Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Manila be 30°C on June 30?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x5e8fafb82669efdf4cf0b6ba3562c10d32b929f013e816744ca02fb5f389091d
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $6,095
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $5,755
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $6,095 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 46 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xac27…7827backed Yes | 3c | 394.57$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.2 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaa93…0bc7backed Yes | 20c | 390.67$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78.26 | 3,859 | 23.4%903 W · 2,956 L | +128.4wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | +10%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed Yes | 30c | 342.16$103 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$103.22 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 70c | 195$136 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.36 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x17bd…f0babacked Yes | 34c | 177.58$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.18 | 112 | 50.9%57 W · 55 L | +6.4wins | +0.06per pick | 45cpaid | -1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 73c | 154.1$112 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.02 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7bed…bf63backed No | 68c | 152.28$104 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.16 | 60 | 48.3%29 W · 31 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | +7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x496f…fa5dbacked Yes | 34c | 117.29$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.85 | 4,514 | 52.9%2,389 W · 2,125 L | +47.8wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8b1b…2caebacked Yes | 33c | 77.75$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.79 | 229 | 37.1%85 W · 144 L | +5.1wins | +0.02per pick | 35cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0fc1…a3bbbacked Yes | 31c | 75$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23 | 876 | 29.2%256 W · 620 L | -53.7wins | -0.06per pick | 35cpaid | -17.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8edc…80d8backed No | 68c | 74.08$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.88 | 1,179 | 56.4%665 W · 514 L | +19.0wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x46f1…701fbacked Yes | 29c | 67.32$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.77 | 2,877 | 55.3%1,590 W · 1,287 L | -59.3wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x942e…be27backed No | 70c | 65$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.65 | 2,010 | 61.5%1,237 W · 773 L | -1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x08ab…cbc4backed No | 68c | 55$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.6 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | -0.8wins | -0.09per pick | 65cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xffd0…cd07backed Yes | 32c | 54$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.28 | 2,311 | 57.7%1,334 W · 977 L | -19.0wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x397c…ca1bbacked Yes | 28c | 50$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 1,285 | 32.8%422 W · 863 L | +24.3wins | +0.02per pick | 31cpaid | +7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xebdb…5ac4backed Yes | 33c | 50$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.5 | 850 | 49.8%423 W · 427 L | -10.4wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 35c | 49.56$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.39 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 31c | 49.56$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.36 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked Yes | 33c | 48$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.84 | 4,988 | 49.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L | -155.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0947…9e92backed Yes | 31c | 45$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.95 | 581 | 52%302 W · 279 L | +8.3wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7328…dbffbacked Yes | 32c | 44.72$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.31 | 1,122 | 24.4%274 W · 848 L | +24.8wins | +0.02per pick | 22cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 31c | 44.29$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.94 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdca4…e93dbacked Yes | 31c | 44.07$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.88 | 2,501 | 45.5%1,138 W · 1,363 L | +26.8wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb31b…b140backed No | 70c | 43.48$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.08 | 559 | 54.7%306 W · 253 L | -3.4wins | -0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed No | 69c | 43.47$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.48 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9fe5…4745backed Yes | 34c | 42.35$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.37 | 186 | 29.6%55 W · 131 L | -15.3wins | -0.08per pick | 38cpaid | -22.2%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed Yes | 31c | 40.72$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.69 | 5,186 | 47.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L | +66.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf01d…bb31backed No | 71c | 40.28$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.68 | 162 | 72.2%117 W · 45 L | +6.7wins | +0.04per pick | 68cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4435…786fbacked No | 70c | 38.82$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.53 | 971 | 52.2%507 W · 464 L | -8.1wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa33d…3ef2backed No | 65c | 38.46$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.46 | 456 | 75.2%343 W · 113 L | +27.6wins | +0.06per pick | 69cpaid | +13%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 65c | 37.9$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.11 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1b8f…e17ebacked Yes | 34c | 35.42$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.91 | 272 | 48.9%133 W · 139 L | -10.1wins | -0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd3b8…6983backed Yes | 34c | 34.92$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 874 | 37.3%326 W · 548 L | +6.9wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | +3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 61c | 33.49$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.95 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8ad3…e651backed No | 67c | 29.7$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.7 | 333 | 51.7%172 W · 161 L | -7.3wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0f12…59ddbacked No | 68c | 29.5$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.44 | 940 | 66.4%624 W · 316 L | +3.4wins | 0.00per pick | 66cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x721a…9295backed Yes | 35c | 29$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.02 | 583 | 58%338 W · 245 L | -2.6wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcfff…673dbacked No | 66c | 21$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.05 | 3,057 | 61.6%1,883 W · 1,174 L | -35.2wins | -0.01per pick | 63cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8144…8472backed No | 64c | 18.46$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.65 | 239 | 58.2%139 W · 100 L | -3.1wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe086…0450backed No | 66c | 18.18$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.11 | 1,243 | 52.5%652 W · 591 L | -18.7wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 67c | 17.7$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.84 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xcc2c…0a2cbacked No | 69c | 15.97$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.96 | 1,550 | 56.7%879 W · 671 L | -83.2wins | -0.05per pick | 62cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8ece…1949backed No | 65c | 15.92$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.62 | 173 | 61.8%107 W · 66 L | -9.8wins | -0.06per pick | 68cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xabb7…df91backed No | 71c | 15.56$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.54 | 945 | 52.5%496 W · 449 L | +27.0wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x38e2…2909backed No | 71c | 15.53$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.53 | 3,479 | 53%1,845 W · 1,634 L | +72.1wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Manila be 30°C on June 30?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Manila be 26°C or below on June 30?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Manila be 27°C on June 30?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Manila be 28°C on June 30?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Manila be 29°C on June 30?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Manila be 31°C on June 30?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Manila be 32°C on June 30?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Manila be 36°C or higher on June 30?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.