MLB · resolved market
Cleveland Guardians vs. Chicago White Sox
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x5e92565b20977f002d4da08745cfbd555a87dd4854f27b7fe58dd1a737f67b5a
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Cleveland Guardiansof Cleveland Guardians, Chicago White Sox
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $12,504
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $14,369
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $12,504 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 23 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x2fe6…ab9dbacked Chicago White Sox | 36c | 2,600$936 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$936 | 237 | 52.7%125 W · 112 L | +7.6wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x70f8…d0d5backed Cleveland Guardians | 64c | 1,599$1,023 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$575.46 | 213 | 56.3%120 W · 93 L | -6.5wins | -0.03per pick | 59cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa6a8…5009backed Cleveland Guardians | 62c | 1,523$944 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$578.88 | 2,274 | 43.2%983 W · 1,291 L | +43.8wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb652…2db4backed Chicago White Sox | 1c | 1,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 73 | 24.7%18 W · 55 L | -9.8wins | -0.13per pick | 38cpaid | -43.1%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x480d…f219backed Chicago White Sox | 38c | 1,000$378 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$377.5 | 1,250 | 52.2%653 W · 597 L | -5.0wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5530…d38dbacked Cleveland Guardians | 73c | 662.82$481 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$181.86 | 2,203 | 50.3%1,108 W · 1,095 L | +29.6wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x24df…e8b2backed Chicago White Sox | 34c | 598.9$207 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$206.6 | 1,203 | 44.2%532 W · 671 L | +20.5wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb786…b18dbacked Cleveland Guardians | 61c | 417.96$255 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$163.3 | 1,591 | 50.3%801 W · 790 L | +68.9wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfaa2…93ccbacked Chicago White Sox | 38c | 390.34$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$149.93 | 248 | 44%109 W · 139 L | -6.2wins | -0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Cleveland Guardians | 63c | 388.29$243 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$144.96 | 9,728 | 46.3%4,506 W · 5,222 L | +32.8wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x481b…74c1backed Chicago White Sox | 8c | 250$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 797 | 40.4%322 W · 475 L | -19.1wins | -0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xef63…96cbbacked Cleveland Guardians | 64c | 250$160 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$90 | 467 | 53.7%251 W · 216 L | -11.0wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd9a0…88eebacked Cleveland Guardians | 64c | 200$127 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73 | 283 | 48.8%138 W · 145 L | +6.3wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Chicago White Sox | 28c | 164.92$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.52 | 639 | 42.7%273 W · 366 L | +4.0wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8b7e…6a9fbacked Cleveland Guardians | 65c | 153.85$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.85 | 2,033 | 52.4%1,066 W · 967 L | -35.5wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x994e…9cf5backed Cleveland Guardians | 64c | 92.24$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.21 | 211 | 47.9%101 W · 110 L | +1.4wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdc4b…5a92backed Cleveland Guardians | 65c | 76.92$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.92 | 2,267 | 53.3%1,208 W · 1,059 L | -12.4wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa337…9e54backed Cleveland Guardians | 67c | 73.46$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.31 | 944 | 55.3%522 W · 422 L | -2.9wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x29c0…efaabacked Cleveland Guardians | 62c | 47.13$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.7 | 1,212 | 52.1%631 W · 581 L | +21.3wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0643…d46bbacked Cleveland Guardians | 65c | 33.85$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.85 | 405 | 57.8%234 W · 171 L | +7.6wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xad18…0b4fbacked Cleveland Guardians | 61c | 29.92$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.67 | 513 | 34.5%177 W · 336 L | -31.2wins | -0.06per pick | 41cpaid | -19.8%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x13cd…245dbacked Cleveland Guardians | 65c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7 | 23 | 56.5%13 W · 10 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x368c…b415backed Cleveland Guardians | 64c | 15.63$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.63 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.36per pick | 64cpaid | +56.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.