Asian League · resolved market
Shenzhen Xinpengcheng FC vs. Zhejiang Zhiye FC: O/U 1.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x5e92a178159cae3a204745da5ab24180571d7f69b0e44ef57b2021484d4b4d65
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Asian Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $59,163
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $81,866
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $59,163 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 39 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Asian League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Asian League | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x69e3…761fbacked Over | 50c | 20,000$10,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10,000 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.10per pick | 57cpaid | +14.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 50c | 16,153$8,105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$8,104.62 | 5,946 | 46.1%2,743 W · 3,203 L | +50.5wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9f15…bdb3backed Under | 46c | 8,654$3,981 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,980.84 | 68 | 45.6%31 W · 37 L | -3.4wins | -0.05per pick | 51cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x482a…c85dbacked Under | 19c | 4,657$878 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$877.8 | 33 | 36.4%12 W · 21 L | +1.0wins | +0.03per pick | 33cpaid | -39.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x86c8…c867backed Over | 54c | 4,176$2,255 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,921.18 | 32 | 68.8%22 W · 10 L | +3.0wins | +0.09per pick | 59cpaid | +19.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x976a…e8ecbacked Over | 54c | 2,502$1,351 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,151.15 | 263 | 48.7%128 W · 135 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +19.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4348…f08abacked Under | 50c | 1,800$900 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$899.77 | 89 | 53.9%48 W · 41 L | +5.9wins | +0.07per pick | 47cpaid | +29.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x274b…d408backed Over | 49c | 1,016$498 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$518.15 | 71 | 49.3%35 W · 36 L | +5.0wins | +0.07per pick | 42cpaid | +17.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2983…4eb2backed Under | 52c | 955.55$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 62 | 38.7%24 W · 38 L | -5.5wins | -0.09per pick | 48cpaid | -18.3%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x24ae…d35bbacked Over | 45c | 699.98$315 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$384.99 | 52 | 44.2%23 W · 29 L | -2.2wins | -0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1ba2…d212backed Under | 50c | 613.8$307 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$306.9 | 261 | 36.8%96 W · 165 L | -18.0wins | -0.07per pick | 44cpaid | -27.7%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6b23…04a3backed Under | 50c | 600$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 245 | 48.6%119 W · 126 L | -1.4wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5929…4684backed Over | 54c | 572.63$309 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$263.41 | 363 | 52.9%192 W · 171 L | -1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3f58…d93abacked Over | 54c | 412$222 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$189.52 | 34 | 38.2%13 W · 21 L | +1.1wins | +0.03per pick | 35cpaid | -3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Over | 68c | 353.97$242 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$111.84 | 2,522 | 42.3%1,067 W · 1,455 L | +54.6wins | +0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3654…1b78backed Under | 50c | 290$145 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$145 | 181 | 61.9%112 W · 69 L | +9.4wins | +0.05per pick | 57cpaid | +8.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb6d2…d67bbacked Over | 54c | 248.48$134 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$114.3 | 375 | 59.2%222 W · 153 L | +12.0wins | +0.03per pick | 56cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0176…910ebacked Over | 45c | 200$90 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$110 | 97 | 56.7%55 W · 42 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x92f5…52a2backed Under | 50c | 199.17$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.56 | 75 | 53.3%40 W · 35 L | +4.6wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +9.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfd3e…5a7abacked Over | 54c | 188.3$102 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$86.62 | 104 | 54.8%57 W · 47 L | -1.9wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x56f6…cda7backed Over | 54c | 185.18$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85.18 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.08per pick | 52cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdc85…aa54backed Over | 54c | 179.67$97 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$82.65 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xca75…05a6backed Under | 51c | 175.45$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90 | 20 | 45%9 W · 11 L | -1.3wins | -0.07per pick | 52cpaid | -20%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x22da…2866backed Under | 50c | 175.1$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87.55 | 319 | 60.2%192 W · 127 L | +2.0wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc785…4ef2backed Over | 51c | 120.06$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.03 | 101 | 56.4%57 W · 44 L | +3.1wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd6cf…0425backed Over | 55c | 108.98$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.04 | 13 | 30.8%4 W · 9 L | -3.8wins | -0.29per pick | 60cpaid | -52%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xa7c2…73bfbacked Under | 58c | 100$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58 | 117 | 31.6%37 W · 80 L | -6.7wins | -0.06per pick | 37cpaid | -21%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xcb5f…9a43backed Over | 54c | 90.52$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.64 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0d4f…000ebacked Over | 54c | 86.03$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.57 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +0.6wins | +0.08per pick | 55cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb4cd…c041backed Under | 30c | 78.34$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.65 | 23 | 47.8%11 W · 12 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x962e…1d75backed Under | 50c | 65.52$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.76 | 18 | 61.1%11 W · 7 L | +0.5wins | +0.03per pick | 58cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb284…b1fbbacked Under | 51c | 64.34$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.79 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -20.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd170…a9d9backed Over | 47c | 59.99$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.8 | 28 | 39.3%11 W · 17 L | -0.9wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xae3b…e06ebacked Under | 50c | 53.9$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.95 | 26 | 38.5%10 W · 16 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | +25.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0d5f…1171backed Under | 50c | 49.24$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.62 | 166 | 59.6%99 W · 67 L | -3.5wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2ed3…274cbacked Under | 50c | 45.6$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.8 | 39 | 56.4%22 W · 17 L | +2.7wins | +0.07per pick | 50cpaid | +9.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbd97…ae50backed Under | 50c | 27.6$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.8 | 19 | 63.2%12 W · 7 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 63cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0e84…2e87backed Under | 52c | 25$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.88 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.4wins | -0.46per pick | 46cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf4bf…2ccdbacked Over | 58c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.4 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | +1.0wins | +0.11per pick | 56cpaid | +19.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Asian League and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 10 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Shenzhen Xinpengcheng FC vs. Zhejiang Zhiye FC: O/U 1.5this page
- Shenzhen Xinpengcheng FC vs. Zhejiang Zhiye FC: Both Teams to ScoreYes won
- Shenzhen Xinpengcheng FC vs. Zhejiang Zhiye FC: O/U 2.5Under won
- Shenzhen Xinpengcheng FC vs. Zhejiang Zhiye FC: O/U 3.5Under won
- Shenzhen Xinpengcheng FC vs. Zhejiang Zhiye FC: Shenzhen Xinpengcheng FC 2nd Half O/U 0.5Over won
- Shenzhen Xinpengcheng FC vs. Zhejiang Zhiye FC: Shenzhen Xinpengcheng FC O/U 0.5Over won
- Shenzhen Xinpengcheng FC vs. Zhejiang Zhiye FC: Shenzhen Xinpengcheng FC O/U 1.5Under won
- Shenzhen Xinpengcheng FC vs. Zhejiang Zhiye FC: Zhejiang Zhiye FC O/U 0.5Over won
- Shenzhen Xinpengcheng FC vs. Zhejiang Zhiye FC: Zhejiang Zhiye FC O/U 1.5Under won
- Spread: Shenzhen Xinpengcheng FC (-2.5)Zhejiang Zhiye FC won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.