AI · resolved market
Will anyone say "GPT" 15+ times during the OpenAI livestream on August 7?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x5ea461148229df71de36bcc369b788ba544e0d1bd2dd5041b4db3311843f1d79
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- AIevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $20,812
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $20,503
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $20,812 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 15 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in AI is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in AI | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x398d…c7c3backed No | 8c | 2,569$216 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$216.07 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -30.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6395…6735backed No | 3c | 2,267$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 21cpaid | -55.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf020…a576backed No | 6c | 1,500$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$89.73 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | +1.5wins | +0.13per pick | 29cpaid | +25.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6828…1056backed No | 7c | 1,002$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.11 | 118 | 50%59 W · 59 L | +12.9wins | +0.11per pick | 39cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xf797…0bf2backed No | 6c | 704.74$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.15 | 126 | 36.5%46 W · 80 L | +5.3wins | +0.04per pick | 32cpaid | +20%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x980a…bb1bbacked No | 9c | 631.49$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.77 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.13per pick | 20cpaid | -33.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbd2a…5392backed No | 6c | 547.9$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.2wins | +0.05per pick | 20cpaid | -56.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x410a…63edbacked No | 5c | 474.57$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.73 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -0.3wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x30c3…5d8ebacked No | 6c | 312.5$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.9 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.3wins | +0.05per pick | 35cpaid | -31.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x42d8…ff9bbacked No | 5c | 300$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.3 | 34 | 14.7%5 W · 29 L | -1.6wins | -0.05per pick | 20cpaid | -17.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x92f4…0f69backed No | 17c | 241.18$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 12 | 25%3 W · 9 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -57%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5936…c2d6backed No | 7c | 214.29$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 22cpaid | -59.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5867…a628backed No | 13c | 188.91$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.37 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x817d…93e9backed No | 31c | 165$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.13 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -51.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6e88…7c09backed No | 9c | 161.66$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.23 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | +1.0wins | +0.17per pick | 16cpaid | +87.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in AI and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 13 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will anyone say "GPT" 15+ times during the OpenAI livestream on August 7?this page
- Will anyone say "Browser" during the OpenAI livestream on August 7?No won
- Will anyone say "China" during the OpenAI livestream on August 7?No won
- Will anyone say "Crypto" or "Bitcoin" during the OpenAI livestream on August 7?No won
- Will anyone say "Deep Research" during the OpenAI livestream on August 7?Yes won
- Will anyone say "Gemini" during the OpenAI livestream on August 7?No won
- Will anyone say "It's a good model" during the OpenAI livestream on August 7?No won
- Will anyone say "Multimodal" during the OpenAI livestream on August 7?Yes won
- Will anyone say "Open Source" during the OpenAI livestream on August 7?No won
- Will anyone say "OpenAI" 5+ times during the OpenAI livestream on August 7?Yes won
- Will anyone say "Roadmap" during the OpenAI livestream on August 7?No won
- Will anyone say "Sam" or "Altman" during the OpenAI livestream on August 7?Yes won
- Will anyone say "Trump" during the OpenAI livestream on August 7?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.