AI · resolved market
Will anyone say "It's a good model" during the OpenAI livestream on August 7?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x9eaa41cbad842371e2bbc5a961b1de83e489f8e2bab4026c143323999933c120
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- AIevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $2,565
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $2,818
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $2,565 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 12 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in AI is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in AI | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x002d…2561backed No | 73c | 200$146 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54 | 38 | 42.1%16 W · 22 L | +3.2wins | +0.08per pick | 34cpaid | +114.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x468f…c2a7backed Yes | 30c | 165.61$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 42 | 28.6%12 W · 30 L | -3.1wins | -0.07per pick | 36cpaid | -55.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x88b0…b118backed No | 68c | 139.24$95 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.3 | 39 | 35.9%14 W · 25 L | -3.9wins | -0.10per pick | 46cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed No | 70c | 100$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30 | 457 | 38.9%178 W · 279 L | -31.3wins | -0.07per pick | 46cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x60b2…3ccebacked Yes | 27c | 100$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27 | 29 | 41.4%12 W · 17 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | +96.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd81f…6b75backed Yes | 27c | 66.47$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.78 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -2.3wins | -0.32per pick | 61cpaid | -61.3%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xe0b8…225dbacked Yes | 33c | 63.64$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -1.8wins | -0.30per pick | 30cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2688…cb00backed Yes | 31c | 60$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.5 | 75 | 36%27 W · 48 L | -1.1wins | -0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -19.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6147…d34ebacked No | 75c | 50$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.5 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2843…b3d2backed Yes | 31c | 39.98$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.4 | 115 | 49.6%57 W · 58 L | +7.4wins | +0.06per pick | 43cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe2be…205dbacked No | 74c | 27.03$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.03 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.06per pick | 31cpaid | -66.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x555c…ee28backed No | 50c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | -0.6wins | -0.07per pick | 57cpaid | -22.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in AI and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 13 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will anyone say "It's a good model" during the OpenAI livestream on August 7?this page
- Will anyone say "Browser" during the OpenAI livestream on August 7?No won
- Will anyone say "China" during the OpenAI livestream on August 7?No won
- Will anyone say "Crypto" or "Bitcoin" during the OpenAI livestream on August 7?No won
- Will anyone say "Deep Research" during the OpenAI livestream on August 7?Yes won
- Will anyone say "GPT" 15+ times during the OpenAI livestream on August 7?Yes won
- Will anyone say "Gemini" during the OpenAI livestream on August 7?No won
- Will anyone say "Multimodal" during the OpenAI livestream on August 7?Yes won
- Will anyone say "Open Source" during the OpenAI livestream on August 7?No won
- Will anyone say "OpenAI" 5+ times during the OpenAI livestream on August 7?Yes won
- Will anyone say "Roadmap" during the OpenAI livestream on August 7?No won
- Will anyone say "Sam" or "Altman" during the OpenAI livestream on August 7?Yes won
- Will anyone say "Trump" during the OpenAI livestream on August 7?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.