AI · resolved market
Will anyone say "Sam" or "Altman" during the OpenAI livestream on August 7?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x0cbecdee2355c98251b06a04d22f4df1c050b419a139673f831e722bd003fd2a
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- AIevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $9,187
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $8,869
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $9,187 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 11 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in AI is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in AI | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x9629…4d6fbacked No | 2c | 3,083$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0562…9d66backed No | 14c | 925$131 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$130.55 | 75 | 40%30 W · 45 L | +5.6wins | +0.08per pick | 32cpaid | +14.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0711…f03cbacked No | 1c | 830.44$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.75 | 193 | 37.3%72 W · 121 L | +9.0wins | +0.05per pick | 33cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xca1e…75edbacked No | 10c | 393.08$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 20 | 60%12 W · 8 L | +4.7wins | +0.24per pick | 36cpaid | +69.3%equal weight | 62+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x0cb1…a76cbacked No | 11c | 225$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.25 | 93 | 33.3%31 W · 62 L | +7.2wins | +0.08per pick | 26cpaid | +10.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa58d…b9b8backed No | 12c | 223.6$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.54 | 301 | 27.2%82 W · 219 L | +1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 27cpaid | -15.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf797…0bf2backed No | 10c | 211.7$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.17 | 126 | 36.5%46 W · 80 L | +5.3wins | +0.04per pick | 32cpaid | +20%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc24f…1acdbacked No | 10c | 200$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 18 | 50%9 W · 9 L | +0.6wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -24%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6828…1056backed No | 10c | 200$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 118 | 50%59 W · 59 L | +12.9wins | +0.11per pick | 39cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x927f…e7e7backed No | 15c | 100$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 37 | 35.1%13 W · 24 L | +0.9wins | +0.03per pick | 33cpaid | +22%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa50f…84cdbacked No | 19c | 91.58$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.4 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -2.7wins | -0.44per pick | 44cpaid | -100%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in AI and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 13 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will anyone say "Sam" or "Altman" during the OpenAI livestream on August 7?this page
- Will anyone say "Browser" during the OpenAI livestream on August 7?No won
- Will anyone say "China" during the OpenAI livestream on August 7?No won
- Will anyone say "Crypto" or "Bitcoin" during the OpenAI livestream on August 7?No won
- Will anyone say "Deep Research" during the OpenAI livestream on August 7?Yes won
- Will anyone say "GPT" 15+ times during the OpenAI livestream on August 7?Yes won
- Will anyone say "Gemini" during the OpenAI livestream on August 7?No won
- Will anyone say "It's a good model" during the OpenAI livestream on August 7?No won
- Will anyone say "Multimodal" during the OpenAI livestream on August 7?Yes won
- Will anyone say "Open Source" during the OpenAI livestream on August 7?No won
- Will anyone say "OpenAI" 5+ times during the OpenAI livestream on August 7?Yes won
- Will anyone say "Roadmap" during the OpenAI livestream on August 7?No won
- Will anyone say "Trump" during the OpenAI livestream on August 7?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.