Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 17°C on July 29?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x5ea93b64113bd8442d9405de81bc3afa625fe966f6f093ca9aa9811e170a8c7e
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $8,516
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $9,721
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $8,516 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 60 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xc9de…81d9backed Yes | 31c | 1,234$385 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$849.1 | 420 | 36.4%153 W · 267 L | +12.3wins | +0.03per pick | 34cpaid | +11.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd498…a6c5backed No | 69c | 400$276 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$276 | 1,710 | 47.8%818 W · 892 L | -48.2wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed No | 63c | 367.49$231 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$230.76 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2f98…e397backed Yes | 39c | 343.33$134 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$209.04 | 331 | 54.4%180 W · 151 L | +7.9wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb5f4…3fdbbacked Yes | 41c | 244.64$99 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$145.18 | 273 | 35.9%98 W · 175 L | +3.0wins | +0.01per pick | 35cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3a1f…4877backed Yes | 37c | 201.3$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$126.82 | 801 | 30.8%247 W · 554 L | +1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xee2d…6968backed Yes | 69c | 175.68$121 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.73 | 69 | 40.6%28 W · 41 L | -3.2wins | -0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -29.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9506…1c4fbacked No | 63c | 160.17$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.91 | 815 | 58.5%477 W · 338 L | +12.6wins | +0.02per pick | 57cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x31b1…11d2backed Yes | 50c | 160$81 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$79.28 | 105 | 53.3%56 W · 49 L | +15.0wins | +0.14per pick | 39cpaid | +40.1%equal weight | 63+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x5028…91c5backed Yes | 37c | 156.04$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$98.58 | 886 | 28.9%256 W · 630 L | -22.6wins | -0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -41.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe040…824fbacked No | 43c | 140$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.95 | 4,267 | 53.4%2,279 W · 1,988 L | +156.0wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb392…f22cbacked Yes | 64c | 125.22$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.22 | 36 | 63.9%23 W · 13 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2fef…816bbacked No | 65c | 115$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.5 | 44 | 52.3%23 W · 21 L | -3.2wins | -0.07per pick | 60cpaid | -21.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdaff…b3f9backed Yes | 38c | 107.73$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.31 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.62per pick | 38cpaid | +166.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaff9…64ffbacked Yes | 38c | 104.99$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.55 | 2,674 | 30%803 W · 1,871 L | +5.4wins | 0.00per pick | 30cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc662…0927backed No | 68c | 100.9$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.82 | 1,190 | 57.9%689 W · 501 L | -5.0wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb84c…e169backed No | 61c | 100$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61 | 417 | 52%217 W · 200 L | -11.4wins | -0.03per pick | 55cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xeee9…f66fbacked Yes | 35c | 90$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.5 | 135 | 42.2%57 W · 78 L | -10.2wins | -0.08per pick | 50cpaid | -26.1%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7342…d5b4backed No | 60c | 80$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.3 | 159 | 66.7%106 W · 53 L | +8.5wins | +0.05per pick | 61cpaid | +10.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 41c | 76.32$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.07 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x2612…5289backed No | 48c | 76.09$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.89 | 3,048 | 40.5%1,234 W · 1,814 L | -121.5wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x655c…4420backed No | 68c | 76$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.68 | 895 | 57.2%512 W · 383 L | +7.7wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd23f…94a1backed No | 27c | 72.03$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.52 | 2,617 | 59.5%1,556 W · 1,061 L | -41.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xffd0…cd07backed No | 69c | 70$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.3 | 2,311 | 57.7%1,334 W · 977 L | -19.0wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7956…eba5backed Yes | 40c | 68.23$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.23 | 1,048 | 38.1%399 W · 649 L | -3.8wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1d69…7a63backed No | 68c | 55$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.5 | 1,075 | 54.8%589 W · 486 L | -17.0wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xec62…9191backed Yes | 38c | 52.63$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.63 | 1,102 | 40.7%448 W · 654 L | +18.7wins | +0.02per pick | 39cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3f0b…d571backed Yes | 33c | 50.45$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.55 | 2,225 | 49.2%1,094 W · 1,131 L | -12.0wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd62b…ceecbacked No | 63c | 50$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.5 | 16 | 37.5%6 W · 10 L | -4.1wins | -0.26per pick | 63cpaid | -46.6%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xcfff…673dbacked No | 44c | 49$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.71 | 3,057 | 61.6%1,883 W · 1,174 L | -35.2wins | -0.01per pick | 63cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x496f…fa5dbacked No | 61c | 44$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.96 | 4,514 | 52.9%2,389 W · 2,125 L | +47.8wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 67c | 42.68$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.6 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 62c | 40$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.7 | 4,547 | 58.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L | -107.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdd73…3cc0backed No | 69c | 40$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.6 | 69 | 68.1%47 W · 22 L | -1.6wins | -0.02per pick | 70cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 80c | 39.91$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.14 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc4f9…8d24backed Yes | 49c | 39$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.89 | 477 | 38.8%185 W · 292 L | +18.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xac24…576ebacked No | 39c | 38.38$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.02 | 233 | 34.3%80 W · 153 L | -6.6wins | -0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -25.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1a92…35bcbacked Yes | 70c | 37.62$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.46 | 449 | 45.9%206 W · 243 L | +10.2wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8383…cb59backed No | 34c | 35.61$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.11 | 495 | 43.6%216 W · 279 L | +31.2wins | +0.06per pick | 37cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 35c | 33.21$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.46 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 36c | 33$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.12 | 2,823 | 11.2%316 W · 2,507 L | +17.7wins | +0.01per pick | 11cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf33e…0ab8backed No | 69c | 30$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.7 | 192 | 59.4%114 W · 78 L | -3.7wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc8a2…c9b6backed No | 69c | 30$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.7 | 91 | 58.2%53 W · 38 L | -5.2wins | -0.06per pick | 64cpaid | -10%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfaf3…782cbacked No | 63c | 30$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.9 | 1,876 | 63%1,181 W · 695 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 63cpaid | 0%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6cb1…0f6ebacked No | 69c | 30$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.7 | 25 | 68%17 W · 8 L | +2.1wins | +0.08per pick | 60cpaid | +16.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x294f…ff6ebacked Yes | 72c | 30$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.4 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -21%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7ae4…fc82backed Yes | 41c | 29.59$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.5 | 2,530 | 50.4%1,275 W · 1,255 L | -48.9wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9e97…7773backed No | 61c | 24.61$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.11 | 122 | 71.3%87 W · 35 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 72cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x558f…1a56backed No | 62c | 23.69$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.69 | 548 | 67.3%369 W · 179 L | +26.4wins | +0.05per pick | 63cpaid | +10.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe54c…2c69backed No | 62c | 22$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.69 | 255 | 60.8%155 W · 100 L | +16.2wins | +0.06per pick | 54cpaid | +14%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8971…809dbacked No | 53c | 21.94$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.63 | 1,959 | 46%901 W · 1,058 L | -51.3wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked No | 60c | 21$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.6 | 4,988 | 49.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L | -155.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2a20…89d2backed No | 69c | 20$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.8 | 317 | 66.9%212 W · 105 L | -2.9wins | -0.01per pick | 68cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3c3e…5a86backed No | 63c | 20$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.6 | 46 | 65.2%30 W · 16 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 67cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x764b…6badbacked No | 66c | 20$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.2 | 3,755 | 61.1%2,293 W · 1,462 L | -36.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x43fd…59d3backed No | 69c | 20$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.8 | 159 | 61.6%98 W · 61 L | -5.7wins | -0.04per pick | 65cpaid | -7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xae7a…25eabacked No | 60c | 20$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 927 | 61.7%572 W · 355 L | +5.5wins | +0.01per pick | 61cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcb58…ccd0backed No | 69c | 20$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.8 | 160 | 65.6%105 W · 55 L | -5.3wins | -0.03per pick | 69cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7a5c…767bbacked No | 69c | 20$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.8 | 57 | 56.1%32 W · 25 L | -7.3wins | -0.13per pick | 69cpaid | -18.7%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x7df0…0dfebacked No | 62c | 18$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.16 | 3,642 | 65.9%2,400 W · 1,242 L | +33.6wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 17°C on July 29?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 15°C on July 29?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 16°C on July 29?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 18°C on July 29?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.