Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on April 6?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x5ed0ceaf85e6908b3af099d21c0c5a41d52fa9aaab680c034b03750ffcb10042
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $33,433
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $43,664
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $33,433 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 58 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xab08…8825backed No | 1c | 3,059$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.07 | 15 | 46.7%7 W · 8 L | -0.5wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -33.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa912…297fbacked No | 1c | 1,095$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.58 | 636 | 56.1%357 W · 279 L | +1.9wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | -4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2fd9…2d15backed No | 19c | 1,089$208 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$208.21 | 22 | 31.8%7 W · 15 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -19.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x10d5…33fdbacked Yes | 74c | 566.68$422 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$145.07 | 308 | 32.5%100 W · 208 L | +14.7wins | +0.05per pick | 28cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x37c7…c06cbacked Yes | 78c | 514.67$404 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$110.66 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3cc1…2ababacked Yes | 66c | 481.81$316 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$166.2 | 49 | 34.7%17 W · 32 L | +2.7wins | +0.05per pick | 29cpaid | -13.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xad50…3122backed Yes | 79c | 381.1$301 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$79.78 | 474 | 23.6%112 W · 362 L | +2.5wins | +0.01per pick | 23cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x050a…9a4abacked No | 45c | 177.94$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.29 | 21 | 57.1%12 W · 9 L | +1.0wins | +0.05per pick | 53cpaid | +57.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x01ce…27a2backed Yes | 33c | 177.3$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$118.47 | 553 | 36.7%203 W · 350 L | +4.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0b87…9414backed No | 30c | 166.67$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 2,001 | 38.4%768 W · 1,233 L | +1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 71c | 156.29$110 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.89 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1361…f12bbacked Yes | 32c | 151.69$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$103.44 | 1,924 | 33.8%651 W · 1,273 L | +29.2wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | +1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x905c…14b5backed Yes | 69c | 140.28$97 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.81 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -18.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3c2…df3dbacked Yes | 71c | 114.62$81 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.2 | 1,840 | 37%681 W · 1,159 L | -8.2wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf7f4…1e34backed Yes | 41c | 114.59$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.04 | 1,312 | 45%590 W · 722 L | +33.6wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x124b…a12cbacked Yes | 75c | 107.27$81 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.6 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | -1.1wins | -0.10per pick | 65cpaid | -16.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2ccd…383bbacked Yes | 55c | 99.77$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.9 | 208 | 66.8%139 W · 69 L | +8.9wins | +0.04per pick | 63cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x859c…38e4backed No | 14c | 98.48$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.71 | 21 | 14.3%3 W · 18 L | -1.9wins | -0.09per pick | 23cpaid | -66.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xaa93…0bc7backed Yes | 28c | 97.01$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.49 | 3,859 | 23.4%903 W · 2,956 L | +128.4wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | +10%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x40fd…7765backed No | 48c | 96.52$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.17 | 29 | 37.9%11 W · 18 L | -2.5wins | -0.09per pick | 47cpaid | -36.2%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6f0b…2116backed No | 46c | 94.95$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.24 | 31 | 22.6%7 W · 24 L | -2.1wins | -0.07per pick | 29cpaid | -51.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8f34…2f50backed No | 53c | 90.21$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.75 | 4,120 | 60.8%2,506 W · 1,614 L | +32.7wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6ad7…347abacked No | 68c | 75.44$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.44 | 729 | 52.4%382 W · 347 L | +34.9wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +9.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x64b0…ab64backed No | 69c | 74.61$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.48 | 294 | 59.5%175 W · 119 L | +20.7wins | +0.07per pick | 52cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc931…7d46backed No | 50c | 74.47$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.9 | 141 | 58.2%82 W · 59 L | -5.2wins | -0.04per pick | 62cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x917f…de46backed No | 76c | 64.02$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.7 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | -1.9wins | -0.16per pick | 49cpaid | -42.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4d2f…bad2backed No | 26c | 60.67$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.58 | 58 | 37.9%22 W · 36 L | +0.9wins | +0.02per pick | 36cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0729…0fa3backed Yes | 79c | 58.72$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.55 | 42 | 61.9%26 W · 16 L | +2.3wins | +0.05per pick | 57cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7cc8…2389backed Yes | 33c | 57.13$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.47 | 171 | 56.7%97 W · 74 L | +1.5wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1fe0…64b7backed No | 36c | 51.28$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.46 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | -1.0wins | -0.09per pick | 36cpaid | -35.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7a0e…c7a6backed Yes | 38c | 50$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31 | 67 | 34.3%23 W · 44 L | -2.1wins | -0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -27.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2986…b3a9backed No | 30c | 50$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 2,995 | 31.4%940 W · 2,055 L | +41.6wins | +0.01per pick | 30cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe3c4…e793backed Yes | 38c | 48.9$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.13 | 42 | 23.8%10 W · 32 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 23cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe2a1…20f9backed No | 59c | 43.32$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.56 | 340 | 57.1%194 W · 146 L | -3.7wins | -0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc9f0…46bebacked Yes | 71c | 41.03$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.9 | 54 | 53.7%29 W · 25 L | +5.2wins | +0.10per pick | 44cpaid | +44.4%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xfafd…123fbacked No | 47c | 40.57$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.93 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.9wins | -0.22per pick | 47cpaid | -43.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5e5d…9491backed No | 55c | 40.5$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.28 | 308 | 59.1%182 W · 126 L | -10.3wins | -0.03per pick | 62cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xec25…dec6backed Yes | 67c | 39.16$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.92 | 111 | 72.1%80 W · 31 L | +7.6wins | +0.07per pick | 65cpaid | +8.5%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5245…00c4backed Yes | 52c | 39.13$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.88 | 296 | 40.5%120 W · 176 L | -7.7wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x10b0…137ebacked No | 72c | 39$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.08 | 136 | 63.2%86 W · 50 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 64cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7e24…7379backed Yes | 32c | 38.76$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.48 | 456 | 19.1%87 W · 369 L | -11.8wins | -0.03per pick | 22cpaid | -24%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x966c…087fbacked No | 54c | 37.71$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.52 | 441 | 47.4%209 W · 232 L | -17.5wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa2c6…d14dbacked Yes | 27c | 37.04$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.04 | 33 | 9.1%3 W · 30 L | -1.0wins | -0.03per pick | 12cpaid | -66.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3182…4ff7backed No | 72c | 34.36$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.74 | 141 | 68.1%96 W · 45 L | -3.6wins | -0.03per pick | 71cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7515…0f90backed No | 67c | 31.72$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.4 | 159 | 54.7%87 W · 72 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfbc7…efe3backed Yes | 33c | 31.32$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.06 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.67per pick | 33cpaid | +205.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbf31…454abacked No | 67c | 30.88$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.69 | 191 | 52.9%101 W · 90 L | -7.7wins | -0.04per pick | 57cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x72d0…52f0backed Yes | 48c | 30$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.6 | 68 | 45.6%31 W · 37 L | +3.3wins | +0.05per pick | 41cpaid | +10.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6ff7…931dbacked Yes | 53c | 29.42$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.89 | 35 | 48.6%17 W · 18 L | -1.2wins | -0.04per pick | 52cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x13e1…0805backed No | 48c | 29.39$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.11 | 48 | 56.3%27 W · 21 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb49f…1821backed No | 66c | 25.24$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.62 | 1,061 | 53.2%564 W · 497 L | +33.5wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4973…5527backed Yes | 78c | 24.14$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.37 | 300 | 46.7%140 W · 160 L | -8.4wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -15.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 67c | 24.05$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.01 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x4925…8f6cbacked No | 60c | 23.23$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.94 | 98 | 58.2%57 W · 41 L | -2.1wins | -0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x90c5…fb31backed Yes | 62c | 19.23$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.39 | 169 | 44.4%75 W · 94 L | +18.5wins | +0.11per pick | 33cpaid | +32.5%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x542f…5473backed Yes | 58c | 18.17$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.61 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.42per pick | 58cpaid | +72.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2654…b45fbacked Yes | 58c | 17.49$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.31 | 1,089 | 59.4%647 W · 442 L | +2.3wins | 0.00per pick | 59cpaid | -4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe9da…ed70backed No | 73c | 17.4$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.7 | 763 | 71.4%545 W · 218 L | +11.2wins | +0.01per pick | 70cpaid | +2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on April 6?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 25°C on April 6?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 26°C on April 6?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 27°C on April 6?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on April 6?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.