F1 · resolved market
Will Lando Norris achieve pole position in Sprint Qualifying at the 2025 F1 Brazilian Grand Prix?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x5ed7a09045e911e492378899bf5a32a439521befbe186b66961f35156bdf4ec2
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- F1every record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $17,301
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $20,233
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $17,301 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 19 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in F1 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in F1 | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed No | 1c | 6,040$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.37 | 376 | 6.9%26 W · 350 L | -4.3wins | -0.01per pick | 8cpaid | -67.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe786…b716backed Yes | 42c | 2,358$1,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,358.22 | 6 | 83.3%5 W · 1 L | +1.8wins | +0.29per pick | 54cpaid | +74.9%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x53ab…65aabacked No | 66c | 555$366 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$366.3 | 100 | 51%51 W · 49 L | -2.4wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd277…73febacked Yes | 30c | 321.4$96 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$224.98 | 26 | 73.1%19 W · 7 L | +9.1wins | +0.35per pick | 38cpaid | +117.3%equal weight | 70+0.18 edge/pick |
| 0x3257…2f3bbacked Yes | 55c | 243.46$134 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$109.56 | 53 | 37.7%20 W · 33 L | -4.0wins | -0.08per pick | 45cpaid | -37%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb410…7736backed No | 65c | 200$129 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$129 | 20 | 80%16 W · 4 L | +3.9wins | +0.20per pick | 60cpaid | +49%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x2af2…3965backed Yes | 42c | 142.86$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$82.86 | 5 | 100%5 W · 0 L | +1.8wins | +0.37per pick | 63cpaid | +65.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc6ad…578fbacked Yes | 42c | 119.04$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.04 | 14 | 28.6%4 W · 10 L | -1.8wins | -0.13per pick | 41cpaid | -40.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf802…d91dbacked Yes | 35c | 100$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65 | 53 | 34%18 W · 35 L | +1.2wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | +11.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4caf…6de9backed Yes | 42c | 97.82$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.35 | 35 | 34.3%12 W · 23 L | +1.4wins | +0.04per pick | 30cpaid | -14.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x99f6…46eabacked Yes | 78c | 69.99$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.2 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -24.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6079…81c6backed Yes | 38c | 40$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.8 | 55 | 40%22 W · 33 L | +0.9wins | +0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4959…a6f5backed No | 56c | 37.44$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.84 | 76 | 59.2%45 W · 31 L | +3.0wins | +0.04per pick | 55cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x76dc…17b4backed No | 62c | 32.54$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.17 | 126 | 46.8%59 W · 67 L | +10.3wins | +0.08per pick | 39cpaid | +35.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xeecc…6930backed No | 45c | 31.87$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.34 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.07per pick | 40cpaid | -42.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x720a…bbebbacked Yes | 77c | 31.31$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.31 | 12 | 66.7%8 W · 4 L | +1.5wins | +0.13per pick | 54cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf1e2…1f9abacked Yes | 76c | 26.46$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.35 | 247 | 20.6%51 W · 196 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 21cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x97e5…cf32backed Yes | 76c | 26.32$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.32 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.06per pick | 73cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd458…b521backed Yes | 77c | 19.44$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.47 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.28per pick | 72cpaid | +40.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in F1 and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Lando Norris achieve pole position in Sprint Qualifying at the 2025 F1 Brazilian Grand Prix?this page
- Will Charles Leclerc achieve pole position in Sprint Qualifying at the 2025 F1 Brazilian Grand Prix?No won
- Will George Russell achieve pole position in Sprint Qualifying at the 2025 F1 Brazilian Grand Prix?No won
- Will Max Verstappen achieve pole position in Sprint Qualifying at the 2025 F1 Brazilian Grand Prix?No won
- Will Oscar Piastri achieve pole position in Sprint Qualifying at the 2025 F1 Brazilian Grand Prix?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.