College Football · resolved market
Will San Diego State beat New Mexico?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x5ee10bc30266aef2e5e7db2e52ed5c9944c121291d5f6d310869be760b2696c2
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- New Mexicoof SDSU, New Mexico
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- College Footballevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $12,861
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $13,073
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $12,861 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 40 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in College Football is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in College Football | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xd398…c487backed New Mexico | 50c | 6,853$3,403 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,449.51 | 22 | 50%11 W · 11 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0269…cb2dbacked SDSU | 50c | 3,936$1,968 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,967.77 | 231 | 45.5%105 W · 126 L | -4.6wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7ba5…aaf1backed New Mexico | 50c | 1,400$700 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$700 | 152 | 52.6%80 W · 72 L | +9.9wins | +0.07per pick | 46cpaid | +15.2%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x480d…f219backed SDSU | 57c | 1,000$570 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$570 | 398 | 47.7%190 W · 208 L | -6.5wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x438a…62e5backed SDSU | 52c | 999.98$520 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$519.99 | 17 | 41.2%7 W · 10 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 41cpaid | -25.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4a64…4430backed SDSU | 51c | 900$459 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$459 | 203 | 41.9%85 W · 118 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x306b…3ec5backed New Mexico | 49c | 546.44$267 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$278.98 | 28 | 64.3%18 W · 10 L | +6.7wins | +0.24per pick | 40cpaid | +57.9%equal weight | 64+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0xac97…a99ebacked SDSU | 51c | 474.14$242 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$241.81 | 46 | 41.3%19 W · 27 L | -1.9wins | -0.04per pick | 45cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2805…76edbacked SDSU | 50c | 467.33$234 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$233.67 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.8wins | -0.59per pick | 59cpaid | -100%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xee00…cea1backed New Mexico | 43c | 446.59$192 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$254.56 | 170 | 48.2%82 W · 88 L | +3.6wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x37c1…e0c9backed SDSU | 47c | 377.73$177 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$176.73 | 58 | 58.6%34 W · 24 L | +1.4wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe897…513ebacked SDSU | 57c | 331.63$189 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$189.03 | 53 | 39.6%21 W · 32 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -18.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5199…382bbacked SDSU | 49c | 329.32$163 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$162.64 | 42 | 35.7%15 W · 27 L | -3.8wins | -0.09per pick | 45cpaid | -17.2%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb7c8…24dcbacked SDSU | 54c | 173$94 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$93.89 | 22 | 22.7%5 W · 17 L | -5.4wins | -0.24per pick | 47cpaid | -52.1%equal weight | 37-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x19f8…98f9backed New Mexico | 71c | 140.85$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.85 | 63 | 58.7%37 W · 26 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2fb4…2794backed New Mexico | 45c | 119.99$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.99 | 26 | 46.2%12 W · 14 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1bbb…a8fbbacked SDSU | 55c | 100$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55 | 40 | 55%22 W · 18 L | -1.0wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdc4b…5a92backed SDSU | 52c | 100$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52 | 188 | 58%109 W · 79 L | +5.6wins | +0.03per pick | 55cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x304c…1e74backed SDSU | 53c | 99.06$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.5 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.53per pick | 53cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x057d…27a3backed SDSU | 53c | 99.06$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.5 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.53per pick | 53cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5bba…4d56backed SDSU | 53c | 99.06$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.5 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.53per pick | 53cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3a54…f87ebacked SDSU | 53c | 99.06$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.5 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.53per pick | 53cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd1a7…6cf7backed SDSU | 53c | 99.06$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.5 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.53per pick | 53cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xedb5…b46cbacked SDSU | 53c | 99.06$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.5 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.0wins | -0.49per pick | 49cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd0f3…ff03backed SDSU | 53c | 99.06$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.5 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.53per pick | 53cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x18d3…65a2backed SDSU | 53c | 99.06$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.5 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.53per pick | 53cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7078…d454backed New Mexico | 48c | 98.96$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.46 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.0wins | +0.52per pick | 48cpaid | +106.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8bc5…7737backed New Mexico | 48c | 98.96$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.46 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.52per pick | 48cpaid | +108.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x270c…bfabbacked New Mexico | 48c | 98.96$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.46 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.52per pick | 48cpaid | +108.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaf78…5fcdbacked New Mexico | 48c | 98.96$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.46 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.52per pick | 48cpaid | +108.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xba08…f4efbacked New Mexico | 48c | 98.96$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.46 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.52per pick | 48cpaid | +108.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x274b…0868backed New Mexico | 48c | 98.96$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.46 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.52per pick | 48cpaid | +108.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcae5…2c29backed New Mexico | 48c | 98.96$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.46 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.52per pick | 48cpaid | +108.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x241f…1bb6backed New Mexico | 48c | 98.96$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.46 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.52per pick | 48cpaid | +108.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfe4f…5241backed New Mexico | 48c | 96.95$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.13 | 14 | 21.4%3 W · 11 L | -3.1wins | -0.22per pick | 43cpaid | -60.3%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x35f3…657fbacked SDSU | 57c | 89.25$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.87 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.57per pick | 57cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb579…f458backed SDSU | 50c | 60$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 126 | 41.3%52 W · 74 L | -1.8wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd7cb…b857backed SDSU | 52c | 55$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.6 | 16 | 50%8 W · 8 L | +1.4wins | +0.09per pick | 41cpaid | +22%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4975…c492backed SDSU | 54c | 21.13$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.41 | 16 | 37.5%6 W · 10 L | -2.4wins | -0.15per pick | 52cpaid | -36.7%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x49d1…7b96backed SDSU | 52c | 21.04$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.94 | 78 | 46.2%36 W · 42 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in College Football and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will San Diego State beat New Mexico?this page
- Will San Diego State and New Mexico combine for 67 or more points?Under won
- Will San Diego State beat New Mexico by 3 or more points?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.