Serie A · resolved market
Will AC Milan vs. Bologna end in a draw?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x5ef311e3edab34b0d0a3269791e8189657e08c0243f416e884ab0220062e181f
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Serie Aevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $8,317
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $8,892
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $8,317 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 26 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Serie A is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Serie A | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Yes | 40c | 3,410$1,353 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,353.02 | 2,538 | 45.9%1,164 W · 1,374 L | +13.8wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcef7…e7d7backed No | 59c | 3,000$1,770 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,230 | 84 | 57.1%48 W · 36 L | +7.1wins | +0.08per pick | 49cpaid | +9%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x9920…8f8ebacked Yes | 18c | 561$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.98 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.6wins | +0.15per pick | 36cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0709…f2edbacked Yes | 17c | 498.25$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$83 | 41 | 34.1%14 W · 27 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6324…95b9backed Yes | 28c | 355.03$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.51 | 17 | 29.4%5 W · 12 L | -1.5wins | -0.09per pick | 38cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf142…57e7backed No | 71c | 314.66$223 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$91.25 | 225 | 51.6%116 W · 109 L | +5.6wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +12.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf68a…5b1bbacked No | 72c | 158.93$114 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.5 | 160 | 45%72 W · 88 L | -4.4wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7d24…a93fbacked No | 65c | 154$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.9 | 71 | 66.2%47 W · 24 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd82a…5fcfbacked No | 73c | 150$109 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41 | 89 | 58.4%52 W · 37 L | +3.9wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +9.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdc76…7842backed No | 73c | 149.99$109 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.5 | 5 | 100%5 W · 0 L | +1.3wins | +0.27per pick | 73cpaid | +37.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x328e…dc42backed No | 72c | 132$95 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.96 | 19 | 52.6%10 W · 9 L | -0.8wins | -0.04per pick | 57cpaid | -16.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfeb4…0c34backed Yes | 28c | 100$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28 | 27 | 33.3%9 W · 18 L | -2.6wins | -0.10per pick | 43cpaid | -23%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x62fe…1d08backed Yes | 29c | 100$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.9wins | -0.31per pick | 31cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2129…4222backed No | 65c | 80.39$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.49 | 246 | 57.3%141 W · 105 L | +3.3wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa9d3…9d4bbacked No | 72c | 80$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.4 | 285 | 56.1%160 W · 125 L | +1.8wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | +2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3486…49eebacked Yes | 29c | 68.97$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 267 | 44.6%119 W · 148 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x985c…e5d2backed Yes | 29c | 52.41$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.8wins | -0.26per pick | 26cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa270…42c9backed Yes | 27c | 50$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.5 | 15 | 46.7%7 W · 8 L | +2.1wins | +0.14per pick | 33cpaid | +27.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x74b2…05e0backed Yes | 28c | 50$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.2wins | -0.39per pick | 39cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x781c…db68backed No | 77c | 40$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.2 | 200 | 33%66 W · 134 L | -5.5wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -34.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x117a…a264backed Yes | 28c | 37.5$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.5 | 18 | 72.2%13 W · 5 L | +3.3wins | +0.18per pick | 54cpaid | +23.9%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xab3b…a825backed No | 74c | 27.1$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.1 | 19 | 73.7%14 W · 5 L | +2.1wins | +0.11per pick | 62cpaid | +17.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4e0a…e4e6backed No | 72c | 27$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.56 | 284 | 58.1%165 W · 119 L | +12.6wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd975…0a3ebacked No | 74c | 27$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.02 | 24 | 45.8%11 W · 13 L | -0.6wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -28.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9d5f…84bfbacked No | 73c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.4 | 9 | 77.8%7 W · 2 L | +0.8wins | +0.08per pick | 69cpaid | +12.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdf2e…ddecbacked No | 70c | 16.67$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5 | 85 | 58.8%50 W · 35 L | +3.1wins | +0.04per pick | 55cpaid | +18.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Serie A and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will AC Milan vs. Bologna end in a draw?this page
- Will AC Milan win on 2025-09-14?Yes won
- Will Bologna win on 2025-09-14?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.