Serie A · resolved market
Will Bologna win on 2025-09-14?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x8e4b514c986e1e88570fc2153879b459a9ddbd1df99504029aab3acad3ae1bb6
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Serie Aevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $36,494
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $40,081
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $36,494 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 48 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Serie A is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Serie A | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xf68a…5b1bbacked Yes | 19c | 10,500$1,995 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,995 | 160 | 45%72 W · 88 L | -4.4wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcef7…e7d7backed Yes | 24c | 3,000$720 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$720 | 84 | 57.1%48 W · 36 L | +7.1wins | +0.08per pick | 49cpaid | +9%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x9920…8f8ebacked Yes | 20c | 3,000$600 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$600 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.6wins | +0.15per pick | 36cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb786…b18dbacked No | 76c | 3,000$2,280 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$720 | 175 | 43.4%76 W · 99 L | -6.1wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x37e4…c991backed Yes | 23c | 2,788$649 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$649.18 | 63 | 47.6%30 W · 33 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x067f…e041backed Yes | 20c | 2,500$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 36 | 36.1%13 W · 23 L | +3.4wins | +0.09per pick | 27cpaid | +27.1%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9cb4…8285backed Yes | 23c | 2,500$579 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$579 | 430 | 58.6%252 W · 178 L | +15.8wins | +0.04per pick | 55cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6b7c…5f83backed No | 78c | 2,234$1,737 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$497.27 | 137 | 54%74 W · 63 L | +9.9wins | +0.07per pick | 47cpaid | +8.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked No | 77c | 1,867$1,432 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$434.49 | 1,981 | 39.8%788 W · 1,193 L | -7.5wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -23.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x723c…01ebbacked Yes | 21c | 1,436$296 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$296 | 33 | 18.2%6 W · 27 L | -1.8wins | -0.05per pick | 23cpaid | -29%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf80b…fa00backed No | 80c | 1,122$898 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$224.44 | 16 | 50%8 W · 8 L | -1.3wins | -0.08per pick | 58cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa270…42c9backed Yes | 21c | 999.99$210 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$210 | 15 | 46.7%7 W · 8 L | +2.1wins | +0.14per pick | 33cpaid | +27.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xec92…98f5backed No | 78c | 501.89$391 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$110.41 | 84 | 63.1%53 W · 31 L | +5.8wins | +0.07per pick | 56cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6278…57e6backed Yes | 23c | 435.61$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | +0.3wins | +0.04per pick | 29cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x328e…dc42backed No | 79c | 405.62$320 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85.18 | 19 | 52.6%10 W · 9 L | -0.8wins | -0.04per pick | 57cpaid | -16.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Yes | 22c | 377$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82.94 | 2,538 | 45.9%1,164 W · 1,374 L | +13.8wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4b43…53a3backed Yes | 7c | 365.26$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.66 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.36per pick | 14cpaid | +150%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x29c0…efaabacked Yes | 20c | 255.18$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.04 | 447 | 53.5%239 W · 208 L | +17.0wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0709…f2edbacked Yes | 6c | 233.33$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 41 | 34.1%14 W · 27 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb230…4193backed No | 79c | 222.15$175 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.65 | 52 | 40.4%21 W · 31 L | -8.6wins | -0.17per pick | 57cpaid | -32.7%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x2272…2e9cbacked Yes | 21c | 200$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42 | 49 | 30.6%15 W · 34 L | +1.4wins | +0.03per pick | 28cpaid | +13.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x60e6…9e8abacked Yes | 18c | 199.99$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36 | 26 | 42.3%11 W · 15 L | +1.0wins | +0.04per pick | 38cpaid | +49.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd269…8055backed Yes | 21c | 153.24$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.18 | 43 | 23.3%10 W · 33 L | -3.2wins | -0.08per pick | 31cpaid | -27%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdc76…7842backed No | 78c | 150$117 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33 | 5 | 100%5 W · 0 L | +1.3wins | +0.27per pick | 73cpaid | +37.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6613…144abacked Yes | 21c | 142.86$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 20cpaid | -37.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe1dd…a008backed No | 78c | 128.21$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.21 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.26per pick | 76cpaid | -35.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9e49…63f2backed Yes | 22c | 128.21$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.21 | 208 | 27.9%58 W · 150 L | +5.7wins | +0.03per pick | 25cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa2c8…9be5backed No | 80c | 125$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.20per pick | 80cpaid | +25%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd82a…5fcfbacked Yes | 21c | 100$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.5 | 89 | 58.4%52 W · 37 L | +3.9wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +9.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x50e6…e838backed Yes | 22c | 100$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.12per pick | 37cpaid | -67.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x49de…873cbacked No | 80c | 100$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.20per pick | 80cpaid | +25%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe233…14a3backed Yes | 20c | 100$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 65 | 53.8%35 W · 30 L | -1.8wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4887…1eb4backed Yes | 21c | 95.24$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.11per pick | 36cpaid | -52.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9cb3…f37fbacked No | 79c | 89.87$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.87 | 61 | 62.3%38 W · 23 L | +2.9wins | +0.05per pick | 58cpaid | +12.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4e0a…e4e6backed No | 80c | 81.7$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.37 | 284 | 58.1%165 W · 119 L | +12.6wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x50d6…04babacked No | 80c | 62.5$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.5 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 68cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdf2e…ddecbacked Yes | 20c | 58.33$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.67 | 85 | 58.8%50 W · 35 L | +3.1wins | +0.04per pick | 55cpaid | +18.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x742f…d673backed Yes | 22c | 50$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 147 | 40.8%60 W · 87 L | -14.0wins | -0.10per pick | 50cpaid | -27.9%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x9de9…7abebacked No | 80c | 50$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.20per pick | 80cpaid | +25%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc7f7…2abfbacked Yes | 20c | 50$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 129 | 23.3%30 W · 99 L | -1.5wins | -0.01per pick | 24cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x74b2…05e0backed Yes | 21c | 50$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.5 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.2wins | -0.39per pick | 39cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1bbc…f458backed No | 79c | 48.42$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.17 | 38 | 36.8%14 W · 24 L | -5.9wins | -0.16per pick | 52cpaid | -36.9%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xf102…1348backed Yes | 21c | 48$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.08 | 272 | 26.8%73 W · 199 L | -4.4wins | -0.02per pick | 28cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7308…2b0abacked No | 80c | 25$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5 | 15 | 73.3%11 W · 4 L | -0.4wins | -0.03per pick | 76cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0a77…e065backed No | 79c | 21.52$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.52 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.14per pick | 64cpaid | -36.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9d5f…84bfbacked No | 80c | 20$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4 | 9 | 77.8%7 W · 2 L | +0.8wins | +0.08per pick | 69cpaid | +12.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc599…2cecbacked No | 80c | 14.84$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.01 | 131 | 52.7%69 W · 62 L | -2.1wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb0ff…ca90backed No | 79c | 14.29$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 69cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Serie A and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Bologna win on 2025-09-14?this page
- Will AC Milan vs. Bologna end in a draw?No won
- Will AC Milan win on 2025-09-14?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.