South American Leagues · resolved market
CA Lanús vs. CA Independiente: O/U 1.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x5f0f5fd40cfa2206dd9c9961481274ed5b8aa9609ffb32de5062db2fbdd62fc0
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- South American Leaguesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $16,257
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $16,562
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $16,257 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 32 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in South American Leagues is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in South American Leagues | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xa704…11c1backed Over | 55c | 4,739$2,623 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,115.59 | 14 | 71.4%10 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 72cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x633e…d305backed Over | 61c | 1,550$952 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$597.42 | 78 | 43.6%34 W · 44 L | +5.5wins | +0.07per pick | 37cpaid | +12.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0346…52a5backed Under | 38c | 1,380$523 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$523.45 | 2,287 | 34.3%784 W · 1,503 L | -30.0wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -15.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 37c | 1,365$508 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$507.88 | 8,112 | 48.7%3,951 W · 4,161 L | +27.1wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7d06…755bbacked Under | 47c | 815.47$380 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$380 | 50 | 42%21 W · 29 L | -3.5wins | -0.07per pick | 49cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc291…5d74backed Under | 38c | 813.39$312 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$312.1 | 3,755 | 38.2%1,435 W · 2,320 L | -32.5wins | -0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Under | 44c | 553.63$246 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$245.84 | 5,762 | 45.4%2,614 W · 3,148 L | +94.9wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7d0c…a3b7backed Under | 38c | 331.67$126 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$126.04 | 2,335 | 51.5%1,202 W · 1,133 L | +2.6wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x52d9…fb1abacked Under | 45c | 309.68$139 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$139.36 | 1,447 | 45.9%664 W · 783 L | -22.0wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4f29…7a7ebacked Over | 53c | 257.69$137 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$120.28 | 752 | 40.8%307 W · 445 L | -17.0wins | -0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7a3d…4d49backed Under | 46c | 242$111 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$111.32 | 36 | 47.2%17 W · 19 L | -2.2wins | -0.06per pick | 53cpaid | -23.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked Under | 5c | 200$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 184 | 26.1%48 W · 136 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 26cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2a69…d2f7backed Under | 46c | 189.03$86 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$86.13 | 2,519 | 39%982 W · 1,537 L | -32.2wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -14%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc2b0…e756backed Over | 49c | 180$89 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$91.2 | 73 | 34.2%25 W · 48 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x99f0…9495backed Under | 38c | 164$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.32 | 312 | 40.1%125 W · 187 L | -1.8wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8d0c…c90abacked Under | 39c | 149.99$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58 | 107 | 51.4%55 W · 52 L | -1.8wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa6db…3155backed Under | 38c | 100$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38 | 234 | 53%124 W · 110 L | +1.9wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +17.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe707…e0cfbacked Over | 61c | 100$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | +11.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfb0c…8c72backed Under | 39c | 77.26$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.13 | 559 | 46%257 W · 302 L | -19.0wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd924…7bc2backed Under | 40c | 72.5$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29 | 100 | 44%44 W · 56 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x79fd…78cebacked Under | 49c | 70$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.3 | 178 | 52.8%94 W · 84 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3c52…99e1backed Over | 76c | 52.63$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.63 | 68 | 77.9%53 W · 15 L | +2.0wins | +0.03per pick | 75cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd220…e303backed Over | 59c | 52.54$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.54 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +1.8wins | +0.20per pick | 35cpaid | +75.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4862…7762backed Over | 55c | 50$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.5 | 6 | 83.3%5 W · 1 L | +2.8wins | +0.47per pick | 36cpaid | +145.2%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x5d63…9075backed Under | 37c | 49.22$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.32 | 951 | 55.8%531 W · 420 L | +31.5wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0ac5…f963backed Under | 38c | 48.27$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.34 | 163 | 49.7%81 W · 82 L | +5.9wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +11.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9028…8608backed Under | 36c | 47.28$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.22 | 601 | 56.2%338 W · 263 L | +10.4wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0d3b…eedbbacked Under | 46c | 43.48$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.9wins | -0.18per pick | 58cpaid | -31.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfff3…e2c5backed Under | 52c | 43.47$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.6 | 72 | 48.6%35 W · 37 L | -2.4wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x37b0…799fbacked Under | 41c | 36.59$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 150 | 57.3%86 W · 64 L | -2.0wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1573…a727backed Under | 41c | 36$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.76 | 21 | 42.9%9 W · 12 L | -0.8wins | -0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xadfb…c2efbacked Over | 59c | 30$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.3 | 1,670 | 51.8%865 W · 805 L | +19.4wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in South American Leagues and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 13 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- CA Lanús vs. CA Independiente: O/U 1.5this page
- CA Lanús vs. CA Independiente: Both Teams to ScoreYes won
- CA Lanús vs. CA Independiente: CA Independiente 1st Half O/U 1.5Under won
- CA Lanús vs. CA Independiente: CA Independiente O/U 2.5Over won
- CA Lanús vs. CA Independiente: CA Lanús O/U 1.5Under won
- CA Lanús vs. CA Independiente: O/U 0.5Over won
- CA Lanús vs. CA Independiente: O/U 2.5Over won
- CA Lanús vs. CA Independiente: O/U 3.5Over won
- CA Lanús vs. CA Independiente: O/U 4.5Under won
- CA Lanús vs. CA Independiente: O/U 5.5Under won
- Spread: CA Independiente (-1.5)CA Independiente won
- Spread: CA Lanús (-1.5)CA Independiente won
- Spread: CA Lanús (-2.5)CA Independiente won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.