South American Leagues · resolved market
CA Lanús vs. CA Independiente: O/U 2.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x7c1d59e10c1febd3d5f102329579f395fb15f35b7c421f0b3d66685e3f1f6e9c
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- South American Leaguesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $52,022
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $57,870
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $52,022 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 50 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in South American Leagues is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in South American Leagues | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x0346…52a5backed Under | 60c | 6,095$3,653 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,652.76 | 2,281 | 34.3%782 W · 1,499 L | -30.5wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -16.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe23c…5ae7backed Under | 2c | 5,000$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75 | 52 | 48.1%25 W · 27 L | +6.0wins | +0.11per pick | 37cpaid | +10.6%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xb184…b6c6backed Over | 43c | 4,669$1,990 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,678.55 | 35 | 37.1%13 W · 22 L | +0.7wins | +0.02per pick | 35cpaid | +13.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0dbe…9013backed Over | 34c | 3,460$1,162 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,298.03 | 185 | 43.2%80 W · 105 L | +1.9wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Over | 66c | 3,216$2,122 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,093.99 | 8,107 | 48.7%3,948 W · 4,159 L | +26.8wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe57d…bf4cbacked Under | 1c | 3,200$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32 | 118 | 17.8%21 W · 97 L | -4.2wins | -0.04per pick | 21cpaid | -50.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Under | 66c | 2,900$1,914 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,914 | 1,944 | 51.3%998 W · 946 L | +40.6wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +7.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4488…e319backed Over | 34c | 2,500$850 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,650 | 347 | 47.6%165 W · 182 L | +17.7wins | +0.05per pick | 42cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4f29…7a7ebacked Over | 35c | 1,885$665 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,220.33 | 752 | 40.8%307 W · 445 L | -17.0wins | -0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Over | 34c | 1,861$633 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,227.97 | 1,439 | 37.5%540 W · 899 L | +4.1wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdb5a…8445backed Under | 4c | 1,250$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 77 | 23.4%18 W · 59 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 23cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x60ad…b017backed Over | 42c | 1,165$489 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$675.51 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +1.9wins | +0.21per pick | 34cpaid | +63.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x65b5…aa71backed Under | 67c | 1,001$670 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$670.42 | 213 | 66.7%142 W · 71 L | +8.0wins | +0.04per pick | 63cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Under | 57c | 813.77$466 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$465.8 | 5,757 | 45.4%2,611 W · 3,146 L | +94.0wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0dbe…1999backed Under | 67c | 769.4$515 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$515.5 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.3wins | -0.63per pick | 63cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2a69…d2f7backed Under | 24c | 605.76$145 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$145.38 | 2,514 | 39%980 W · 1,534 L | -32.2wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -14%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa54d…deb8backed Over | 41c | 498.38$206 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$292.66 | 16 | 56.3%9 W · 7 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 57cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffd…7821backed Under | 60c | 430.22$258 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$258.08 | 217 | 52.1%113 W · 104 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe904…44e9backed Under | 66c | 388.34$256 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$256.3 | 182 | 47.8%87 W · 95 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc291…5d74backed Under | 54c | 377.66$205 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$205.39 | 3,749 | 38.2%1,431 W · 2,318 L | -33.3wins | -0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x01c7…e995backed Over | 72c | 362.33$260 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$102.6 | 1,362 | 44.9%611 W · 751 L | -22.0wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -19.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfb0c…8c72backed Under | 66c | 300$198 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$198.22 | 559 | 46%257 W · 302 L | -19.0wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7ea5…de7bbacked Under | 66c | 201.53$133 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$133.01 | 3,405 | 51.3%1,748 W · 1,657 L | +21.3wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdb83…1e50backed Under | 60c | 183.12$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$109.87 | 1,302 | 50.2%653 W · 649 L | -13.6wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2dbe…7833backed Over | 40c | 150$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$90 | 13 | 30.8%4 W · 9 L | -0.3wins | -0.03per pick | 33cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9e3e…f882backed Over | 34c | 120.44$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$79.49 | 668 | 37.1%248 W · 420 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdcbb…07d9backed Under | 79c | 103.71$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82.44 | 142 | 64.1%91 W · 51 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 65cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb4d2…ce99backed Over | 64c | 100.87$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.31 | 575 | 40.2%231 W · 344 L | +2.7wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -2%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7d93…fdefbacked Over | 70c | 89$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.97 | 190 | 53.2%101 W · 89 L | +3.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcf73…0215backed Over | 33c | 79.68$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.39 | 1,282 | 53.7%689 W · 593 L | +5.3wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe84f…b777backed Under | 57c | 76.72$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.88 | 694 | 53.5%371 W · 323 L | +8.0wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x200f…7a96backed Under | 66c | 76$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.5 | 2,611 | 54.2%1,415 W · 1,196 L | +25.5wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x79fd…78cebacked Under | 54c | 71.58$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.65 | 178 | 52.8%94 W · 84 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7d0c…a3b7backed Under | 66c | 70.44$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.49 | 2,335 | 51.5%1,202 W · 1,133 L | +2.6wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5981…3934backed Over | 40c | 60.08$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.05 | 150 | 41.3%62 W · 88 L | +2.2wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | +7.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x52d9…fb1abacked Under | 66c | 55.18$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.42 | 1,443 | 45.9%662 W · 781 L | -22.1wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd924…7bc2backed Under | 26c | 53.85$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 100 | 44%44 W · 56 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xda77…683fbacked Over | 49c | 51.44$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.16 | 898 | 46.1%414 W · 484 L | -11.8wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -18.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8d0c…c90abacked Under | 66c | 35.07$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.15 | 103 | 52.4%54 W · 49 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7113…dba4backed Under | 61c | 29.51$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 98 | 52%51 W · 47 L | +3.5wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc4fe…601fbacked Over | 68c | 27.06$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.66 | 517 | 50.7%262 W · 255 L | +28.3wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5d63…9075backed Over | 40c | 26.63$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.86 | 951 | 55.8%531 W · 420 L | +31.5wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x042d…0b81backed Under | 67c | 26.43$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.71 | 141 | 49.6%70 W · 71 L | -4.3wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8e90…4f65backed Under | 67c | 25.43$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.04 | 167 | 51.5%86 W · 81 L | -3.1wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8935…7daabacked Over | 47c | 24.41$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.83 | 675 | 48%324 W · 351 L | -18.6wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x50e5…e39fbacked Under | 66c | 21$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.86 | 720 | 58.8%423 W · 297 L | +29.5wins | +0.04per pick | 55cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x37b0…799fbacked Under | 73c | 20.55$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 150 | 57.3%86 W · 64 L | -2.0wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbace…34d6backed Under | 68c | 20$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.6 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -3.4wins | -0.38per pick | 71cpaid | -54%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x3b4c…b93bbacked Under | 63c | 19.57$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.28 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | +0.3wins | +0.03per pick | 64cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbd97…ae50backed Under | 67c | 17.48$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.8 | 51 | 64.7%33 W · 18 L | -1.0wins | -0.02per pick | 67cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in South American Leagues and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 13 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- CA Lanús vs. CA Independiente: O/U 2.5this page
- CA Lanús vs. CA Independiente: Both Teams to ScoreYes won
- CA Lanús vs. CA Independiente: CA Independiente 1st Half O/U 1.5Under won
- CA Lanús vs. CA Independiente: CA Independiente O/U 2.5Over won
- CA Lanús vs. CA Independiente: CA Lanús O/U 1.5Under won
- CA Lanús vs. CA Independiente: O/U 0.5Over won
- CA Lanús vs. CA Independiente: O/U 1.5Over won
- CA Lanús vs. CA Independiente: O/U 3.5Over won
- CA Lanús vs. CA Independiente: O/U 4.5Under won
- CA Lanús vs. CA Independiente: O/U 5.5Under won
- Spread: CA Independiente (-1.5)CA Independiente won
- Spread: CA Lanús (-1.5)CA Independiente won
- Spread: CA Lanús (-2.5)CA Independiente won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.