La Liga · resolved market
Will Real Sociedad vs. Real Madrid end in a draw?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x5f3f83599affab06a075997567b9bee6e9a589329565133e5da23fb4babe5e88
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- La Ligaevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $27,848
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $27,518
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $27,848 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a prediction-market account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 36 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in La Liga is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in La Liga | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x328e…dc42backed Yes | 16c | 7,131$1,155 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,154.56 | 22 | 40.9%9 W · 13 L | -1.5wins | -0.07per pick | 48cpaid | -31.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Yes | 23c | 5,051$1,144 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,143.81 | 4,856 | 47%2,282 W · 2,574 L | -17.4wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf519…906bbacked No | 78c | 4,112$3,206 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$905.66 | 245 | 47.3%116 W · 129 L | -5.1wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7865…4af9backed No | 78c | 956.41$746 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$210.41 | 81 | 22.2%18 W · 63 L | -8.9wins | -0.11per pick | 33cpaid | -42.3%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xf80b…fa00backed Yes | 22c | 886.93$195 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$195.12 | 34 | 58.8%20 W · 14 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xea64…f2a2backed No | 78c | 800.6$624 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$176.9 | 77 | 62.3%48 W · 29 L | +5.5wins | +0.07per pick | 55cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb3b8…d1c4backed Yes | 22c | 740.82$163 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$162.98 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.22per pick | 22cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x040d…1a5ebacked Yes | 18c | 611.29$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110.03 | 19 | 26.3%5 W · 14 L | -3.1wins | -0.16per pick | 43cpaid | -51.7%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xf142…57e7backed Yes | 20c | 521.77$104 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$104.35 | 284 | 47.2%134 W · 150 L | -2.4wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe471…c87cbacked Yes | 17c | 520$87 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87.4 | 90 | 25.6%23 W · 67 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -29.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0709…f2edbacked Yes | 15c | 512.46$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79 | 16 | 31.3%5 W · 11 L | -1.0wins | -0.06per pick | 38cpaid | -22.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdf2e…ddecbacked No | 76c | 421.29$320 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$101.11 | 125 | 51.2%64 W · 61 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb405…8771backed Yes | 24c | 416.67$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | -1.0wins | -0.09per pick | 42cpaid | -22.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Yes | 12c | 380.65$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.78 | 3,571 | 42.6%1,522 W · 2,049 L | +26.6wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -11.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x17cb…3ab8backed Yes | 29c | 346.55$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 23 | 34.8%8 W · 15 L | -2.5wins | -0.11per pick | 46cpaid | -25%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe216…7448backed Yes | 24c | 208.33$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 13 | 30.8%4 W · 9 L | -0.4wins | -0.03per pick | 34cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x843b…2673backed Yes | 10c | 205$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe671…a682backed Yes | 23c | 150$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.5 | 81 | 42%34 W · 47 L | +2.3wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb033…bedbbacked No | 77c | 150$116 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.5 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.07per pick | 74cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7d24…a93fbacked No | 75c | 134$101 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.5 | 141 | 66.7%94 W · 47 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 66cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x146a…36fabacked Yes | 12c | 125$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | -1.1wins | -0.13per pick | 57cpaid | -30.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x280f…60a9backed Yes | 15c | 112$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.8 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | +0.7wins | +0.07per pick | 30cpaid | +7.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8c93…8967backed Yes | 22c | 100$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 17 | 47.1%8 W · 9 L | -1.9wins | -0.11per pick | 58cpaid | -22.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5949…89dabacked No | 78c | 100$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.0wins | -0.24per pick | 49cpaid | -67.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfa66…1c5bbacked No | 78c | 100$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.9wins | -0.31per pick | 65cpaid | -57.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x47af…799bbacked Yes | 22c | 100$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.10per pick | 50cpaid | -44.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbab8…6485backed Yes | 22c | 100$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.5wins | +0.12per pick | 38cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9375…1dbdbacked Yes | 18c | 100$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5dc8…6600backed Yes | 23c | 95.65$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.13per pick | 46cpaid | -51.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe209…685bbacked Yes | 26c | 76.92$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.14per pick | 39cpaid | -66.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf102…1348backed Yes | 21c | 48$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.08 | 490 | 34.3%168 W · 322 L | +26.0wins | +0.05per pick | 29cpaid | +15.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x362c…ac6ebacked Yes | 25c | 40$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.4wins | -0.46per pick | 46cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4aa4…17c0backed No | 77c | 29.43$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.77 | 28 | 71.4%20 W · 8 L | +2.5wins | +0.09per pick | 63cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4e0a…e4e6backed No | 78c | 25$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.5 | 432 | 55.6%240 W · 192 L | +1.8wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdc76…7842backed No | 76c | 20.83$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.23per pick | 77cpaid | +29.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x344d…1278backed No | 78c | 20$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.4 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -47.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in La Liga and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Real Sociedad vs. Real Madrid end in a draw?this page
- Will Real Madrid win on 2025-09-13?Yes won
- Will Real Sociedad win on 2025-09-13?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.