La Liga · resolved market
Will Real Sociedad win on 2025-09-13?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x54ee489e11cd01d0dab8546e20c361e16515b42ba9af7adc3a6d2ea3255fe260
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- La Ligaevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $106,019
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $125,471
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $106,019 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 35 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in La Liga is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in La Liga | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Yes | 15c | 14,277$2,127 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,127.18 | 4,740 | 47%2,230 W · 2,510 L | -23.9wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x328e…dc42backed Yes | 8c | 13,880$1,096 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,095.63 | 22 | 40.9%9 W · 13 L | -1.5wins | -0.07per pick | 48cpaid | -31.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2d0f…4faabacked Yes | 16c | 13,333$2,133 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,133.28 | 27 | 29.6%8 W · 19 L | -1.3wins | -0.05per pick | 35cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf68a…5b1bbacked Yes | 16c | 10,000$1,600 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,600 | 241 | 45.2%109 W · 132 L | -5.5wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2765…7ee4backed Yes | 3c | 4,038$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.94 | 65 | 44.6%29 W · 36 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdf2e…ddecbacked Yes | 16c | 2,697$432 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$431.51 | 125 | 51.2%64 W · 61 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9aaf…114dbacked Yes | 1c | 1,520$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.2 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.36per pick | 15cpaid | +78.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3d98…3453backed Yes | 2c | 1,067$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.23per pick | 27cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x06b2…9f35backed Yes | 17c | 1,047$178 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$177.99 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +1.0wins | +0.12per pick | 50cpaid | +34%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x03a6…1198backed Yes | 3c | 1,000$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26 | 20 | 30%6 W · 14 L | -5.2wins | -0.26per pick | 56cpaid | -56.8%equal weight | 37-0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x09f3…10b7backed Yes | 17c | 677.29$115 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$115.14 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.2wins | +0.05per pick | 20cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe471…c87cbacked Yes | 13c | 633.99$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84.8 | 85 | 25.9%22 W · 63 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -28%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0364…f19bbacked Yes | 15c | 499.99$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | -0.8wins | -0.08per pick | 48cpaid | -17.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xba8d…009dbacked Yes | 12c | 490.81$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.85 | 109 | 27.5%30 W · 79 L | -3.9wins | -0.04per pick | 31cpaid | -28%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf80b…fa00backed Yes | 15c | 472.24$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.84 | 34 | 58.8%20 W · 14 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb786…b18dbacked Yes | 16c | 452.95$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.47 | 34 | 44.1%15 W · 19 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -29.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0709…f2edbacked Yes | 5c | 444.32$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23 | 16 | 31.3%5 W · 11 L | -1.0wins | -0.06per pick | 38cpaid | -22.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1677…1126backed Yes | 15c | 406.87$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.03 | 158 | 51.3%81 W · 77 L | +6.6wins | +0.04per pick | 47cpaid | +8.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9e49…63f2backed Yes | 18c | 400$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71 | 146 | 21.9%32 W · 114 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 22cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6d01…0ab1backed Yes | 15c | 300$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 119 | 47.1%56 W · 63 L | +8.0wins | +0.07per pick | 40cpaid | +9.5%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa8f3…e544backed Yes | 17c | 294.98$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.15 | 89 | 39.3%35 W · 54 L | -1.1wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3dd4…1b50backed Yes | 16c | 277.99$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.48 | 145 | 40.7%59 W · 86 L | -5.2wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -15.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdfc1…818dbacked Yes | 18c | 267$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.18 | 60 | 35%21 W · 39 L | -4.0wins | -0.07per pick | 42cpaid | -26.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfd3a…aef4backed Yes | 9c | 250$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.25 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xea64…f2a2backed Yes | 16c | 234.21$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.47 | 77 | 62.3%48 W · 29 L | +5.5wins | +0.07per pick | 55cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5e10…70f4backed Yes | 14c | 200$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28 | 148 | 54.1%80 W · 68 L | +5.9wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +8.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe671…a682backed Yes | 5c | 200$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 81 | 42%34 W · 47 L | +2.3wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2798…3d88backed Yes | 9c | 171.43$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.3wins | -0.05per pick | 22cpaid | -69.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4a26…39e5backed Yes | 17c | 147.06$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 8 | 87.5%7 W · 1 L | +1.8wins | +0.23per pick | 65cpaid | +23.2%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0a7e…fce4backed Yes | 15c | 145$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.75 | 56 | 16.1%9 W · 47 L | -5.5wins | -0.10per pick | 26cpaid | -60%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xc19e…7e4abacked Yes | 19c | 100$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2f9e…7293backed Yes | 19c | 90.16$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.13 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | -0.7wins | -0.05per pick | 44cpaid | +14.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xea9e…d3fbbacked Yes | 16c | 84.19$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.47 | 127 | 22.8%29 W · 98 L | +2.4wins | +0.02per pick | 21cpaid | -4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd82a…5fcfbacked Yes | 16c | 70.96$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.7 | 102 | 48%49 W · 53 L | -4.7wins | -0.05per pick | 53cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1bbc…f458backed Yes | 18c | 61$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.98 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.0wins | -0.26per pick | 51cpaid | -67.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in La Liga and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Real Sociedad win on 2025-09-13?this page
- Will Real Madrid win on 2025-09-13?Yes won
- Will Real Sociedad vs. Real Madrid end in a draw?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.