Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 80-81°F on April 21?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x5f446ef19167168aeaac99457283b30f1cc6e10b28f93a597bf2cbac09acf4a3
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $11,618
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $10,837
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $11,618 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 71 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xf8dc…f31fbacked Yes | 40c | 742.93$301 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300.68 | 4,525 | 26.7%1,206 W · 3,319 L | +62.2wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb8fc…88e1backed Yes | 30c | 563.86$172 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$171.54 | 1,298 | 33.1%430 W · 868 L | +39.5wins | +0.03per pick | 30cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf7a4…f148backed Yes | 33c | 516.2$173 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$172.61 | 1,429 | 34.5%493 W · 936 L | -6.8wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 61c | 337.2$205 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$131.92 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc423…2ccdbacked Yes | 29c | 323.03$93 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$93.07 | 524 | 44.1%231 W · 293 L | -9.0wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 26c | 218$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.58 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8aa2…5a0bbacked Yes | 36c | 175.28$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.34 | 1,420 | 58.7%833 W · 587 L | +69.1wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 27c | 171.78$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.01 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x28f7…9a6abacked No | 65c | 143.52$93 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.68 | 108 | 43.5%47 W · 61 L | +5.2wins | +0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xaa7a…4d23backed Yes | 15c | 135$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.95 | 987 | 38.1%376 W · 611 L | +80.8wins | +0.08per pick | 30cpaid | +32.1%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x24fe…3419backed Yes | 16c | 134.59$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.14 | 212 | 35.8%76 W · 136 L | +10.4wins | +0.05per pick | 31cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed Yes | 23c | 128.51$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.82 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8f34…2f50backed No | 70c | 125.47$87 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.98 | 4,120 | 60.8%2,506 W · 1,614 L | +32.7wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf1f8…f4cbbacked Yes | 15c | 124.58$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.05 | 812 | 34.1%277 W · 535 L | +56.9wins | +0.07per pick | 27cpaid | +16.1%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xaa28…090bbacked Yes | 16c | 118.88$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.59 | 2,239 | 15%335 W · 1,904 L | +54.6wins | +0.02per pick | 13cpaid | +24%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 29c | 114.66$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.06 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x710d…02aabacked Yes | 35c | 112.65$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.48 | 340 | 67.4%229 W · 111 L | +24.4wins | +0.07per pick | 60cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x4d21…b569backed No | 70c | 109.95$77 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.5 | 141 | 58.2%82 W · 59 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1361…f12bbacked Yes | 32c | 105.41$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.73 | 1,924 | 33.8%651 W · 1,273 L | +29.2wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | +1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x906f…371abacked No | 73c | 98.15$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.74 | 2,495 | 69.9%1,744 W · 751 L | +80.3wins | +0.03per pick | 67cpaid | +5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x951c…d8c7backed Yes | 24c | 96.24$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.21 | 683 | 35.4%242 W · 441 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 36cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8e22…3061backed Yes | 34c | 86.14$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.11 | 385 | 15.6%60 W · 325 L | +15.3wins | +0.04per pick | 12cpaid | +93.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x399f…e8d8backed No | 74c | 85.73$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.48 | 101 | 54.5%55 W · 46 L | -4.3wins | -0.04per pick | 59cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb8ca…128abacked No | 63c | 81.56$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.87 | 20 | 45%9 W · 11 L | -2.1wins | -0.10per pick | 55cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa98a…a5a8backed No | 79c | 81.17$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.78 | 2,015 | 67.7%1,365 W · 650 L | +1.8wins | 0.00per pick | 68cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfa28…c37ebacked Yes | 32c | 79.34$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.74 | 3,939 | 35.3%1,392 W · 2,547 L | +35.4wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x928a…0e27backed No | 75c | 76.48$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.02 | 90 | 54.4%49 W · 41 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeda0…7dffbacked No | 66c | 65.02$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.82 | 695 | 20%139 W · 556 L | -44.4wins | -0.06per pick | 26cpaid | -53.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4179…cceebacked No | 70c | 64.64$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.61 | 429 | 76.5%328 W · 101 L | +4.5wins | +0.01per pick | 75cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6ca6…4b74backed Yes | 27c | 63.84$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.48 | 118 | 33.1%39 W · 79 L | -7.7wins | -0.07per pick | 40cpaid | -26%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8fb4…b9edbacked Yes | 17c | 59.72$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.06 | 421 | 30.4%128 W · 293 L | +19.5wins | +0.05per pick | 26cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xee33…1822backed No | 74c | 48.72$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.68 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | -0.7wins | -0.09per pick | 59cpaid | -33.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb06a…52f5backed Yes | 23c | 45.52$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.58 | 5,832 | 36.7%2,138 W · 3,694 L | +211.1wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc24f…81d3backed No | 72c | 41.91$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.6 | 985 | 71%699 W · 286 L | +5.7wins | +0.01per pick | 70cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x39f2…b712backed No | 70c | 40.74$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.22 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | -1.2wins | -0.15per pick | 65cpaid | -20.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0b87…9414backed Yes | 25c | 40.32$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.08 | 2,001 | 38.4%768 W · 1,233 L | +1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9410…9160backed No | 72c | 38.52$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.68 | 420 | 49%206 W · 214 L | -15.9wins | -0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x866d…f673backed Yes | 38c | 38.44$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.61 | 90 | 54.4%49 W · 41 L | +2.8wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6c38…d6a6backed Yes | 35c | 37.75$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.09 | 64 | 21.9%14 W · 50 L | -5.0wins | -0.08per pick | 30cpaid | -36.1%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2e99…b482backed Yes | 29c | 37.15$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.72 | 425 | 44%187 W · 238 L | +15.1wins | +0.04per pick | 40cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb4f6…eadabacked No | 74c | 35.13$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.24 | 165 | 75.8%125 W · 40 L | +5.4wins | +0.03per pick | 72cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0f18…5b28backed No | 74c | 35.11$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.22 | 265 | 66.4%176 W · 89 L | +13.0wins | +0.05per pick | 62cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbaf1…ffd5backed Yes | 33c | 34.02$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.19 | 114 | 36%41 W · 73 L | +5.0wins | +0.04per pick | 32cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd51e…6465backed No | 62c | 33.97$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.91 | 375 | 33.6%126 W · 249 L | -11.9wins | -0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -24.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x53bc…be7cbacked No | 75c | 33.33$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.33 | 627 | 70.5%442 W · 185 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 71cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe752…2200backed Yes | 32c | 32.96$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.55 | 1,204 | 25.3%305 W · 899 L | +18.2wins | +0.02per pick | 24cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeee0…f00ebacked Yes | 47c | 32.52$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.25 | 171 | 40.4%69 W · 102 L | +4.9wins | +0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x51b3…16a2backed Yes | 32c | 31.25$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 36 | 30.6%11 W · 25 L | +1.9wins | +0.05per pick | 25cpaid | +18.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x52e5…c4bbbacked Yes | 39c | 31.04$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.16 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.08per pick | 33cpaid | -28%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd4a9…75f9backed No | 74c | 30.17$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.85 | 262 | 53.4%140 W · 122 L | -2.9wins | -0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb897…7007backed Yes | 39c | 29.73$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.6 | 110 | 38.2%42 W · 68 L | +3.2wins | +0.03per pick | 35cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdd7a…7bfbbacked No | 61c | 28$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.92 | 4,961 | 68.3%3,386 W · 1,575 L | +65.6wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc52a…e37abacked No | 77c | 27.34$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.42 | 182 | 72%131 W · 51 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 73cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xea0d…c1b6backed No | 72c | 27.12$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.52 | 216 | 76.4%165 W · 51 L | +12.5wins | +0.06per pick | 71cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x56b5…757fbacked No | 78c | 26.35$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.89 | 13 | 84.6%11 W · 2 L | +1.2wins | +0.09per pick | 76cpaid | +14.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xae47…638dbacked No | 74c | 24.51$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.35 | 525 | 71.2%374 W · 151 L | +4.7wins | +0.01per pick | 70cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2097…8063backed No | 71c | 23.22$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.73 | 96 | 68.8%66 W · 30 L | -1.2wins | -0.01per pick | 70cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x35e6…7a4dbacked No | 73c | 23.15$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.2 | 1,699 | 60.6%1,029 W · 670 L | -24.7wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc6a9…2227backed No | 77c | 20.3$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.67 | 71 | 73.2%52 W · 19 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 74cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6fcc…788cbacked No | 76c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.8 | 31 | 71%22 W · 9 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 69cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3c69…4622backed No | 63c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.4 | 562 | 65.5%368 W · 194 L | +35.2wins | +0.06per pick | 59cpaid | +18.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9c31…68a1backed No | 73c | 19.47$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.16 | 195 | 47.2%92 W · 103 L | -9.0wins | -0.05per pick | 52cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd088…a3eabacked No | 54c | 19.09$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.73 | 79 | 72.2%57 W · 22 L | +4.3wins | +0.05per pick | 67cpaid | +8.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa081…e7a0backed No | 78c | 18.91$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.22 | 389 | 61.7%240 W · 149 L | +0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 61cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x82ca…3135backed No | 68c | 18.32$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.87 | 1,026 | 64%657 W · 369 L | +49.8wins | +0.05per pick | 59cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4248…60abbacked No | 70c | 18$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.4 | 2,219 | 58.7%1,303 W · 916 L | -11.5wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb423…c178backed No | 67c | 16.79$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.54 | 268 | 61.6%165 W · 103 L | -6.4wins | -0.02per pick | 64cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x625f…5c20backed No | 75c | 16.29$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.11 | 96 | 66.7%64 W · 32 L | -5.7wins | -0.06per pick | 73cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd228…ea6fbacked No | 76c | 14.88$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.52 | 229 | 34.1%78 W · 151 L | -8.4wins | -0.04per pick | 38cpaid | -13.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc52f…0981backed No | 73c | 14.87$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.02 | 146 | 71.2%104 W · 42 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 71cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2298…9f33backed No | 72c | 14.58$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.13 | 351 | 68.4%240 W · 111 L | -4.9wins | -0.01per pick | 70cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 80-81°F on April 21?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 72-73°F on April 21?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 74-75°F on April 21?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 76-77°F on April 21?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 78-79°F on April 21?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 82-83°F on April 21?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.