Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 16°C on June 13?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x5f4f7a0fe8d50552f3204055f9566a988739098f2ea4858385860f6a530b81fa
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $6,240
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $6,442
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $6,240 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 37 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xfea5…ee06backed Yes | 7c | 521.1$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.27 | 270 | 29.3%79 W · 191 L | -3.3wins | -0.01per pick | 30cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcd91…32b8backed No | 79c | 255.73$201 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.76 | 1,428 | 52.1%744 W · 684 L | -21.9wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 70c | 242.06$170 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72.16 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xed30…87b1backed Yes | 46c | 167.82$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76.61 | 185 | 49.7%92 W · 93 L | +5.0wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x71d9…19f8backed Yes | 38c | 158.62$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.64 | 37 | 48.6%18 W · 19 L | +1.9wins | +0.05per pick | 43cpaid | +12.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Yes | 29c | 129.33$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.63 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xdfab…602dbacked Yes | 35c | 120.47$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.76 | 43 | 37.2%16 W · 27 L | -1.5wins | -0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x19f4…c772backed Yes | 41c | 108$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.65 | 1,054 | 34.9%368 W · 686 L | +11.1wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb5f8…8e32backed No | 62c | 107.05$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.19 | 179 | 56.4%101 W · 78 L | +13.1wins | +0.07per pick | 49cpaid | +8.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0996…598dbacked No | 57c | 79.82$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.49 | 487 | 43.7%213 W · 274 L | -9.5wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3653…ef74backed Yes | 23c | 77.18$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.74 | 2,124 | 57.4%1,220 W · 904 L | +69.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed Yes | 46c | 70.02$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.22 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6b50…c9babacked Yes | 22c | 68.36$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.09 | 451 | 48.6%219 W · 232 L | +21.0wins | +0.05per pick | 44cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 38c | 66.01$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.22 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x54a0…4134backed Yes | 59c | 65.34$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.55 | 148 | 23%34 W · 114 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 23cpaid | -26%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x24e8…4546backed No | 64c | 56$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.99 | 3,065 | 53.7%1,647 W · 1,418 L | -97.2wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 59c | 55.62$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.71 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4174…18fabacked No | 71c | 54.35$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.59 | 1,079 | 61.2%660 W · 419 L | -5.7wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc6d8…b90dbacked No | 54c | 51.75$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.94 | 834 | 59.8%499 W · 335 L | +27.5wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc950…9420backed Yes | 46c | 49.75$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.1 | 130 | 35.4%46 W · 84 L | +6.9wins | +0.05per pick | 30cpaid | +17.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7dcf…a7bdbacked No | 77c | 45$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.28 | 1,586 | 61.9%982 W · 604 L | +20.2wins | +0.01per pick | 61cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 25c | 41.97$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.44 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x3f30…f8debacked Yes | 35c | 40.1$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.02 | 3,830 | 47.1%1,805 W · 2,025 L | +63.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc120…a7e3backed No | 69c | 38.04$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.65 | 1,299 | 54.1%703 W · 596 L | +24.7wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4f1d…8de2backed No | 56c | 35.15$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.54 | 1,543 | 60.5%934 W · 609 L | -19.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x942e…be27backed No | 58c | 30$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.63 | 2,010 | 61.5%1,237 W · 773 L | -1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf3d8…8f53backed No | 75c | 26.63$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.64 | 51 | 72.5%37 W · 14 L | +2.3wins | +0.04per pick | 68cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x28f5…dbe4backed No | 67c | 25.49$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.29 | 20 | 45%9 W · 11 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x170b…4737backed No | 69c | 25.13$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.69 | 809 | 57.6%466 W · 343 L | -19.4wins | -0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8b8b…2512backed Yes | 42c | 24.77$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.32 | 2,093 | 57.1%1,196 W · 897 L | +71.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2754…1668backed No | 66c | 24.13$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.24 | 1,018 | 60.2%613 W · 405 L | +13.5wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb537…14ccbacked No | 64c | 23.93$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.73 | 414 | 60.1%249 W · 165 L | -21.5wins | -0.05per pick | 65cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2b59…9db6backed No | 69c | 20.9$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.38 | 1,901 | 55.6%1,057 W · 844 L | +7.7wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x70c4…1008backed No | 74c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.27 | 333 | 50.2%167 W · 166 L | -11.1wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb0d6…7475backed No | 55c | 19.99$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.05 | 1,525 | 52.6%802 W · 723 L | +2.3wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1bf7…ea54backed No | 66c | 19.3$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.56 | 284 | 41.2%117 W · 167 L | -2.9wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6424…2718backed No | 67c | 15.46$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.07 | 427 | 54.6%233 W · 194 L | -3.3wins | -0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 16°C on June 13?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 15°C on June 13?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 17°C on June 13?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 18°C on June 13?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 19°C on June 13?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 20°C on June 13?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.