NHL · resolved market
AHL: Belleville Senators vs. Toronto Marlies
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x5f67457884268ba55cb8e32569c53c2b7d8a9d25ffbbe92e702e946282c72720
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Toronto Marliesof Belleville Senators, Toronto Marlies
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NHLevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $1,358
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $1,346
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $1,358 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 23 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NHL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NHL | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xf4dc…d394backed Toronto Marlies | 57c | 124$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.32 | 52 | 55.8%29 W · 23 L | +2.2wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +14.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x00fe…eff7backed Toronto Marlies | 57c | 114$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.02 | 55 | 49.1%27 W · 28 L | -0.9wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x470e…07c0backed Toronto Marlies | 57c | 101$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.43 | 51 | 49%25 W · 26 L | -1.6wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc938…af43backed Toronto Marlies | 57c | 93$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.99 | 44 | 50%22 W · 22 L | -2.0wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -12%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3f91…20ccbacked Toronto Marlies | 57c | 90$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.7 | 54 | 74.1%40 W · 14 L | +11.1wins | +0.21per pick | 53cpaid | +49%equal weight | 66+0.14 edge/pick |
| 0x0362…449ebacked Toronto Marlies | 56c | 84.05$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.98 | 454 | 47.8%217 W · 237 L | -17.4wins | -0.04per pick | 52cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf41a…ea2bbacked Belleville Senators | 42c | 37.59$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.79 | 919 | 45.6%419 W · 500 L | -27.3wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8655…0853backed Belleville Senators | 43c | 32$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.76 | 18 | 44.4%8 W · 10 L | -0.7wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -16.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7c4e…9b6fbacked Belleville Senators | 43c | 30$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.9 | 23 | 52.2%12 W · 11 L | +0.7wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xac0c…2551backed Belleville Senators | 43c | 30$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.9 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -1.6wins | -0.20per pick | 57cpaid | -28.2%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3a8f…b038backed Toronto Marlies | 57c | 30$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.9 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.14per pick | 54cpaid | -26.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5931…08cbbacked Belleville Senators | 43c | 29$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.47 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | -0.9wins | -0.09per pick | 49cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x72df…42f6backed Belleville Senators | 43c | 28$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.04 | 22 | 36.4%8 W · 14 L | -2.9wins | -0.13per pick | 50cpaid | -36.1%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xbe91…4462backed Belleville Senators | 43c | 28$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.04 | 16 | 50%8 W · 8 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa305…73c9backed Belleville Senators | 43c | 28$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.04 | 18 | 66.7%12 W · 6 L | +3.6wins | +0.20per pick | 47cpaid | +51.1%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x6162…e856backed Belleville Senators | 43c | 27$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.61 | 17 | 35.3%6 W · 11 L | -2.5wins | -0.15per pick | 50cpaid | -30.9%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7500…ae85backed Belleville Senators | 43c | 26$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.18 | 24 | 45.8%11 W · 13 L | -2.4wins | -0.10per pick | 56cpaid | -21.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1ad2…d17fbacked Belleville Senators | 43c | 26$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.18 | 16 | 25%4 W · 12 L | -4.0wins | -0.25per pick | 50cpaid | -55%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x0d6e…148bbacked Belleville Senators | 43c | 25$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.75 | 16 | 37.5%6 W · 10 L | -1.6wins | -0.10per pick | 47cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8e78…fcb4backed Belleville Senators | 43c | 24$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.32 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | +0.9wins | +0.08per pick | 46cpaid | +14.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9cab…9fffbacked Toronto Marlies | 57c | 24$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.32 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.10per pick | 57cpaid | +16%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8c63…83b3backed Toronto Marlies | 57c | 24$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.32 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.16per pick | 51cpaid | +21.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2fb8…2f01backed Toronto Marlies | 57c | 24$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.32 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.46per pick | 54cpaid | +83.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NHL and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.