College Football · resolved market
Spread: Old Dominion (-11.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x5f74c74876bcc429599a8a9ac40fffef0ef13c2c023d4281db65749ebca25db1
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Old Dominionof Old Dominion, Troy
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- College Footballevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $40,752
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $40,752
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $40,752 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 16 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in College Football is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in College Football | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xe84d…9714backed Old Dominion | 44c | 18,939$8,333 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10,605.84 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.04per pick | 47cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9a60…3f7cbacked Troy | 56c | 18,937$10,605 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10,604.72 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9c33…1b14backed Troy | 56c | 18,640$10,438 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10,438.4 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xde98…bedfbacked Old Dominion | 44c | 18,638$8,201 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10,437.28 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.17per pick | 42cpaid | -43.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Old Dominion | 43c | 469.38$202 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$267.58 | 2,013 | 49.6%999 W · 1,014 L | +24.2wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8532…738bbacked Troy | 56c | 436$246 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$245.8 | 99 | 47.5%47 W · 52 L | -4.0wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x84f7…ade1backed Old Dominion | 48c | 258$124 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$134.16 | 216 | 44.9%97 W · 119 L | -4.2wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb7f5…c669backed Troy | 55c | 242.22$133 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$133.22 | 290 | 55.2%160 W · 130 L | +10.1wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1802…d00fbacked Old Dominion | 45c | 242.22$109 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$133.22 | 71 | 45.1%32 W · 39 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -15.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x28a8…57d5backed Troy | 57c | 210.53$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120 | 39 | 48.7%19 W · 20 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5137…1556backed Troy | 53c | 178.89$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95.02 | 1,090 | 41.7%455 W · 635 L | -5.9wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5b20…99e9backed Old Dominion | 45c | 100$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55 | 302 | 53%160 W · 142 L | +10.7wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf1a3…0c69backed Old Dominion | 65c | 60$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.9 | 32 | 28.1%9 W · 23 L | -5.3wins | -0.17per pick | 45cpaid | -50.1%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x45d1…7017backed Old Dominion | 45c | 55$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.25 | 142 | 54.9%78 W · 64 L | +12.3wins | +0.09per pick | 46cpaid | +20.5%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x16b2…a881backed Troy | 51c | 40$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.4 | 935 | 48.4%453 W · 482 L | +11.9wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa047…f4c5backed Troy | 57c | 36.46$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.78 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +9.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in College Football and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Old Dominion (-11.5)this page
- O/U 53.5Under won
- Spread: Old Dominion (-10.5)Old Dominion won
- Troy vs. Old DominionOld Dominion won
- Troy vs. Old Dominion: 1H MoneylineOld Dominion won
- Troy vs. Old Dominion: O/U 52.5Under won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.