College Football · resolved market
Spread: Old Dominion (-10.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xa5631fa175ed7dd7e52b597436dfb3921e5858d98808764a2d77e4a7388281d6
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Old Dominionof Old Dominion, Troy
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- College Footballevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $37,895
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $37,895
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $37,895 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 26 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in College Football is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in College Football | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x4335…fc2fbacked Troy | 53c | 21,289$11,283 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11,283.31 | 120 | 55%66 W · 54 L | +4.2wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5375…aeeabacked Old Dominion | 47c | 10,751$5,093 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,657.99 | 684 | 40.8%279 W · 405 L | -10.7wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -17.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Old Dominion | 47c | 5,686$2,661 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,025 | 2,013 | 49.6%999 W · 1,014 L | +24.2wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1496…a429backed Old Dominion | 47c | 5,250$2,468 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,782.5 | 210 | 55.2%116 W · 94 L | +13.3wins | +0.06per pick | 49cpaid | +12.9%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5139…a8dbbacked Troy | 53c | 2,947$1,562 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,561.91 | 818 | 47.9%392 W · 426 L | +5.5wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf3fb…b8e1backed Troy | 54c | 2,778$1,500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,500 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -1.1wins | -0.11per pick | 41cpaid | -40.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe60a…6a47backed Old Dominion | 48c | 2,478$1,194 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,283.74 | 524 | 49.4%259 W · 265 L | -2.5wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x16b2…a881backed Old Dominion | 46c | 2,055$945 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,109.55 | 935 | 48.4%453 W · 482 L | +11.9wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb8c4…7385backed Troy | 55c | 1,873$1,030 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,030.15 | 190 | 43.2%82 W · 108 L | -4.6wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcea6…67adbacked Old Dominion | 47c | 1,064$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$563.83 | 46 | 47.8%22 W · 24 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf930…e346backed Old Dominion | 47c | 1,064$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$563.83 | 120 | 42.5%51 W · 69 L | -11.0wins | -0.09per pick | 52cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xa1d7…a70cbacked Old Dominion | 48c | 1,042$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$541.67 | 90 | 53.3%48 W · 42 L | +5.3wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +15%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7b3c…ffc7backed Troy | 53c | 999.99$530 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$530 | 104 | 45.2%47 W · 57 L | -5.8wins | -0.06per pick | 51cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8532…738bbacked Troy | 53c | 442$234 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$233.84 | 99 | 47.5%47 W · 52 L | -4.0wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x12fe…38cfbacked Old Dominion | 47c | 399.99$189 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$211 | 422 | 44.5%188 W · 234 L | +12.1wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x98d0…01a4backed Old Dominion | 50c | 260.64$130 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$130.64 | 52 | 55.8%29 W · 23 L | +1.6wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5b20…99e9backed Old Dominion | 47c | 191.49$90 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$101.49 | 302 | 53%160 W · 142 L | +10.7wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc869…8a6ebacked Troy | 55c | 189.29$105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$105 | 179 | 46.9%84 W · 95 L | +4.2wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Old Dominion | 44c | 134.74$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75 | 588 | 50.2%295 W · 293 L | +23.4wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe20a…e469backed Old Dominion | 45c | 102$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.1 | 659 | 45.2%298 W · 361 L | -13.1wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5960…d692backed Troy | 54c | 69$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.26 | 30 | 40%12 W · 18 L | -2.1wins | -0.07per pick | 47cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x45d1…7017backed Old Dominion | 48c | 55$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.6 | 142 | 54.9%78 W · 64 L | +12.3wins | +0.09per pick | 46cpaid | +20.5%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x6bca…b60abacked Old Dominion | 49c | 49.31$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.15 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc47d…feeebacked Troy | 55c | 36.36$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | +3%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x83b9…6124backed Old Dominion | 54c | 35$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.1 | 342 | 50.3%172 W · 170 L | +2.2wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5137…1556backed Old Dominion | 47c | 22.36$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.89 | 1,090 | 41.7%455 W · 635 L | -5.9wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in College Football and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Old Dominion (-10.5)this page
- O/U 53.5Under won
- Spread: Old Dominion (-11.5)Old Dominion won
- Troy vs. Old DominionOld Dominion won
- Troy vs. Old Dominion: 1H MoneylineOld Dominion won
- Troy vs. Old Dominion: O/U 52.5Under won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.