NHL · resolved market
Spread: Penguins (-1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x5f7c02b504d9155002a609dcd013f9ca2fccfdc5026c4e9b7fe281042857e07a
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Wildof Penguins, Wild
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NHLevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $3,806
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $3,829
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $3,806 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 19 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NHL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NHL | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x06ab…d376backed Wild | 68c | 1,536$1,044 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$491.5 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.32per pick | 68cpaid | +47.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5a81…aa82backed Penguins | 32c | 1,486$476 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$475.5 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4cc6…dfe9backed Penguins | 32c | 534.38$171 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$171 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.32per pick | 32cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe60a…6a47backed Penguins | 32c | 524$166 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$166.33 | 1,948 | 49.4%962 W · 986 L | +24.9wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1ae7…cf61backed Wild | 71c | 422.3$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$122.51 | 130 | 60%78 W · 52 L | +1.4wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked Wild | 68c | 225.63$153 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72.15 | 1,679 | 54.4%914 W · 765 L | +36.6wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5137…1556backed Wild | 69c | 190$131 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.9 | 874 | 47%411 W · 463 L | +3.5wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x16b2…a881backed Wild | 68c | 142.94$97 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.74 | 881 | 51.2%451 W · 430 L | +10.4wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb590…15d3backed Wild | 72c | 138.89$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.89 | 481 | 61.3%295 W · 186 L | +21.3wins | +0.04per pick | 57cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe83c…5e8fbacked Penguins | 28c | 135.86$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.04 | 728 | 47.9%349 W · 379 L | -1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9f1f…0b36backed Penguins | 31c | 100$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31 | 94 | 44.7%42 W · 52 L | -4.3wins | -0.05per pick | 49cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x89ad…5e22backed Wild | 69c | 91$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.21 | 34 | 47.1%16 W · 18 L | -2.9wins | -0.09per pick | 56cpaid | -19.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0495…c68fbacked Penguins | 32c | 80$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.6 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -21.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3b09…f95dbacked Wild | 72c | 57.25$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.03 | 33 | 78.8%26 W · 7 L | +3.2wins | +0.10per pick | 69cpaid | +12.9%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6564…7246backed Wild | 71c | 46.48$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.48 | 20 | 75%15 W · 5 L | +1.2wins | +0.06per pick | 69cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2dfd…0d00backed Wild | 72c | 44.44$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.44 | 20 | 80%16 W · 4 L | +2.3wins | +0.11per pick | 69cpaid | +16.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf1b0…53c3backed Wild | 72c | 43.06$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.06 | 27 | 66.7%18 W · 9 L | -0.8wins | -0.03per pick | 70cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3e0b…cd84backed Wild | 68c | 37.74$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.08 | 121 | 53.7%65 W · 56 L | +4.0wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa89e…4ab4backed Wild | 69c | 37$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.47 | 44 | 61.4%27 W · 17 L | +1.3wins | +0.03per pick | 58cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NHL and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Penguins (-1.5)this page
- Spread: Wild (-1.5)Wild won
- Wild vs. PenguinsWild won
- Wild vs. Penguins: O/U 5.5Under won
- Wild vs. Penguins: O/U 6.5Under won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.