NHL · resolved market
Wild vs. Penguins: O/U 6.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xef0bfe7d77a23171801866e58e5f6e340485baf832ee967d0082056cd7e4a446
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NHLevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $78,700
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $79,108
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $78,700 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 38 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NHL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NHL | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x6a72…33eebacked Under | 57c | 70,899$40,341 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30,558.12 | 1,345 | 54.8%737 W · 608 L | +21.0wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9e5e…fd91backed Over | 44c | 37,654$16,568 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16,567.63 | 24 | 62.5%15 W · 9 L | +2.5wins | +0.11per pick | 52cpaid | +19.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8058…d023backed Over | 42c | 14,484$6,083 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$6,083.21 | 38 | 55.3%21 W · 17 L | +2.3wins | +0.06per pick | 49cpaid | +13.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x57a8…6933backed Over | 42c | 5,945$2,497 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,496.9 | 388 | 44.6%173 W · 215 L | -17.1wins | -0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1341…0853backed Over | 42c | 5,829$2,448 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,448.23 | 418 | 50%209 W · 209 L | +7.7wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf5e1…5ad0backed Over | 42c | 5,555$2,355 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,355.32 | 331 | 51.7%171 W · 160 L | +9.0wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Over | 42c | 2,180$913 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$913.36 | 2,894 | 51.3%1,484 W · 1,410 L | +58.0wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xec13…862bbacked Over | 42c | 2,030$852 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$852.46 | 225 | 46.2%104 W · 121 L | -3.3wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xba26…23c9backed Under | 57c | 1,000$575 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$425 | 1,143 | 50.8%581 W · 562 L | +11.8wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5137…1556backed Over | 42c | 612.37$257 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$257.2 | 874 | 47%411 W · 463 L | +3.5wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3505…f7a3backed Under | 58c | 565.52$328 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$237.52 | 59 | 45.8%27 W · 32 L | -5.7wins | -0.10per pick | 56cpaid | -19.6%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xf13b…9ef9backed Under | 58c | 424.02$248 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$176.15 | 490 | 53.7%263 W · 227 L | -1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa1d7…a70cbacked Under | 58c | 382.76$222 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$160.76 | 309 | 46.3%143 W · 166 L | -7.2wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x504f…3ddcbacked Under | 58c | 344.83$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$144.83 | 113 | 54%61 W · 52 L | +1.4wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3c82…b56bbacked Under | 58c | 344.83$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$144.83 | 140 | 65.7%92 W · 48 L | +13.9wins | +0.10per pick | 56cpaid | +18.9%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Under | 37c | 329.21$122 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$207.3 | 2,664 | 51.6%1,375 W · 1,289 L | +58.0wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x74ef…1ac6backed Over | 63c | 317.46$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 21 | 42.9%9 W · 12 L | -3.1wins | -0.15per pick | 57cpaid | -26.9%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x3b18…5055backed Over | 53c | 317.46$168 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$168.25 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.53per pick | 53cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf332…3c89backed Under | 58c | 172.41$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72.41 | 76 | 50%38 W · 38 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1d94…9100backed Over | 43c | 151$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.31 | 1,530 | 51.7%791 W · 739 L | +22.5wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x205f…0189backed Under | 58c | 118.97$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.97 | 153 | 47.7%73 W · 80 L | -7.7wins | -0.05per pick | 53cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe6cd…e027backed Over | 56c | 100$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56 | 148 | 40.5%60 W · 88 L | -13.5wins | -0.09per pick | 50cpaid | -19.4%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x49ab…f2a9backed Over | 42c | 100$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42 | 198 | 44.4%88 W · 110 L | -4.7wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x10b0…8525backed Under | 57c | 100$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43 | 353 | 49.6%175 W · 178 L | -0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a3…9489backed Under | 44c | 95$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.2 | 629 | 51.2%322 W · 307 L | +18.5wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x64b4…90c6backed Under | 58c | 82.76$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.76 | 12 | 58.3%7 W · 5 L | +1.0wins | +0.08per pick | 50cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcd53…a861backed Under | 57c | 82$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.26 | 40 | 55%22 W · 18 L | -2.0wins | -0.05per pick | 60cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8725…eb10backed Over | 43c | 57$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.51 | 629 | 44%277 W · 352 L | -14.4wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x591a…aec2backed Under | 58c | 40$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.8 | 136 | 44.9%61 W · 75 L | -6.5wins | -0.05per pick | 50cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdc4f…93d9backed Under | 58c | 36.21$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.21 | 13 | 30.8%4 W · 9 L | -2.4wins | -0.18per pick | 49cpaid | -37.9%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x97f1…c325backed Under | 58c | 34.48$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.48 | 32 | 50%16 W · 16 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8d4e…8163backed Under | 58c | 34.48$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.48 | 24 | 58.3%14 W · 10 L | +1.1wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3d27…d430backed Under | 58c | 34.48$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.48 | 40 | 47.5%19 W · 21 L | -1.9wins | -0.05per pick | 52cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xac53…821fbacked Under | 58c | 30$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.6 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.08per pick | 58cpaid | -13.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x42b5…b5b6backed Over | 42c | 25.86$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.86 | 1,377 | 49.1%676 W · 701 L | +39.2wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x36c9…3f9fbacked Over | 43c | 24$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.32 | 22 | 40.9%9 W · 13 L | -2.5wins | -0.11per pick | 52cpaid | -25.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc52e…0a1cbacked Under | 58c | 20.54$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.54 | 87 | 59.8%52 W · 35 L | +4.3wins | +0.05per pick | 55cpaid | +8.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf09d…115fbacked Under | 57c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.6 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | -0.8wins | -0.06per pick | 52cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NHL and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Wild vs. Penguins: O/U 6.5this page
- Spread: Penguins (-1.5)Wild won
- Spread: Wild (-1.5)Wild won
- Wild vs. PenguinsWild won
- Wild vs. Penguins: O/U 5.5Under won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.