NHL · resolved market
Wild vs. Penguins: O/U 5.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xb79ca2b1e3f26432a8e6e77b3f9a33f10d70c682c6c4f20b3b5a4135abc92a87
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NHLevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $26,602
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $26,704
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $26,602 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 28 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NHL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NHL | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x9e5e…fd91backed Over | 56c | 16,412$9,183 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$9,183.12 | 24 | 62.5%15 W · 9 L | +2.5wins | +0.11per pick | 52cpaid | +19.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb230…4193backed Under | 44c | 10,000$4,400 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,600 | 78 | 50%39 W · 39 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Under | 44c | 5,897$2,595 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,302.6 | 2,894 | 51.3%1,484 W · 1,410 L | +58.0wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcb43…3c74backed Over | 55c | 4,625$2,550 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,549.99 | 304 | 47.4%144 W · 160 L | -5.3wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1d3a…7b63backed Under | 45c | 3,412$1,536 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,876.86 | 866 | 49.9%432 W · 434 L | +1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8f7a…db40backed Over | 56c | 2,000$1,120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,120 | 119 | 46.2%55 W · 64 L | -4.3wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x733d…1ae7backed Under | 44c | 1,500$660 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$840 | 210 | 48.1%101 W · 109 L | +1.8wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5137…1556backed Under | 38c | 1,039$390 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$649.12 | 874 | 47%411 W · 463 L | +3.5wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8889…a9d1backed Under | 45c | 985.22$443 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$541.87 | 203 | 45.3%92 W · 111 L | -4.3wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x14f3…0c3dbacked Over | 56c | 950$532 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$532 | 148 | 48%71 W · 77 L | -0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a3…9489backed Under | 44c | 765.22$337 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$428.52 | 629 | 51.2%322 W · 307 L | +18.5wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x84f7…ade1backed Under | 44c | 757$333 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$423.92 | 1,024 | 48.4%496 W · 528 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xba26…23c9backed Over | 56c | 499.99$280 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$280 | 1,143 | 50.8%581 W · 562 L | +11.8wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe78e…55f0backed Under | 45c | 454.35$204 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$249.89 | 58 | 60.3%35 W · 23 L | +6.9wins | +0.12per pick | 48cpaid | +24.7%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x5b20…99e9backed Under | 44c | 295.45$130 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$165.45 | 1,093 | 51.8%566 W · 527 L | +14.2wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb113…8bc6backed Under | 44c | 237.22$104 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$133 | 495 | 46.5%230 W · 265 L | -10.5wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x33a7…960dbacked Under | 45c | 220$99 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$121.05 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +11.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x480d…f219backed Over | 56c | 178.57$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 851 | 48.5%413 W · 438 L | -48.2wins | -0.06per pick | 54cpaid | -11.6%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe60a…6a47backed Under | 44c | 101$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.56 | 1,948 | 49.4%962 W · 986 L | +24.9wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3e0b…cd84backed Under | 44c | 100$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56 | 121 | 53.7%65 W · 56 L | +4.0wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdb12…f057backed Under | 43c | 69$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.33 | 232 | 49.1%114 W · 118 L | -1.4wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa924…b1b9backed Over | 57c | 69$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.33 | 337 | 35%118 W · 219 L | +10.5wins | +0.03per pick | 32cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8725…eb10backed Under | 45c | 66$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.3 | 629 | 44%277 W · 352 L | -14.4wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdf19…976bbacked Under | 46c | 34.78$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.78 | 42 | 50%21 W · 21 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa8a3…a380backed Under | 44c | 25$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14 | 36 | 52.8%19 W · 17 L | +1.0wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9696…2bc3backed Under | 44c | 24$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.44 | 285 | 42.8%122 W · 163 L | -3.2wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1d94…9100backed Under | 45c | 23.4$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.87 | 1,530 | 51.7%791 W · 739 L | +22.5wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0c55…9d52backed Over | 56c | 20$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.2 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NHL and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Wild vs. Penguins: O/U 5.5this page
- Spread: Penguins (-1.5)Wild won
- Spread: Wild (-1.5)Wild won
- Wild vs. PenguinsWild won
- Wild vs. Penguins: O/U 6.5Under won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.