Bundesliga · resolved market
Eintracht Frankfurt vs. Hamburger SV: O/U 1.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x5f7c885fb61e845311b408c5b5901a925b8eb99691322b2ebb8176161b809512
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Bundesligaevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $17,111
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $22,143
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $17,111 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 29 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Bundesliga is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Under | 46c | 5,206$2,417 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,416.69 | 2,538 | 39.8%1,009 W · 1,529 L | -8.1wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Over | 57c | 2,061$1,176 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$884.9 | 3,284 | 42.6%1,399 W · 1,885 L | -74.0wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9e19…1495backed Over | 54c | 1,860$1,004 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$855.6 | 23 | 73.9%17 W · 6 L | +2.7wins | +0.12per pick | 62cpaid | +17.3%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x106b…4e8bbacked Over | 53c | 824.53$437 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$387.53 | 15 | 40%6 W · 9 L | -1.0wins | -0.07per pick | 47cpaid | -24%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3c80…93b5backed Over | 53c | 707.74$375 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$332.64 | 55 | 38.2%21 W · 34 L | -5.3wins | -0.10per pick | 48cpaid | -19.2%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x6396…3e5cbacked Under | 43c | 665.9$289 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$288.73 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.14per pick | 39cpaid | -35.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x160b…4296backed Under | 14c | 605$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84.7 | 387 | 48.3%187 W · 200 L | -3.4wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x84ad…bfb7backed Under | 37c | 565.82$207 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$207.38 | 640 | 43.9%281 W · 359 L | -9.7wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -17.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3b5c…126ebacked Under | 14c | 489.94$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.44 | 271 | 38.4%104 W · 167 L | -9.0wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -17%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7479…e171backed Under | 46c | 206.94$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95.91 | 63 | 55.6%35 W · 28 L | +3.3wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +12.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0095…42c1backed Over | 54c | 185.19$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85.19 | 36 | 55.6%20 W · 16 L | -1.3wins | -0.04per pick | 59cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf706…f685backed Over | 54c | 185.19$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85.19 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | -0.7wins | -0.05per pick | 59cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf0ca…117abacked Over | 54c | 185.19$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85.19 | 53 | 49.1%26 W · 27 L | +1.6wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +12.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x325f…4511backed Under | 30c | 148$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.82 | 531 | 40.7%216 W · 315 L | -13.3wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5df5…c44cbacked Over | 58c | 134$77 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.65 | 147 | 55.8%82 W · 65 L | +5.9wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe619…6342backed Under | 48c | 104.17$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 34 | 29.4%10 W · 24 L | -5.3wins | -0.16per pick | 45cpaid | -44.2%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xd37a…2358backed Under | 15c | 104.14$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.62 | 624 | 52.6%328 W · 296 L | -9.9wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf2ba…4028backed Over | 68c | 100$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32 | 388 | 45.6%177 W · 211 L | +3.8wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x210e…59f5backed Over | 66c | 99.99$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34 | 4 | 100%4 W · 0 L | +1.5wins | +0.38per pick | 62cpaid | +60.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6814…a9e7backed Over | 60c | 88.28$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.67 | 339 | 38.1%129 W · 210 L | -16.0wins | -0.05per pick | 43cpaid | -24.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc253…5800backed Over | 65c | 76.92$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.92 | 42 | 69%29 W · 13 L | +5.2wins | +0.12per pick | 57cpaid | +25%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xed58…f083backed Over | 66c | 75.15$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.55 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.08per pick | 58cpaid | -24.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xba43…f1aabacked Over | 53c | 68.89$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.38 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.14per pick | 53cpaid | +18.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf38c…d9f2backed Over | 56c | 65$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.3 | 117 | 48.7%57 W · 60 L | -3.8wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x29a5…a3c4backed Over | 75c | 60$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15 | 109 | 56%61 W · 48 L | +3.0wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked Over | 77c | 57.8$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.58 | 486 | 58.6%285 W · 201 L | +44.5wins | +0.09per pick | 49cpaid | +33%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xe083…d0d5backed Over | 70c | 44$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.2 | 18 | 72.2%13 W · 5 L | +0.7wins | +0.04per pick | 68cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfdae…6ad2backed Over | 55c | 36.36$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.36 | 30 | 56.7%17 W · 13 L | -2.7wins | -0.09per pick | 66cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5c18…c208backed Over | 56c | 25$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11 | 54 | 61.1%33 W · 21 L | +3.8wins | +0.07per pick | 54cpaid | +18.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Eintracht Frankfurt vs. Hamburger SV: O/U 1.5this page
- Eintracht Frankfurt vs. Hamburger SV: Both Teams to ScoreYes won
- Eintracht Frankfurt vs. Hamburger SV: O/U 2.5Over won
- Eintracht Frankfurt vs. Hamburger SV: O/U 3.5Under won
- Eintracht Frankfurt vs. Hamburger SV: O/U 4.5Under won
- Spread: Eintracht Frankfurt (-1.5)Hamburger SV won
- Spread: Eintracht Frankfurt (-2.5)Hamburger SV won
- Spread: Hamburger SV (-1.5)Eintracht Frankfurt won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.