Bundesliga · resolved market
Spread: Eintracht Frankfurt (-1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x7f2d03366f04cc2f558726acf7374afaed54d70d787173e18eca445a14253380
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Hamburger SVof Eintracht Frankfurt, Hamburger SV
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Bundesligaevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $2,974
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $3,017
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $2,974 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 23 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Bundesliga is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x6945…873dbacked Hamburger SV | 67c | 895.03$600 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$295.03 | 61 | 49.2%30 W · 31 L | -5.3wins | -0.09per pick | 58cpaid | -16.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Eintracht Frankfurt | 33c | 771.9$254 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$254.01 | 3,284 | 42.6%1,399 W · 1,885 L | -74.0wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa6af…b5efbacked Hamburger SV | 67c | 298.51$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$98.51 | 61 | 47.5%29 W · 32 L | -8.5wins | -0.14per pick | 62cpaid | -28.6%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x84ad…bfb7backed Hamburger SV | 69c | 265$182 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$82.63 | 640 | 43.9%281 W · 359 L | -9.7wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -17.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x424e…263bbacked Hamburger SV | 67c | 255.94$170 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85.61 | 287 | 55.1%158 W · 129 L | +12.3wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x325f…4511backed Eintracht Frankfurt | 21c | 234.32$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.55 | 531 | 40.7%216 W · 315 L | -13.3wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6835…1976backed Eintracht Frankfurt | 33c | 234.02$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.23 | 205 | 45.9%94 W · 111 L | +1.6wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6888…4c79backed Hamburger SV | 67c | 148.57$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.57 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +0.5wins | +0.07per pick | 64cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6e5b…bb9abacked Hamburger SV | 68c | 126.31$86 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.42 | 72 | 54.2%39 W · 33 L | +1.5wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7ea5…de7bbacked Eintracht Frankfurt | 32c | 124.71$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.91 | 1,681 | 45.2%759 W · 922 L | +6.8wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdb83…1e50backed Eintracht Frankfurt | 33c | 114.29$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.72 | 264 | 45.5%120 W · 144 L | -2.7wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1d6a…8bbcbacked Eintracht Frankfurt | 35c | 99.49$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.82 | 22 | 31.8%7 W · 15 L | -1.2wins | -0.05per pick | 37cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9787…37dfbacked Eintracht Frankfurt | 34c | 88.24$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 27 | 40.7%11 W · 16 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3b5c…126ebacked Hamburger SV | 65c | 79.98$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.99 | 271 | 38.4%104 W · 167 L | -9.0wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -17%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x200f…7a96backed Eintracht Frankfurt | 32c | 73.23$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.43 | 1,083 | 50.8%550 W · 533 L | +8.2wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8d88…1e28backed Eintracht Frankfurt | 19c | 61.73$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.73 | 45 | 33.3%15 W · 30 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -17.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6814…a9e7backed Eintracht Frankfurt | 32c | 56.16$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.2 | 339 | 38.1%129 W · 210 L | -16.0wins | -0.05per pick | 43cpaid | -24.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5df5…c44cbacked Eintracht Frankfurt | 32c | 54.47$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.21 | 147 | 55.8%82 W · 65 L | +5.9wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x35e7…8331backed Hamburger SV | 67c | 50$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.5 | 40 | 57.5%23 W · 17 L | +2.9wins | +0.07per pick | 50cpaid | +22.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1e3b…e232backed Hamburger SV | 67c | 48.96$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.06 | 202 | 51%103 W · 99 L | -4.3wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4cfd…3d84backed Eintracht Frankfurt | 34c | 44.12$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 19 | 21.1%4 W · 15 L | -2.4wins | -0.13per pick | 34cpaid | -41.9%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x17b6…af55backed Hamburger SV | 66c | 19.99$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.8 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.06per pick | 69cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x628b…6861backed Hamburger SV | 67c | 19.02$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.28 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.10per pick | 65cpaid | +35.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Eintracht Frankfurt (-1.5)this page
- Eintracht Frankfurt vs. Hamburger SV: Both Teams to ScoreYes won
- Eintracht Frankfurt vs. Hamburger SV: O/U 1.5Over won
- Eintracht Frankfurt vs. Hamburger SV: O/U 2.5Over won
- Eintracht Frankfurt vs. Hamburger SV: O/U 3.5Under won
- Eintracht Frankfurt vs. Hamburger SV: O/U 4.5Under won
- Spread: Eintracht Frankfurt (-2.5)Hamburger SV won
- Spread: Hamburger SV (-1.5)Eintracht Frankfurt won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.