Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 29°C on April 26?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x5fe4f10bca3de309dfbefb1e44b25085db677141ebbabe63ea0b90615f8ab927
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $10,100
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $12,386
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $10,100 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 47 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x238d…eb74backed Yes | 2c | 599.99$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 63 | 1.6%1 W · 62 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 2cpaid | -26.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked Yes | 11c | 353$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.83 | 4,347 | 29.7%1,293 W · 3,054 L | +19.8wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7b20…bc23backed No | 59c | 338$199 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$138.58 | 811 | 65.8%534 W · 277 L | -37.1wins | -0.05per pick | 70cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x17f0…20febacked Yes | 4c | 330.04$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.67 | 151 | 6.6%10 W · 141 L | -3.2wins | -0.02per pick | 9cpaid | -53.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xba8d…009dbacked No | 35c | 310.89$107 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$203.48 | 601 | 21%126 W · 475 L | -25.4wins | -0.04per pick | 25cpaid | -42.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xaff9…64ffbacked Yes | 24c | 255.64$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.28 | 2,674 | 30%803 W · 1,871 L | +5.4wins | 0.00per pick | 30cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb06a…52f5backed Yes | 65c | 211.67$137 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$136.83 | 5,832 | 36.7%2,138 W · 3,694 L | +211.1wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0b87…9414backed No | 17c | 147.9$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$122.76 | 2,001 | 38.4%768 W · 1,233 L | +1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6ec8…99d2backed No | 65c | 133.85$87 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.85 | 833 | 60.7%506 W · 327 L | +1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 61cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9010…df3ebacked Yes | 9c | 110.1$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.3 | 141 | 44%62 W · 79 L | +9.0wins | +0.06per pick | 38cpaid | +13.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4d02…704cbacked Yes | 35c | 108.31$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.86 | 321 | 32.7%105 W · 216 L | +6.3wins | +0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1838…29b4backed Yes | 32c | 107.6$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.73 | 963 | 13.7%132 W · 831 L | +33.9wins | +0.04per pick | 10cpaid | +35.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaa93…0bc7backed Yes | 25c | 104.31$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.39 | 3,859 | 23.4%903 W · 2,956 L | +128.4wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | +10%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x116d…fbf1backed Yes | 53c | 79.42$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.81 | 178 | 59%105 W · 73 L | +20.1wins | +0.11per pick | 48cpaid | +26.2%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked Yes | 51c | 73.56$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.41 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5542…01cebacked No | 49c | 68.4$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.99 | 13 | 92.3%12 W · 1 L | +3.1wins | +0.24per pick | 68cpaid | +38.3%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xb964…927fbacked Yes | 25c | 65.79$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.72 | 183 | 27.3%50 W · 133 L | +2.6wins | +0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3cc0…1912backed Yes | 27c | 64.94$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.53 | 161 | 16.1%26 W · 135 L | -7.1wins | -0.04per pick | 21cpaid | -34.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x362f…b8eabacked Yes | 25c | 64.57$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.27 | 55 | 49.1%27 W · 28 L | +0.9wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd425…bf47backed No | 75c | 64.12$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.29 | 50 | 68%34 W · 16 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 23c | 61.95$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.06 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x108f…7136backed Yes | 34c | 61.39$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.63 | 48 | 41.7%20 W · 28 L | +1.8wins | +0.04per pick | 38cpaid | +24.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x57ee…8112backed Yes | 27c | 60.11$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.51 | 1,727 | 18%311 W · 1,416 L | +74.3wins | +0.04per pick | 14cpaid | +11%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x75b0…e7b7backed No | 75c | 60$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15 | 1,585 | 78.5%1,244 W · 341 L | +39.7wins | +0.03per pick | 76cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 73c | 55.03$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.04 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2189…13f1backed No | 76c | 52.4$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.58 | 34 | 44.1%15 W · 19 L | -4.4wins | -0.13per pick | 57cpaid | -27.6%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x01a6…59b0backed No | 76c | 52.05$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.61 | 1,679 | 61.7%1,036 W · 643 L | +6.3wins | 0.00per pick | 61cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfba3…4e15backed No | 50c | 50$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25 | 278 | 51.8%144 W · 134 L | +4.3wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2986…b3a9backed No | 30c | 50$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35 | 2,995 | 31.4%940 W · 2,055 L | +41.6wins | +0.01per pick | 30cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed No | 76c | 49.34$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.84 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xae68…064abacked No | 75c | 47$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.61 | 2,555 | 63.8%1,631 W · 924 L | +38.4wins | +0.02per pick | 62cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9471…eb8abacked Yes | 40c | 45.62$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.37 | 34 | 17.6%6 W · 28 L | +0.7wins | +0.02per pick | 16cpaid | +59.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfd8e…aea4backed No | 75c | 40$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 2,268 | 79.5%1,803 W · 465 L | +98.4wins | +0.04per pick | 75cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbff7…554fbacked Yes | 66c | 33.24$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.93 | 1,026 | 60.8%624 W · 402 L | +11.0wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeb54…d452backed No | 59c | 32.99$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.53 | 4,525 | 65.6%2,967 W · 1,558 L | -134.0wins | -0.03per pick | 69cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8215…1279backed Yes | 66c | 32.84$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.53 | 387 | 58.7%227 W · 160 L | +3.5wins | +0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf05a…d78fbacked No | 79c | 31.65$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.65 | 126 | 70.6%89 W · 37 L | +4.1wins | +0.03per pick | 67cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8f34…2f50backed No | 72c | 30$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.4 | 4,120 | 60.8%2,506 W · 1,614 L | +32.7wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe422…4d64backed No | 45c | 30$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.5 | 2,065 | 43.6%900 W · 1,165 L | -11.3wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9410…9160backed No | 70c | 30$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.93 | 420 | 49%206 W · 214 L | -15.9wins | -0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x71f1…708cbacked Yes | 40c | 28.2$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.31 | 37 | 35.1%13 W · 24 L | -4.6wins | -0.12per pick | 48cpaid | -27%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked No | 46c | 27.8$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.01 | 2,119 | 36.1%764 W · 1,355 L | -12.1wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -26.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x038a…ba3fbacked No | 75c | 24.38$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.09 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.14per pick | 66cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed No | 60c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x93ed…35c4backed No | 67c | 17.6$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.81 | 178 | 61.2%109 W · 69 L | -8.0wins | -0.04per pick | 66cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8a5c…e8f2backed No | 75c | 16.58$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.14 | 107 | 36.4%39 W · 68 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfe61…e9c2backed No | 76c | 14.08$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.38 | 73 | 84.9%62 W · 11 L | +6.0wins | +0.08per pick | 77cpaid | +11.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 29°C on April 26?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 25°C on April 26?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 26°C on April 26?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 27°C on April 26?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 28°C on April 26?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 30°C on April 26?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 31°C on April 26?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.