AI · resolved market
OpenAI social app before June?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x600b9efa66af82bbcdbd3fbb1cd919a7694d964ce190fcf775fa57b961e439e1
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- AIevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $24,404
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $19,564
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $24,404 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 28 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in AI is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in AI | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x4556…2271backed Yes | 3c | 3,500$105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$104.99 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa58d…b9b8backed Yes | 9c | 1,698$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150.08 | 301 | 27.2%82 W · 219 L | +1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 27cpaid | -15.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcdbf…1926backed Yes | 6c | 858.43$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.25 | 97 | 25.8%25 W · 72 L | -2.3wins | -0.02per pick | 28cpaid | -38.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf27a…1d05backed Yes | 8c | 786.17$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.84 | 24 | 20.8%5 W · 19 L | +0.6wins | +0.03per pick | 18cpaid | +3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7458…fecfbacked No | 80c | 670$536 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$134 | 18 | 16.7%3 W · 15 L | -5.1wins | -0.28per pick | 45cpaid | -77.7%equal weight | 37-0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x98a2…033fbacked Yes | 20c | 650$130 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$130 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -1.5wins | -0.29per pick | 29cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfed5…7472backed Yes | 3c | 625$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 14 | 28.6%4 W · 10 L | +0.5wins | +0.03per pick | 25cpaid | -41.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xca6c…bba5backed Yes | 5c | 564.91$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.8wins | +0.20per pick | 30cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd3ea…cb98backed Yes | 14c | 533.32$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -0.8wins | -0.09per pick | 31cpaid | -50.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc979…4a98backed Yes | 15c | 444.26$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.37 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -0.8wins | -0.10per pick | 35cpaid | -53.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8e8d…5a27backed Yes | 5c | 429.01$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.17 | 69 | 5.8%4 W · 65 L | -2.4wins | -0.03per pick | 9cpaid | -78.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 3c | 413.02$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.37 | 1,363 | 6.8%93 W · 1,270 L | -20.2wins | -0.01per pick | 8cpaid | -59.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x06e1…d431backed Yes | 24c | 399.98$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | +0.2wins | +0.03per pick | 35cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdefd…3f9dbacked Yes | 15c | 356.79$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.52 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0a1a…83eabacked Yes | 15c | 346.85$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.33 | 17 | 17.6%3 W · 14 L | -2.5wins | -0.14per pick | 32cpaid | -66%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x239a…a0c6backed No | 76c | 323.52$244 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$79.05 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7853…36d8backed Yes | 14c | 279.41$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.12 | 110 | 30.9%34 W · 76 L | -4.7wins | -0.04per pick | 35cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbfb4…ae30backed Yes | 12c | 262.48$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.5 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | +1.5wins | +0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xabe5…5eb2backed Yes | 11c | 227.27$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x322e…bae4backed Yes | 5c | 200$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4947…d6fabacked Yes | 6c | 190$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.4 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2741…0865backed Yes | 15c | 170.91$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.86 | 39 | 20.5%8 W · 31 L | -2.0wins | -0.05per pick | 26cpaid | -32.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4fad…1480backed Yes | 10c | 145.86$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.9 | 156 | 15.4%24 W · 132 L | -8.9wins | -0.06per pick | 21cpaid | -79.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb6be…fcfebacked Yes | 26c | 80$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 17 | 35.3%6 W · 11 L | -1.5wins | -0.09per pick | 44cpaid | -28.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x75e7…9080backed Yes | 14c | 76$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.84 | 104 | 26.9%28 W · 76 L | +5.3wins | +0.05per pick | 22cpaid | -25.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 17c | 74.82$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.54 | 729 | 35.5%259 W · 470 L | -57.8wins | -0.08per pick | 43cpaid | -26.5%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x5eef…27f9backed No | 72c | 32$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.04 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -30.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x28b4…8d97backed No | 75c | 26.67$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.67 | 10 | 70%7 W · 3 L | +0.6wins | +0.06per pick | 64cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in AI and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.