Tennis · resolved market
ITF Wuning: Arvid Nordquist vs Yuta Kawahashi
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x6041e1bbf26b8debd6d04feb63025c1293848da5c838204369be87f87f5957c9
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yuta Kawahashiof Arvid Nordquist, Yuta Kawahashi
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tennisevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $4,537
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $4,014
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $4,537 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 18 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tennis is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tennis | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xc07d…b1dfbacked Yuta Kawahashi | 65c | 1,869$1,222 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$646.83 | 2,383 | 55.6%1,326 W · 1,057 L | +49.3wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc26a…b715backed Arvid Nordquist | 28c | 785.71$220 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$220 | 573 | 21.8%125 W · 448 L | -13.1wins | -0.02per pick | 24cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4be6…b010backed Arvid Nordquist | 51c | 742$380 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$380 | 1,428 | 48.2%689 W · 739 L | +4.0wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xda77…683fbacked Arvid Nordquist | 22c | 384$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82.94 | 5,416 | 48.6%2,633 W · 2,783 L | +14.5wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x09da…56ffbacked Arvid Nordquist | 33c | 281.82$93 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$93 | 118 | 32.2%38 W · 80 L | -2.9wins | -0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa373…b6dcbacked Arvid Nordquist | 64c | 234.69$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 543 | 48.1%261 W · 282 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa9f5…937fbacked Arvid Nordquist | 7c | 194.58$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.62 | 4,602 | 48.3%2,223 W · 2,379 L | +34.4wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Arvid Nordquist | 36c | 133.52$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.42 | 8,505 | 42.6%3,619 W · 4,886 L | -166.3wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -21.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8649…ba57backed Yuta Kawahashi | 42c | 130$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75.1 | 796 | 46%366 W · 430 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa0be…e6c2backed Arvid Nordquist | 34c | 129.21$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.38 | 42 | 47.6%20 W · 22 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc4fe…601fbacked Arvid Nordquist | 26c | 117.91$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.4 | 6,449 | 46.3%2,987 W · 3,462 L | -42.9wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -13%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8a80…11c5backed Yuta Kawahashi | 73c | 102$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.78 | 739 | 51.7%382 W · 357 L | -4.9wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x775d…6bebbacked Yuta Kawahashi | 71c | 90$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.55 | 1,767 | 52.1%920 W · 847 L | -2.2wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6553…7a71backed Arvid Nordquist | 50c | 68.22$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.11 | 1,125 | 51.1%575 W · 550 L | -11.2wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5210…bd53backed Yuta Kawahashi | 50c | 54$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27 | 3,874 | 45.4%1,758 W · 2,116 L | -39.6wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x74f9…6024backed Arvid Nordquist | 54c | 50$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27 | 561 | 53.7%301 W · 260 L | +19.9wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb7f3…d6dcbacked Yuta Kawahashi | 59c | 26.35$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.92 | 870 | 60.2%524 W · 346 L | +28.4wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x65ec…a2f9backed Yuta Kawahashi | 56c | 21.43$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.43 | 450 | 53.3%240 W · 210 L | -4.8wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tennis and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.