Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Jakarta be 34°C on May 3?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x60509cbb8ab2b99c0f19ab13f7b2ccbae34a7ef846e3d80a79634dd382a14a74
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $12,729
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $16,637
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $12,729 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 50 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xaab0…6364backed Yes | 74c | 3,675$2,707 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$968.89 | 49 | 38.8%19 W · 30 L | +1.5wins | +0.03per pick | 36cpaid | +91.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcf00…353fbacked No | 17c | 406.35$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.59 | 591 | 21.5%127 W · 464 L | -30.1wins | -0.05per pick | 27cpaid | -46.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xcbac…435fbacked No | 4c | 367.55$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.99 | 81 | 53.1%43 W · 38 L | +3.4wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | +9.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 44c | 312.54$137 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$137.13 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2dc5…da90backed No | 30c | 257.59$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.22 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -1.3wins | -0.26per pick | 26cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked No | 8c | 218$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.12 | 4,347 | 29.7%1,293 W · 3,054 L | +19.8wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x17f0…20febacked No | 5c | 202.35$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.12 | 151 | 6.6%10 W · 141 L | -3.2wins | -0.02per pick | 9cpaid | -53.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3322…7dc2backed Yes | 51c | 170.22$87 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$83.57 | 152 | 36.2%55 W · 97 L | +5.4wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc120…a7e3backed No | 12c | 155.85$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.04 | 1,299 | 54.1%703 W · 596 L | +24.7wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed Yes | 44c | 140.26$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78.57 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2b59…9db6backed No | 13c | 134.76$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.17 | 1,901 | 55.6%1,057 W · 844 L | +7.7wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xeb7f…0abbbacked Yes | 38c | 128.32$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80.06 | 189 | 48.1%91 W · 98 L | -3.0wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3d1d…9e61backed No | 38c | 125.78$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.51 | 2,870 | 64.8%1,860 W · 1,010 L | -32.8wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbd0d…1fb4backed Yes | 35c | 124.99$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81.86 | 242 | 38%92 W · 150 L | +11.6wins | +0.05per pick | 33cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed No | 55c | 104.64$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.62 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdafd…2ad4backed Yes | 31c | 99.04$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.34 | 122 | 28.7%35 W · 87 L | +9.2wins | +0.08per pick | 21cpaid | +38.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xdedd…17e1backed No | 50c | 89.8$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.07 | 2,432 | 60.4%1,470 W · 962 L | +30.2wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x85c8…80f8backed No | 18c | 85$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.94 | 391 | 58.1%227 W · 164 L | -1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2612…5289backed No | 52c | 83.95$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.4 | 3,048 | 40.5%1,234 W · 1,814 L | -121.5wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xedbd…dd60backed No | 32c | 80$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.96 | 3,301 | 65%2,147 W · 1,154 L | -38.5wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa708…9321backed No | 36c | 76.2$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.15 | 1,299 | 57.5%747 W · 552 L | +11.8wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7e4b…ac6bbacked No | 15c | 75$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.32 | 358 | 54.7%196 W · 162 L | -13.7wins | -0.04per pick | 59cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed Yes | 25c | 70.23$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.89 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xae68…064abacked No | 76c | 63.17$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.14 | 2,555 | 63.8%1,631 W · 924 L | +38.4wins | +0.02per pick | 62cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5964…35dfbacked No | 25c | 60.99$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.11 | 1,279 | 33.6%430 W · 849 L | -6.3wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5235…43a8backed No | 60c | 59.51$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.66 | 245 | 39.6%97 W · 148 L | +10.6wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | +13.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8215…1279backed No | 18c | 57.62$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.52 | 387 | 58.7%227 W · 160 L | +3.5wins | +0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x93ed…35c4backed Yes | 56c | 53.71$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.71 | 178 | 61.2%109 W · 69 L | -8.0wins | -0.04per pick | 66cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x958a…9f65backed No | 38c | 52.58$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.76 | 558 | 55.2%308 W · 250 L | -10.0wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2869…527dbacked No | 63c | 52.18$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.61 | 937 | 34.9%327 W · 610 L | -203.5wins | -0.22per pick | 57cpaid | -43.2%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x2986…b3a9backed No | 30c | 49.99$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 2,995 | 31.4%940 W · 2,055 L | +41.6wins | +0.01per pick | 30cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd611…53c8backed No | 60c | 45.02$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.06 | 72 | 77.8%56 W · 16 L | +3.6wins | +0.05per pick | 73cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x10e0…92e4backed Yes | 35c | 45$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.12 | 277 | 44%122 W · 155 L | +0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked Yes | 68c | 44.82$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.36 | 3,474 | 33.9%1,177 W · 2,297 L | -175.6wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9bda…439fbacked No | 59c | 42.37$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 594 | 40.6%241 W · 353 L | -3.5wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2753…e28abacked Yes | 74c | 40.58$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.58 | 420 | 61.2%257 W · 163 L | +19.7wins | +0.05per pick | 57cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x39c9…b108backed No | 74c | 40$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.6 | 344 | 57%196 W · 148 L | +8.6wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5536…70ebbacked Yes | 60c | 30.51$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.08 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3f30…f8debacked Yes | 51c | 30$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.7 | 3,830 | 47.1%1,805 W · 2,025 L | +63.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8f34…2f50backed No | 45c | 29.99$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.63 | 4,120 | 60.8%2,506 W · 1,614 L | +32.7wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2a25…8055backed No | 61c | 27.7$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.98 | 197 | 64.5%127 W · 70 L | -8.0wins | -0.04per pick | 69cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6659…b7cabacked No | 64c | 26.95$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.2 | 938 | 37.6%353 W · 585 L | -14.5wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4560…8ce8backed No | 46c | 23.91$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.99 | 350 | 58.3%204 W · 146 L | +4.8wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6136…64f8backed Yes | 49c | 22.29$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.29 | 11 | 63.6%7 W · 4 L | +2.3wins | +0.21per pick | 43cpaid | +33.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe34d…41f0backed Yes | 62c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.6 | 121 | 47.9%58 W · 63 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5848…1e49backed No | 63c | 19.99$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.65 | 863 | 62.9%543 W · 320 L | -1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 63cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2698…2941backed No | 52c | 19.52$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.24 | 1,011 | 61.2%619 W · 392 L | +14.2wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa98a…a5a8backed No | 72c | 15.8$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.31 | 2,015 | 67.7%1,365 W · 650 L | +1.8wins | 0.00per pick | 68cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6fd4…5cfcbacked No | 69c | 14.74$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.17 | 572 | 64.5%369 W · 203 L | -10.5wins | -0.02per pick | 66cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4676…b720backed Yes | 74c | 14.09$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.61 | 981 | 60.6%594 W · 387 L | +9.2wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Jakarta be 34°C on May 3?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Jakarta be 30°C on May 3?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Jakarta be 31°C on May 3?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Jakarta be 32°C on May 3?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Jakarta be 33°C on May 3?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Jakarta be 35°C on May 3?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.