Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in London be 10°C on December 22?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x605100faab718428524a7d43fcb74e226090b540e6cb6096d7b9eb624c6eefd1
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $50,583
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $48,842
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $50,583 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 31 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x8bad…b337backed No | 2c | 13,553$298 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$298.16 | 323 | 10.5%34 W · 289 L | +15.6wins | +0.05per pick | 6cpaid | +54.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2b28…d021backed No | 3c | 3,850$115 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$114.55 | 287 | 18.5%53 W · 234 L | +15.9wins | +0.06per pick | 13cpaid | +113.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd8f8…0f11backed No | 2c | 2,565$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.72 | 966 | 20.7%200 W · 766 L | +59.8wins | +0.06per pick | 15cpaid | +96.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x08cf…8cbcbacked Yes | 29c | 1,311$386 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$924.75 | 107 | 51.4%55 W · 52 L | +9.2wins | +0.09per pick | 43cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x8278…9464backed No | 71c | 1,209$861 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$860.54 | 132 | 50%66 W · 66 L | +10.0wins | +0.08per pick | 42cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4b6a…db19backed Yes | 2c | 1,158$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,130.01 | 147 | 19.7%29 W · 118 L | +4.0wins | +0.03per pick | 17cpaid | +126.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x584e…090fbacked Yes | 28c | 1,040$294 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$745.97 | 478 | 34.3%164 W · 314 L | +22.0wins | +0.05per pick | 30cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc981…a75dbacked No | 1c | 1,000$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 384 | 10.7%41 W · 343 L | +2.6wins | +0.01per pick | 10cpaid | +103.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8f13…daaebacked No | 9c | 970.36$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$89.83 | 633 | 23.9%151 W · 482 L | -20.0wins | -0.03per pick | 27cpaid | -45%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6297…517ebacked No | 2c | 631.49$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.43 | 1,643 | 27.8%456 W · 1,187 L | +117.6wins | +0.07per pick | 21cpaid | +33%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xc216…9523backed No | 2c | 630.86$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.42 | 11 | 9.1%1 W · 10 L | -2.0wins | -0.18per pick | 27cpaid | -82.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2e33…5330backed No | 70c | 587.89$409 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$409.23 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.70per pick | 70cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x57ee…8112backed No | 3c | 513.21$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.1 | 1,727 | 18%311 W · 1,416 L | +74.3wins | +0.04per pick | 14cpaid | +11%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5520…32ffbacked No | 2c | 500$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | +0.9wins | +0.11per pick | 2cpaid | +525%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3681…4e48backed Yes | 6c | 235.84$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$221.94 | 1,375 | 56%770 W · 605 L | +25.7wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2380…ba2ebacked Yes | 63c | 233.28$148 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85.23 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -23.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xef28…2d50backed Yes | 9c | 200$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$183 | 126 | 24.6%31 W · 95 L | +4.3wins | +0.03per pick | 21cpaid | +25.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x05c8…092abacked Yes | 6c | 200$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$188.81 | 361 | 23%83 W · 278 L | +15.0wins | +0.04per pick | 19cpaid | +27.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9469…6d18backed No | 30c | 200$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 959 | 42.4%407 W · 552 L | +84.9wins | +0.09per pick | 34cpaid | +27.4%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xb4d8…0c8cbacked Yes | 11c | 125.62$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$111.48 | 169 | 24.3%41 W · 128 L | -2.1wins | -0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xda14…9cd2backed Yes | 11c | 107$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$95.27 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | +0.3wins | +0.03per pick | 41cpaid | +77.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x66ca…8078backed Yes | 11c | 100$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$89 | 23 | 43.5%10 W · 13 L | +1.2wins | +0.05per pick | 38cpaid | +22.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x906f…371abacked No | 72c | 92$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.48 | 2,495 | 69.9%1,744 W · 751 L | +80.3wins | +0.03per pick | 67cpaid | +5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbae0…5cd6backed Yes | 75c | 72.93$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.51 | 19 | 31.6%6 W · 13 L | -1.7wins | -0.09per pick | 40cpaid | -39.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3a7e…78b1backed Yes | 55c | 64.88$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.44 | 164 | 65.2%107 W · 57 L | +18.9wins | +0.11per pick | 54cpaid | +27.4%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xb3f8…503abacked Yes | 17c | 62.71$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.3 | 112 | 28.6%32 W · 80 L | -3.4wins | -0.03per pick | 32cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7dc8…d12ebacked No | 56c | 53.9$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.5wins | +0.13per pick | 37cpaid | +186.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc9cd…453cbacked Yes | 23c | 50$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.5 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x89b4…55bcbacked Yes | 30c | 50$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35 | 930 | 34%316 W · 614 L | +53.0wins | +0.06per pick | 28cpaid | +13.2%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe353…d040backed No | 78c | 25$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.5 | 38 | 44.7%17 W · 21 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc877…05b4backed No | 48c | 21.91$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.46 | 115 | 40%46 W · 69 L | -5.5wins | -0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -14%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in London be 10°C on December 22?this page
- Will the highest temperature in London be 11°C on December 22?No won
- Will the highest temperature in London be 12°C on December 22?No won
- Will the highest temperature in London be 13°C or higher on December 22?No won
- Will the highest temperature in London be 8°C on December 22?No won
- Will the highest temperature in London be 9°C on December 22?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.