MLB · resolved market
Spread: San Francisco Giants (-1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x605c7ffe706430dfd978e1cd69df0e31e3376b86a0065eb7b24337829fd0cc44
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Washington Nationalsof San Francisco Giants, Washington Nationals
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $5,885
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $5,821
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $5,885 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 29 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x0828…d60abacked San Francisco Giants | 38c | 3,500$1,330 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,329.99 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -1.1wins | -0.19per pick | 36cpaid | -49.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked Washington Nationals | 62c | 2,700$1,674 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,026.12 | 1,865 | 52%970 W · 895 L | +50.8wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +9.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd81f…6b75backed San Francisco Giants | 45c | 1,097$494 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$493.53 | 1,010 | 48.1%486 W · 524 L | -13.2wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Washington Nationals | 55c | 1,068$588 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$479.91 | 1,355 | 49.8%675 W · 680 L | +7.6wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x37c1…c53abacked Washington Nationals | 61c | 517.33$315 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$201.85 | 1,041 | 50.1%522 W · 519 L | +17.2wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7462…3ac3backed Washington Nationals | 62c | 472.84$293 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$179.68 | 57 | 54.4%31 W · 26 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed San Francisco Giants | 39c | 466.99$182 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$182.13 | 9,728 | 46.3%4,506 W · 5,222 L | +32.8wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9fbd…3d15backed Washington Nationals | 58c | 128.4$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.93 | 186 | 48.4%90 W · 96 L | +2.0wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc978…706bbacked Washington Nationals | 56c | 123.02$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.13 | 310 | 46.5%144 W · 166 L | +2.9wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1b9b…bc4abacked San Francisco Giants | 44c | 115.97$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.03 | 564 | 40.4%228 W · 336 L | -16.5wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7634…600dbacked San Francisco Giants | 44c | 99.99$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44 | 603 | 50.1%302 W · 301 L | -10.0wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7d84…a7bdbacked Washington Nationals | 62c | 97.72$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.13 | 28 | 46.4%13 W · 15 L | -3.6wins | -0.13per pick | 59cpaid | -24%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x202f…7b58backed San Francisco Giants | 42c | 89.63$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.64 | 12 | 58.3%7 W · 5 L | +1.8wins | +0.15per pick | 43cpaid | +38.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdd80…5ef4backed Washington Nationals | 56c | 86.93$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.25 | 127 | 50.4%64 W · 63 L | -3.2wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8811…627cbacked Washington Nationals | 74c | 76.1$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.53 | 554 | 64.1%355 W · 199 L | +63.1wins | +0.11per pick | 53cpaid | +19.3%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xff34…694bbacked Washington Nationals | 62c | 73.29$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.85 | 5,234 | 56.8%2,971 W · 2,263 L | +130.4wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0905…e5c0backed San Francisco Giants | 44c | 49.99$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 1,661 | 43.5%722 W · 939 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe727…f6e1backed Washington Nationals | 62c | 44.13$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.77 | 22 | 54.5%12 W · 10 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5bda…17a8backed San Francisco Giants | 43c | 40.35$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.35 | 1,753 | 50.8%890 W · 863 L | +29.2wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed San Francisco Giants | 30c | 39.4$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.82 | 12,247 | 46.4%5,687 W · 6,560 L | -68.6wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x424e…263bbacked San Francisco Giants | 45c | 34.92$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.71 | 1,769 | 51.6%912 W · 857 L | +16.9wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1dd2…9e07backed San Francisco Giants | 42c | 34.31$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.41 | 674 | 53%357 W · 317 L | +28.1wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | +9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb39b…14c9backed San Francisco Giants | 43c | 29$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.47 | 40 | 45%18 W · 22 L | +1.7wins | +0.04per pick | 41cpaid | +19.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x22da…2866backed Washington Nationals | 56c | 27.32$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.02 | 1,725 | 50.1%864 W · 861 L | -4.5wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x70fc…ab12backed Washington Nationals | 62c | 26.41$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.04 | 1,367 | 54.3%742 W · 625 L | +16.5wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7770…f99bbacked Washington Nationals | 57c | 20.53$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.83 | 64 | 46.9%30 W · 34 L | -5.8wins | -0.09per pick | 56cpaid | -16.3%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2528…b77dbacked Washington Nationals | 56c | 20.45$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9 | 1,630 | 55.2%899 W · 731 L | +2.2wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb29b…5568backed Washington Nationals | 66c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.8 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 59cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x161a…4103backed Washington Nationals | 57c | 18.51$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.96 | 4,035 | 57.7%2,330 W · 1,705 L | +72.2wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 10 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: San Francisco Giants (-1.5)this page
- San Francisco Giants vs. Washington NationalsWashington Nationals won
- San Francisco Giants vs. Washington Nationals: O/U 3.5Under won
- San Francisco Giants vs. Washington Nationals: O/U 4.5Under won
- San Francisco Giants vs. Washington Nationals: O/U 5.5Under won
- San Francisco Giants vs. Washington Nationals: O/U 6.5Under won
- San Francisco Giants vs. Washington Nationals: O/U 8.5Under won
- Spread: Washington Nationals (-1.5)Washington Nationals won
- Spread: Washington Nationals (-2.5)Washington Nationals won
- Spread: Washington Nationals (-3.5)San Francisco Giants won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.