MLB · resolved market
San Francisco Giants vs. Washington Nationals: O/U 8.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x25eeabeec180845ec0e8c0384bdd80b3b857e14a089dcbc2b2528bbcbc9afa08
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $14,780
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $14,993
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $14,780 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 66 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Under | 52c | 5,788$3,010 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,778.27 | 1,355 | 49.8%675 W · 680 L | +7.6wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1d7a…b22fbacked Over | 48c | 4,313$2,070 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,070.33 | 125 | 51.2%64 W · 61 L | +1.5wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x55d8…b384backed Over | 48c | 2,194$1,053 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,053.28 | 577 | 44.7%258 W · 319 L | -6.9wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd3df…82fabacked Under | 52c | 1,778$932 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$846.82 | 488 | 50.2%245 W · 243 L | +5.9wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7a30…8abdbacked Over | 49c | 1,034$506 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$505.69 | 680 | 53.2%362 W · 318 L | +2.2wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5e4a…eee7backed Over | 48c | 1,009$484 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$484.4 | 308 | 44.2%136 W · 172 L | -10.4wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Over | 45c | 546.38$247 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$247.02 | 9,728 | 46.3%4,506 W · 5,222 L | +32.8wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4dea…5e23backed Under | 52c | 503.45$262 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$241.66 | 425 | 50.1%213 W · 212 L | +8.3wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6814…a9e7backed Over | 21c | 402.27$86 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$86.29 | 2,389 | 43.4%1,037 W · 1,352 L | -25.4wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa697…59d5backed Under | 52c | 399.84$208 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$192.07 | 6,899 | 50.4%3,478 W · 3,421 L | -7.1wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9f2a…3706backed Over | 50c | 354$177 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$177 | 23 | 39.1%9 W · 14 L | -2.0wins | -0.08per pick | 48cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6001…0457backed Under | 52c | 305.88$159 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$147.01 | 185 | 53.5%99 W · 86 L | +6.8wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +8.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd81f…6b75backed Under | 51c | 238.07$121 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$116.65 | 1,010 | 48.1%486 W · 524 L | -13.2wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xacbe…85d4backed Under | 52c | 233.09$121 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$111.88 | 228 | 49.1%112 W · 116 L | +1.5wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9fbd…3d15backed Over | 55c | 229.15$126 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$125.93 | 186 | 48.4%90 W · 96 L | +2.0wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x34ca…9de7backed Under | 55c | 221.14$122 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$99.51 | 37 | 56.8%21 W · 16 L | -1.2wins | -0.03per pick | 60cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6027…4320backed Under | 45c | 216.65$97 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$119.16 | 840 | 49.4%415 W · 425 L | +8.2wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd8…eecabacked Over | 49c | 208.78$102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$101.77 | 222 | 48.6%108 W · 114 L | -4.0wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe70c…6272backed Over | 48c | 203.65$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97.75 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.48per pick | 48cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x068c…582ebacked Over | 49c | 197.84$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96.94 | 384 | 55.2%212 W · 172 L | +9.9wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf898…e720backed Over | 38c | 189.67$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.08 | 6,303 | 48.2%3,041 W · 3,262 L | +181.4wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb549…c2b6backed Under | 54c | 181.32$97 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$84.1 | 42 | 57.1%24 W · 18 L | +3.1wins | +0.07per pick | 50cpaid | +18.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xaab0…6364backed Under | 55c | 176.91$97 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$79.61 | 13 | 76.9%10 W · 3 L | +3.4wins | +0.26per pick | 51cpaid | +48.6%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x22da…2866backed Under | 53c | 146.85$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.02 | 1,725 | 50.1%864 W · 861 L | -4.5wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc291…5d74backed Under | 52c | 130$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.4 | 2,296 | 49.7%1,141 W · 1,155 L | +37.8wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2528…b77dbacked Under | 53c | 112.73$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.98 | 1,630 | 55.2%899 W · 731 L | +2.2wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe624…2928backed Over | 48c | 110$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.8 | 496 | 49.8%247 W · 249 L | +11.5wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | +6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5628…abbcbacked Under | 52c | 100.05$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.02 | 1,435 | 50%717 W · 718 L | -15.8wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x235e…5673backed Under | 52c | 97.12$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.62 | 61 | 60.7%37 W · 24 L | +8.4wins | +0.14per pick | 47cpaid | +26.4%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xbda3…ef65backed Over | 49c | 96.94$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.5 | 241 | 52.7%127 W · 114 L | -0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5d38…1b41backed Over | 48c | 96.88$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.5 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.1wins | -0.26per pick | 51cpaid | -51%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9b97…6084backed Over | 48c | 96.88$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.5 | 591 | 50.3%297 W · 294 L | +9.0wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf02f…1ed8backed Under | 50c | 94.09$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.05 | 1,345 | 47.7%642 W · 703 L | +10.2wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 54c | 91.09$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.74 | 12,247 | 46.4%5,687 W · 6,560 L | -68.6wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc7e5…2d3abacked Over | 27c | 89.86$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.9 | 940 | 34.3%322 W · 618 L | -2.8wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x01c7…e995backed Over | 47c | 71.29$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.51 | 678 | 49.3%334 W · 344 L | +7.4wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1a4d…4c76backed Under | 53c | 54.93$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.82 | 135 | 52.6%71 W · 64 L | -1.8wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0275…596dbacked Under | 53c | 54.87$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.71 | 68 | 52.9%36 W · 32 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcb0b…62cdbacked Under | 53c | 54.73$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.72 | 795 | 43%342 W · 453 L | -3.3wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5df5…c44cbacked Over | 19c | 54.67$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.21 | 1,269 | 47.4%602 W · 667 L | -31.0wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -13.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb5fd…b476backed Over | 49c | 53.42$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.17 | 113 | 42.5%48 W · 65 L | -8.5wins | -0.08per pick | 50cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8811…627cbacked Over | 36c | 50.58$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.23 | 554 | 64.1%355 W · 199 L | +63.1wins | +0.11per pick | 53cpaid | +19.3%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x47e3…e736backed Over | 50c | 50$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 47 | 42.6%20 W · 27 L | -4.7wins | -0.10per pick | 53cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1105…2775backed Under | 50c | 48.5$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.25 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +1.5wins | +0.30per pick | 50cpaid | +55.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1427…859fbacked Under | 50c | 48.5$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.25 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.0wins | +0.50per pick | 50cpaid | +99.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x36f9…5445backed Under | 53c | 45.84$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.54 | 158 | 58.2%92 W · 66 L | +8.2wins | +0.05per pick | 53cpaid | +14.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1e3b…e232backed Over | 48c | 43.62$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.79 | 2,947 | 51.9%1,529 W · 1,418 L | -34.0wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9fe5…7936backed Over | 48c | 40.07$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.38 | 192 | 48.4%93 W · 99 L | -5.5wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe9cd…1e2bbacked Over | 48c | 37.19$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.85 | 1,057 | 50.2%531 W · 526 L | +23.4wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x51eb…6bfabacked Under | 55c | 35.38$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.92 | 704 | 55%387 W · 317 L | +4.0wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdca9…0898backed Under | 55c | 34.75$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.64 | 30 | 50%15 W · 15 L | -2.4wins | -0.08per pick | 58cpaid | -12.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x16ea…9400backed Under | 52c | 32.2$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.46 | 252 | 49.6%125 W · 127 L | -2.0wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x84cc…3132backed Over | 47c | 29.54$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.88 | 117 | 53%62 W · 55 L | +5.0wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | +8.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1a59…a57ebacked Under | 72c | 29.18$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.05 | 677 | 42.2%286 W · 391 L | -36.7wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -18%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4ee6…f017backed Under | 53c | 27.4$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.88 | 54 | 42.6%23 W · 31 L | -5.1wins | -0.10per pick | 52cpaid | -16.9%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xba67…4727backed Over | 47c | 25.75$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.1 | 750 | 49.7%373 W · 377 L | +7.2wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3f98…ec35backed Under | 53c | 25.58$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.02 | 131 | 44.3%58 W · 73 L | -5.0wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x31c8…9487backed Under | 76c | 24.96$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6 | 270 | 53.7%145 W · 125 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | -6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xca20…7b68backed Under | 53c | 24.64$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.58 | 371 | 43.9%163 W · 208 L | -21.4wins | -0.06per pick | 50cpaid | -20.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0bf8…36c6backed Under | 53c | 24.62$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.57 | 42 | 57.1%24 W · 18 L | +0.8wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0bbd…98f2backed Over | 48c | 24.22$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.63 | 187 | 51.3%96 W · 91 L | +9.9wins | +0.05per pick | 46cpaid | +11.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8968…c3c1backed Under | 53c | 22.19$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.53 | 228 | 49.6%113 W · 115 L | -2.1wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7770…f99bbacked Under | 53c | 22.02$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.35 | 64 | 46.9%30 W · 34 L | -5.8wins | -0.09per pick | 56cpaid | -16.3%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa57f…930ebacked Under | 74c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.2 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.16per pick | 66cpaid | -32.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x33eb…b07ebacked Under | 57c | 17.55$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.54 | 41 | 48.8%20 W · 21 L | -3.8wins | -0.09per pick | 58cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd1ed…d7cbbacked Under | 74c | 14.77$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.84 | 4,381 | 44.9%1,966 W · 2,415 L | +77.8wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 10 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- San Francisco Giants vs. Washington Nationals: O/U 8.5this page
- San Francisco Giants vs. Washington NationalsWashington Nationals won
- San Francisco Giants vs. Washington Nationals: O/U 3.5Under won
- San Francisco Giants vs. Washington Nationals: O/U 4.5Under won
- San Francisco Giants vs. Washington Nationals: O/U 5.5Under won
- San Francisco Giants vs. Washington Nationals: O/U 6.5Under won
- Spread: San Francisco Giants (-1.5)Washington Nationals won
- Spread: Washington Nationals (-1.5)Washington Nationals won
- Spread: Washington Nationals (-2.5)Washington Nationals won
- Spread: Washington Nationals (-3.5)San Francisco Giants won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.