South American Leagues · resolved market
Will CR Flamengo vs. Cruzeiro EC end in a draw?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x607caee9c9c67924941bf43ea19cf3ff4cb1cfe30ca2111dfcca4c00e8b94d30
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- South American Leaguesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $30,600
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $31,713
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $30,600 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 51 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in South American Leagues is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in South American Leagues | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x2707…0afabacked Yes | 24c | 5,000$1,200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,200.06 | 131 | 34.4%45 W · 86 L | -4.4wins | -0.03per pick | 38cpaid | -19%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd37a…2358backed No | 77c | 3,723$2,864 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$858.53 | 1,487 | 48.7%724 W · 763 L | -17.4wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -10%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc1ae…f001backed Yes | 23c | 3,120$718 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$717.58 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.5wins | -0.10per pick | 30cpaid | -28.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x76bc…db0abacked Yes | 24c | 3,084$740 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$740 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -0.9wins | -0.13per pick | 27cpaid | -45.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1d94…9100backed Yes | 23c | 2,215$507 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$507.16 | 817 | 40.8%333 W · 484 L | +20.2wins | +0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed No | 78c | 1,905$1,486 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$419.16 | 8,107 | 48.7%3,948 W · 4,159 L | +26.8wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdbb9…ed8dbacked No | 76c | 1,727$1,312 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$414.47 | 53 | 54.7%29 W · 24 L | +0.9wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbb9f…557bbacked Yes | 17c | 1,249$215 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$214.82 | 196 | 30.6%60 W · 136 L | -0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | +11.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfbb5…2b6abacked Yes | 10c | 869.55$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90 | 391 | 27.1%106 W · 285 L | +2.2wins | +0.01per pick | 27cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x29c0…efaabacked No | 77c | 736.53$567 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$169.4 | 816 | 51.6%421 W · 395 L | +12.0wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1430…a753backed Yes | 23c | 655.99$151 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150.88 | 38 | 34.2%13 W · 25 L | +1.7wins | +0.04per pick | 30cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7baf…99a7backed Yes | 6c | 477.7$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 62 | 8.1%5 W · 57 L | -3.5wins | -0.06per pick | 14cpaid | -46.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x74bb…1759backed Yes | 23c | 435$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 88 | 31.8%28 W · 60 L | +3.6wins | +0.04per pick | 28cpaid | +20.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7ea5…de7bbacked No | 77c | 332.81$255 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$77.31 | 3,405 | 51.3%1,748 W · 1,657 L | +21.3wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd01c…7f9dbacked No | 78c | 270$211 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.4 | 1,355 | 49.7%674 W · 681 L | -8.1wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7f02…12f5backed Yes | 14c | 215$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 160 | 41.3%66 W · 94 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 41cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaae6…095ebacked Yes | 23c | 192.35$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.24 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.26per pick | 24cpaid | +92.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x49ed…a2fbbacked Yes | 22c | 187$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.14 | 43 | 46.5%20 W · 23 L | +1.1wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd5a1…0544backed Yes | 22c | 175.32$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.57 | 48 | 54.2%26 W · 22 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x881b…9893backed No | 77c | 163.76$126 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.76 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -35%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdc5b…08bbbacked Yes | 18c | 142.21$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.6 | 27 | 37%10 W · 17 L | -3.6wins | -0.13per pick | 50cpaid | -38.2%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x631c…7bfebacked Yes | 15c | 136.81$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.76 | 44 | 18.2%8 W · 36 L | -1.3wins | -0.03per pick | 21cpaid | -34%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x43e8…af56backed Yes | 22c | 135.06$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.71 | 74 | 50%37 W · 37 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3bfc…8eb3backed Yes | 12c | 133.5$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.46 | 15 | 40%6 W · 9 L | -0.6wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -29.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2b85…bf37backed Yes | 23c | 120$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.6 | 235 | 42.1%99 W · 136 L | -13.1wins | -0.06per pick | 48cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1813…4dfebacked Yes | 22c | 102.46$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.54 | 270 | 53%143 W · 127 L | +8.2wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd82a…5fcfbacked No | 76c | 100$76 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24 | 80 | 56.3%45 W · 35 L | +3.2wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | +10%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf2ba…4028backed Yes | 17c | 100$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 836 | 42.9%359 W · 477 L | -3.8wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfccd…02d6backed No | 77c | 100$77 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23 | 24 | 62.5%15 W · 9 L | +0.6wins | +0.03per pick | 60cpaid | +8.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x576c…f218backed No | 78c | 100$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.5 | 170 | 66.5%113 W · 57 L | +6.4wins | +0.04per pick | 63cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8935…7daabacked No | 76c | 97.3$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.16 | 675 | 48%324 W · 351 L | -18.6wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xeb76…7ffebacked Yes | 21c | 97.17$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.1 | 100 | 33%33 W · 67 L | -6.2wins | -0.06per pick | 39cpaid | -24.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xaea0…0decbacked Yes | 16c | 90$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.4 | 175 | 42.3%74 W · 101 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x972b…78babacked Yes | 23c | 79.19$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.87 | 1,428 | 51.8%740 W · 688 L | +22.5wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf30a…61fbbacked Yes | 13c | 79$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.47 | 184 | 46.2%85 W · 99 L | -5.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -17.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb6a2…4b66backed Yes | 17c | 66.34$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.97 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 27cpaid | -38.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x849f…0665backed No | 77c | 57.93$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.52 | 75 | 54.7%41 W · 34 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x452f…b277backed Yes | 24c | 57.29$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.7 | 116 | 37.1%43 W · 73 L | -5.1wins | -0.04per pick | 41cpaid | -11%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb226…4469backed No | 77c | 45.76$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.55 | 57 | 54.4%31 W · 26 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf038…e718backed Yes | 24c | 41.84$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -1.9wins | -0.27per pick | 27cpaid | -100%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x69ee…6e35backed No | 76c | 38.54$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.19 | 213 | 59.6%127 W · 86 L | +8.6wins | +0.04per pick | 56cpaid | +9.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf02f…1ed8backed No | 76c | 37.1$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.77 | 507 | 46.7%237 W · 270 L | -5.8wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd418…d11fbacked No | 77c | 32.51$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.51 | 20 | 50%10 W · 10 L | -1.5wins | -0.08per pick | 58cpaid | -22.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcf73…0215backed No | 77c | 26.81$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.26 | 1,282 | 53.7%689 W · 593 L | +5.3wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6575…715bbacked No | 77c | 25.97$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.97 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.23per pick | 77cpaid | +29.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9b89…99e2backed No | 77c | 20.52$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.72 | 209 | 53.1%111 W · 98 L | -2.6wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1b9e…eb82backed No | 77c | 20.13$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.64 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 69cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3020…bc04backed No | 78c | 20$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.4 | 28 | 60.7%17 W · 11 L | +1.4wins | +0.05per pick | 56cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7789…d6c0backed No | 78c | 20$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.4 | 18 | 66.7%12 W · 6 L | +1.1wins | +0.06per pick | 60cpaid | +9.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x20e4…fa78backed No | 77c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.62 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.06per pick | 69cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xefb9…e74fbacked No | 76c | 19.3$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.56 | 19 | 73.7%14 W · 5 L | +3.7wins | +0.19per pick | 54cpaid | +32.1%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in South American Leagues and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will CR Flamengo vs. Cruzeiro EC end in a draw?this page
- Will CR Flamengo win on 2026-03-11?Yes won
- Will Cruzeiro EC win on 2026-03-11?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.