South American Leagues · resolved market
Will Cruzeiro EC win on 2026-03-11?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x662f13f1791c3b351c95ae7229c943764d21948d387e092d9bcf2ad3a3b4ca0e
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- South American Leaguesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $54,990
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $54,990 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 29 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in South American Leagues is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in South American Leagues | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x2707…0afabacked Yes | 15c | 5,000$750 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$750 | 131 | 34.4%45 W · 86 L | -4.4wins | -0.03per pick | 38cpaid | -19%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe524…d34fbacked Yes | 13c | 4,903$637 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$637.45 | 198 | 46%91 W · 107 L | +13.5wins | +0.07per pick | 39cpaid | +20%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x631c…7bfebacked Yes | 6c | 2,598$143 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$142.99 | 44 | 18.2%8 W · 36 L | -1.3wins | -0.03per pick | 21cpaid | -34%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe911…3d4ebacked Yes | 8c | 1,830$140 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$140.39 | 1,537 | 45.2%695 W · 842 L | +21.3wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x01c7…e995backed Yes | 4c | 1,444$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.61 | 1,362 | 44.9%611 W · 751 L | -22.0wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -19.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfbb5…2b6abacked Yes | 2c | 1,141$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26 | 391 | 27.1%106 W · 285 L | +2.2wins | +0.01per pick | 27cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8090…42c1backed Yes | 13c | 938.26$125 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$125 | 44 | 56.8%25 W · 19 L | -1.1wins | -0.02per pick | 59cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1624…bf63backed Yes | 4c | 923.06$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.43 | 211 | 32.7%69 W · 142 L | +2.0wins | +0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -23.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbb9f…557bbacked Yes | 13c | 786.77$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98.37 | 196 | 30.6%60 W · 136 L | -0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | +11.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1430…a753backed Yes | 14c | 656.97$92 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$91.98 | 38 | 34.2%13 W · 25 L | +1.7wins | +0.04per pick | 30cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd0e7…b14fbacked Yes | 15c | 613$91 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$91.4 | 85 | 30.6%26 W · 59 L | -3.9wins | -0.05per pick | 35cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc6f4…e01abacked Yes | 14c | 489.12$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.2 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +1.8wins | +0.23per pick | 40cpaid | +46.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xead1…c76abacked Yes | 14c | 448$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.72 | 192 | 39.1%75 W · 117 L | -3.9wins | -0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc73b…c3e9backed Yes | 5c | 225.84$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.81 | 32 | 50%16 W · 16 L | +2.3wins | +0.07per pick | 43cpaid | -18.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xada5…db70backed Yes | 14c | 203$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.59 | 127 | 36.2%46 W · 81 L | +1.5wins | +0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8007…4245backed Yes | 14c | 201.07$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28 | 24 | 33.3%8 W · 16 L | -1.6wins | -0.07per pick | 40cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfe23…e72bbacked Yes | 14c | 201$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28 | 22 | 68.2%15 W · 7 L | +4.8wins | +0.22per pick | 46cpaid | +49.8%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xc291…5d74backed Yes | 5c | 199.97$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.79 | 3,749 | 38.2%1,431 W · 2,318 L | -33.3wins | -0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6ac5…4b6ebacked Yes | 14c | 183.95$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.57 | 378 | 51.3%194 W · 184 L | +7.3wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x251e…04b6backed Yes | 12c | 163.92$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.67 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xea9e…d3fbbacked Yes | 13c | 149.14$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.94 | 312 | 26.6%83 W · 229 L | +1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 26cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2b85…bf37backed Yes | 14c | 145.57$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.38 | 235 | 42.1%99 W · 136 L | -13.1wins | -0.06per pick | 48cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x866a…de80backed Yes | 14c | 143.77$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 138 | 14.5%20 W · 118 L | -5.3wins | -0.04per pick | 18cpaid | -21.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x005c…a987backed Yes | 13c | 138.38$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.99 | 127 | 41.7%53 W · 74 L | -6.8wins | -0.05per pick | 47cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6e79…54d2backed Yes | 15c | 123.04$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 22cpaid | +39.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xefb9…e74fbacked Yes | 13c | 104.52$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.84 | 19 | 73.7%14 W · 5 L | +3.7wins | +0.19per pick | 54cpaid | +32.1%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xfe2d…c6b9backed Yes | 14c | 103.44$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.48 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.8wins | -0.21per pick | 21cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd01c…7f9dbacked Yes | 13c | 77.03$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.01 | 1,355 | 49.7%674 W · 681 L | -8.1wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5d18…cb83backed Yes | 23c | 65.05$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -48.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in South American Leagues and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Cruzeiro EC win on 2026-03-11?this page
- Will CR Flamengo vs. Cruzeiro EC end in a draw?No won
- Will CR Flamengo win on 2026-03-11?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.