Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 72-73°F on June 8?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x6084f7d9d4ce1823d3daf884cf4c4e950c1feb7a9a7e6c1d5977d0a487720ee7
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $31,870
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $37,295
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $31,870 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 29 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x3016…54e9backed Yes | 1c | 7,112$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.27 | 136 | 14.7%20 W · 116 L | +1.6wins | +0.01per pick | 14cpaid | -31.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x17e0…fe5bbacked Yes | 44c | 1,120$495 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$495.35 | 310 | 43.2%134 W · 176 L | +9.9wins | +0.03per pick | 40cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6297…517ebacked Yes | 3c | 365.62$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.17 | 1,643 | 27.8%456 W · 1,187 L | +117.6wins | +0.07per pick | 21cpaid | +33%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x82f3…9f82backed Yes | 9c | 354.59$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.28 | 1,455 | 24.7%359 W · 1,096 L | -33.3wins | -0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -16.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 77c | 328.9$255 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74.03 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe00f…abd9backed Yes | 17c | 295.22$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 121 | 47.9%58 W · 63 L | +3.3wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +8.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 53c | 276.56$147 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$129.72 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd9b5…9db1backed No | 72c | 246.13$178 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.69 | 886 | 50.2%445 W · 441 L | -14.4wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4bfe…b127backed Yes | 7c | 155.6$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.15 | 76 | 14.5%11 W · 65 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 15cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcfff…673dbacked No | 77c | 151.66$116 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.63 | 3,057 | 61.6%1,883 W · 1,174 L | -35.2wins | -0.01per pick | 63cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x885f…7bf9backed Yes | 34c | 150.3$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.63 | 546 | 56.4%308 W · 238 L | +15.6wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x420c…1f36backed Yes | 22c | 145.96$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32 | 298 | 35.2%105 W · 193 L | +2.8wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcd91…32b8backed No | 61c | 135.79$82 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.53 | 1,428 | 52.1%744 W · 684 L | -21.9wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf2a4…b2c7backed Yes | 8c | 126.93$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0a5b…7676backed Yes | 17c | 99.99$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | +0.2wins | +0.04per pick | 16cpaid | -58.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9819…fe16backed Yes | 16c | 99.82$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 79 | 49.4%39 W · 40 L | -1.5wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -21.1%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb06a…52f5backed Yes | 24c | 83.71$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.46 | 5,832 | 36.7%2,138 W · 3,694 L | +211.1wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6854…67d0backed No | 46c | 81.5$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.65 | 617 | 52.8%326 W · 291 L | -1.5wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xebe0…52dcbacked Yes | 15c | 80.91$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.39 | 47 | 38.3%18 W · 29 L | +1.4wins | +0.03per pick | 35cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc120…a7e3backed No | 52c | 80$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.63 | 1,299 | 54.1%703 W · 596 L | +24.7wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x425d…6cb0backed Yes | 52c | 75.12$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39 | 253 | 44.7%113 W · 140 L | -5.7wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 78c | 72.09$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.86 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf295…667abacked Yes | 16c | 65.09$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.66 | 23 | 47.8%11 W · 12 L | +3.4wins | +0.15per pick | 33cpaid | +17.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x91ef…b0f2backed No | 33c | 41.41$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.92 | 168 | 32.7%55 W · 113 L | +8.8wins | +0.05per pick | 28cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7f1c…55e4backed No | 51c | 38.68$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.08 | 48 | 87.5%42 W · 6 L | +12.0wins | +0.25per pick | 63cpaid | +49%equal weight | 68+0.16 edge/pick |
| 0x75d3…3f0ebacked No | 60c | 35.56$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.4 | 209 | 58.4%122 W · 87 L | -5.5wins | -0.03per pick | 61cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x604e…2cb1backed No | 38c | 28.72$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.79 | 14 | 7.1%1 W · 13 L | -3.4wins | -0.24per pick | 31cpaid | -81.2%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 76c | 22.99$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.57 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xf745…bf49backed Yes | 67c | 19.89$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.27 | 62 | 37.1%23 W · 39 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 72-73°F on June 8?this page
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 74-75°F on June 8?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 76-77°F on June 8?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 78-79°F on June 8?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 80-81°F on June 8?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 82-83°F on June 8?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.