TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Weather · resolved market

Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 74-75°F on June 8?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Yesof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$19,178
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$20,078

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $19,178 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 110 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Weather
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x331b…193fbacked No10c1,000$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10090040.7%366 W · 534 L+112.3wins+0.12per pick28cpaid+63.8%equal weight63+0.12 edge/pick
0xec86…60e4backed Yes24c733.32$178 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$555.741,16338.2%444 W · 719 L+19.4wins+0.02per pick37cpaid+5.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf787…1b63backed Yes43c676.23$288 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$388.2243238%164 W · 268 L+7.0wins+0.02per pick36cpaid-11.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4e77…54cfbacked Yes46c650.27$300 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$350.2731943.3%138 W · 181 L+6.5wins+0.02per pick41cpaid+0.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1cdd…e595backed No23c628.68$143 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$142.937,1489.3%666 W · 6,482 L-1,105.8wins-0.15per pick25cpaid-75.9%equal weight33-0.15 edge/pick
0xf1e1…c152backed No54c518.59$280 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$280.2320231.2%63 W · 139 L+22.2wins+0.11per pick20cpaid+13.6%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0xb0a5…0a36backed No24c422.31$103 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$102.682,08651.8%1,080 W · 1,006 L-45.0wins-0.02per pick54cpaid-7.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2612…5289backed No36c368.53$132 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$132.153,04840.5%1,234 W · 1,814 L-121.5wins-0.04per pick44cpaid-23.2%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xfbd8…4027backed No55c328.9$182 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$181.785,63159.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L-111.1wins-0.02per pick62cpaid-7.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd9b5…9db1backed No33c306.56$101 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$101.3288650.2%445 W · 441 L-14.4wins-0.02per pick52cpaid-11.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xfd55…f905backed No18c229.12$41 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40.934,54758.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L-107.5wins-0.02per pick61cpaid-8%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xc34f…7d2ebacked No43c218.89$93 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$93.1312,17346.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L-42.2wins0.00per pick47cpaid-13.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7e3d…bf10backed Yes46c200$92 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$108475%3 W · 1 L+0.8wins+0.20per pick56cpaid+53.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x2d0f…81aabacked Yes65c194.99$127 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$67.4927079.3%214 W · 56 L+52.5wins+0.19per pick60cpaid+30.3%equal weight70+0.18 edge/pick
0xa3e2…fdf8backed No52c194.81$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100.489,49045.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L-278.5wins-0.03per pick49cpaid-10.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x9cb3…1367backed Yes62c187.43$116 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$71.151,55433.1%515 W · 1,039 L-66.6wins-0.04per pick37cpaid-27.6%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x7300…e52cbacked No13c165.82$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.932,21420.7%458 W · 1,756 L-60.8wins-0.03per pick23cpaid-25.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xf8dc…f31fbacked Yes39c160.41$62 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$98.214,52526.7%1,206 W · 3,319 L+62.2wins+0.01per pick25cpaid-21.5%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xe008…f7d3backed No19c158.2$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3013423.1%31 W · 103 L-8.5wins-0.06per pick29cpaid-27.8%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x5a21…9318backed No20c155.44$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$31.036,59253.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L+400.2wins+0.06per pick47cpaid-6.5%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x1941…deeabacked No62c147.21$91 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$90.571,07236.6%392 W · 680 L+25.9wins+0.02per pick34cpaid+0.4%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xb40e…7cc9backed No31c145.94$46 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$45.9412,49819.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L-2,667.3wins-0.21per pick41cpaid-66.8%equal weight26-0.21 edge/pick
0x420c…1f36backed Yes52c135.83$70 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$65.8329835.2%105 W · 193 L+2.8wins+0.01per pick34cpaid-8.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xcd91…32b8backed No46c135.21$63 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$62.511,42852.1%744 W · 684 L-21.9wins-0.02per pick54cpaid-10.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xb627…d968backed No11c134.34$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.787846.2%36 W · 42 L+1.6wins+0.02per pick44cpaid+11.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe4bf…ef7cbacked No16c127.53$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$201827.8%5 W · 13 L-0.9wins-0.05per pick33cpaid-37%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xb06a…52f5backed Yes65c124.86$81 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$43.625,83236.7%2,138 W · 3,694 L+211.1wins+0.04per pick33cpaid-24.8%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x7c63…93d4backed No79c116.66$92 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$92.1110,35437.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L+417.6wins+0.04per pick34cpaid+16.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xc518…2594backed No16c115.35$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.811,92853.5%1,032 W · 896 L+39.0wins+0.02per pick52cpaid+2.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9819…fe16backed Yes67c114.87$77 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$37.877949.4%39 W · 40 L-1.5wins-0.02per pick51cpaid-21.1%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x103e…78b5backed Yes50c112.86$56 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$56.8216134.2%55 W · 106 L-3.8wins-0.02per pick37cpaid-9.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x506c…840cbacked Yes56c110.97$62 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$49.1515152.3%79 W · 72 L+0.9wins+0.01per pick52cpaid-2.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x77f0…2b1fbacked No77c108.42$84 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$84.013,02849.8%1,509 W · 1,519 L+16.8wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+10.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9a86…84ecbacked Yes22c106.55$24 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$82.7246549.9%232 W · 233 L+11.4wins+0.02per pick47cpaid-0.3%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x28bf…4a4ebacked No36c105$37 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$37.465,38956%3,017 W · 2,372 L-120.8wins-0.02per pick58cpaid-10.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x49c4…db5bbacked No58c103.94$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$601,27536.5%465 W · 810 L-15.9wins-0.01per pick38cpaid-9.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe9b1…79d7backed No75c103.63$78 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$78.0588973.2%651 W · 238 L+20.3wins+0.02per pick71cpaid+1.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8827…5d62backed Yes26c103.5$27 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$76.31,77250.5%895 W · 877 L+43.0wins+0.02per pick48cpaid+5.6%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x3646…ba5abacked Yes45c101$45 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$55.7640741.3%168 W · 239 L+32.5wins+0.08per pick33cpaid+21.9%equal weight58+0.08 edge/pick
0x1c9e…8d54backed No55c101$56 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$55.5527669.2%191 W · 85 L-6.8wins-0.02per pick72cpaid-3.5%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xe1d4…a31ebacked No10c100$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1016651.2%85 W · 81 L+10.4wins+0.06per pick45cpaid+3%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xe693…dd17backed No51c100$51 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5127841%114 W · 164 L-0.1wins0.00per pick41cpaid-19.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7cc7…6c9abacked Yes51c100$51 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$49.077647.4%36 W · 40 L+4.0wins+0.05per pick42cpaid+10%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x2250…4cd7backed No14c100$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.3911950.4%60 W · 59 L+6.7wins+0.06per pick45cpaid+15.6%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x7df0…0dfebacked No74c92.43$69 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$68.563,64265.9%2,400 W · 1,242 L+33.6wins+0.01per pick65cpaid+1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6854…67d0backed No52c91.5$47 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$47.2461752.8%326 W · 291 L-1.5wins0.00per pick53cpaid-3.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc120…a7e3backed No54c75.75$41 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40.61,29954.1%703 W · 596 L+24.7wins+0.02per pick52cpaid-1.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x7a12…f7fdbacked No46c75.2$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$34.8516045.6%73 W · 87 L-2.5wins-0.02per pick47cpaid-9.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe45e…fcb8backed Yes50c75$38 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$37.511343.4%49 W · 64 L-0.4wins0.00per pick44cpaid-9.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x764b…6badbacked No54c74.64$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$39.953,75561.1%2,293 W · 1,462 L-36.5wins-0.01per pick62cpaid-2.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xca07…6269backed No50c73.86$37 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$36.9371649.4%354 W · 362 L-18.9wins-0.03per pick52cpaid-7.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xd702…2087backed Yes40c68.4$27 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$41.134052.5%21 W · 19 L+1.3wins+0.03per pick49cpaid-3.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x40eb…ade9backed Yes49c67$33 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$34.1749547.1%233 W · 262 L+6.9wins+0.01per pick46cpaid+12.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5ea7…7450backed No67c65.3$44 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$43.8541760.4%252 W · 165 L-7.7wins-0.02per pick62cpaid-8.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x035b…c6ddbacked No48c62.5$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3025049.2%123 W · 127 L-10.2wins-0.04per pick53cpaid-14.1%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xda35…b2dbbacked Yes49c61.23$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$31.2346240.5%187 W · 275 L+3.8wins+0.01per pick40cpaid-3.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa4e9…0208backed Yes66c61.22$40 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$21.098947.2%42 W · 47 L+1.3wins+0.01per pick46cpaid+2.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xebe0…52dcbacked Yes34c59.65$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$39.664738.3%18 W · 29 L+1.4wins+0.03per pick35cpaid-3.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1798…1ce9backed Yes25c59.53$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$44.762,42844.9%1,091 W · 1,337 L-31.5wins-0.01per pick46cpaid+2.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x425d…6cb0backed Yes51c56.34$29 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$27.3425344.7%113 W · 140 L-5.7wins-0.02per pick47cpaid-10.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4e92…1245backed Yes62c50$31 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$19333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.9wins-0.29per pick63cpaid-46.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xb455…6af1backed No50c50$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2520%0 W · 2 L-1.2wins-0.62per pick62cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x2b13…62d3backed Yes24c49.56$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$37.431,05231.2%328 W · 724 L-8.4wins-0.01per pick32cpaid-9.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf045…c619backed Yes41c48.33$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$28.3318035.6%64 W · 116 L-3.7wins-0.02per pick38cpaid+0.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x34a9…4cfdbacked Yes29c48$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$34.022263.6%14 W · 8 L+5.4wins+0.24per pick39cpaid+75.5%equal weight63+0.11 edge/pick
0x958a…9f65backed No71c44.77$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$31.8255855.2%308 W · 250 L-10.0wins-0.02per pick57cpaid-13.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xb90b…ca12backed Yes54c43.4$24 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$19.873056.7%17 W · 13 L0.0wins0.00per pick57cpaid-3.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0380…073dbacked No71c42.47$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30.274,25765.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L+17.6wins0.00per pick65cpaid+1.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x68a3…5dd5backed No70c41.55$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.1946743.7%204 W · 263 L+7.1wins+0.02per pick42cpaid+2%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x9d8a…94cbbacked No68c40.19$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27.28949.4%44 W · 45 L-5.5wins-0.06per pick56cpaid-18.9%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x351a…f836backed Yes50c40$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2028649.3%141 W · 145 L+7.3wins+0.03per pick47cpaid+5.8%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xb21b…c396backed Yes48c40$19 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$20.6123241.8%97 W · 135 L+6.6wins+0.03per pick39cpaid-1.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x9016…3cecbacked Yes55c40$22 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$183482.4%28 W · 6 L+3.9wins+0.12per pick71cpaid+25.7%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0x070f…e902backed No48c39.98$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.9911459.6%68 W · 46 L+2.7wins+0.02per pick57cpaid+10%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x82ca…3135backed No33c39.36$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.11,02664%657 W · 369 L+49.8wins+0.05per pick59cpaid+4.4%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x52eb…67acbacked No55c38.44$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.144,98849.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L-155.4wins-0.03per pick53cpaid-9.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x4818…e5debacked No59c36.99$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.9931219.9%62 W · 250 L-40.4wins-0.13per pick33cpaid-59.1%equal weight37-0.12 edge/pick
0xbc29…b3b6backed No57c36.23$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.798252.4%43 W · 39 L+5.3wins+0.06per pick46cpaid+1.7%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x0752…7ac0backed Yes31c35.93$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$24.66850%4 W · 4 L-0.8wins-0.11per pick61cpaid-0.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xbd39…1beabacked Yes49c35$17 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$17.841266.7%8 W · 4 L+0.3wins+0.03per pick64cpaid+8.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9f20…12c3backed No73c32.76$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.974,10456.6%2,322 W · 1,782 L+50.5wins+0.01per pick55cpaid-6.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7247…ecb6backed Yes80c31.57$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6.315024%12 W · 38 L-1.3wins-0.03per pick27cpaid-1.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1ecd…9b27backed No80c30.12$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.12937.9%11 W · 18 L-1.5wins-0.05per pick43cpaid-39.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x6d77…a694backed No71c29.99$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.291,16057.3%665 W · 495 L+20.1wins+0.02per pick56cpaid+2.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x885f…7bf9backed Yes54c28.03$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12.9854656.4%308 W · 238 L+15.6wins+0.03per pick54cpaid+6.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xf2cf…464bbacked No79c28$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$221,11563.4%707 W · 408 L+29.7wins+0.03per pick61cpaid+4.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xb8b6…3b38backed No72c27.93$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2047175.6%356 W · 115 L+2.1wins0.00per pick75cpaid+0.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xedbd…dd60backed No52c27.58$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.33,30165%2,147 W · 1,154 L-38.5wins-0.01per pick66cpaid-3.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xdedd…17e1backed No78c26.78$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.942,43260.4%1,470 W · 962 L+30.2wins+0.01per pick59cpaid-7.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf745…bf49backed Yes63c26.12$16 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9.776237.1%23 W · 39 L+0.3wins+0.01per pick37cpaid+4.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe05b…6d6ebacked Yes50c26$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$136753.7%36 W · 31 L-1.5wins-0.02per pick56cpaid-3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x62a8…2132backed No80c25$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2071464.3%459 W · 255 L-37.4wins-0.05per pick70cpaid-10.4%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xe422…4d64backed No61c25$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.252,06543.6%900 W · 1,165 L-11.3wins-0.01per pick44cpaid-1.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc18b…f36fbacked Yes41c25$10 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14.751145.5%5 W · 6 L-0.5wins-0.04per pick50cpaid-6.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x86c2…8010backed No57c25$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.251,27147.6%605 W · 666 L-25.1wins-0.02per pick50cpaid-5.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x178a…f5b3backed No58c24.93$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.46250%1 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.06per pick56cpaid-7.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa49b…7054backed No74c23.89$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.657,48137.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L+97.4wins+0.01per pick36cpaid+6.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf707…e8cebacked Yes46c23.52$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12.75832.8%19 W · 39 L-0.5wins-0.01per pick34cpaid-17.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0b18…2639backed Yes51c23$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11.2743842%184 W · 254 L-14.7wins-0.03per pick45cpaid-9.4%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x945a…a48cbacked No46c22.3$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.39262.5%23 W · 903 L-379.9wins-0.41per pick44cpaid-90.2%equal weight6-0.40 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.