Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 20°C on August 19?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x6092eaf5e8f12b696c9d6c27005d7e1681bf4e52de21f04a53b016a7b84da393
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $10,004
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $12,061
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $10,004 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 70 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xf9f2…771fbacked No | 62c | 946.65$589 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$589.17 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.7wins | -0.13per pick | 33cpaid | -73.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x09b4…e56dbacked No | 44c | 621.81$273 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$273.31 | 720 | 42.2%304 W · 416 L | +26.5wins | +0.04per pick | 39cpaid | +30.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4829…97ebbacked No | 35c | 373.45$131 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$131.42 | 399 | 51.1%204 W · 195 L | +14.0wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +14.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x80c0…c4f6backed Yes | 58c | 346.49$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$146.49 | 195 | 59.5%116 W · 79 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 59cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x180e…29dfbacked Yes | 41c | 337.21$139 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$197.94 | 508 | 60.4%307 W · 201 L | +18.3wins | +0.04per pick | 57cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7353…b6c5backed No | 34c | 294.03$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$101 | 183 | 47%86 W · 97 L | -1.7wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe40a…e4a2backed No | 37c | 291.26$108 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$108.31 | 1,316 | 56.2%740 W · 576 L | -18.6wins | -0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaf17…5c20backed Yes | 26c | 210$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$155.4 | 1,787 | 25.7%460 W · 1,327 L | +132.5wins | +0.07per pick | 18cpaid | +50.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xf16d…b7f9backed Yes | 43c | 196.79$84 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$112.57 | 466 | 26%121 W · 345 L | -6.2wins | -0.01per pick | 27cpaid | -27.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x122c…fbedbacked Yes | 42c | 165.3$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$95.94 | 771 | 51%393 W · 378 L | +23.7wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 34c | 161.77$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.83 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0729…5f54backed Yes | 65c | 150.26$98 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.74 | 671 | 58.6%393 W · 278 L | -8.1wins | -0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf7aa…ddd6backed No | 63c | 138.64$87 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$86.82 | 1,274 | 50.9%649 W · 625 L | -35.9wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaa93…0bc7backed No | 13c | 130$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.99 | 3,859 | 23.4%903 W · 2,956 L | +128.4wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | +10%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfc8d…3257backed No | 22c | 130$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.1 | 200 | 25%50 W · 150 L | +6.6wins | +0.03per pick | 22cpaid | +9.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x30fb…7db4backed No | 54c | 118.88$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.32 | 4,117 | 47.6%1,958 W · 2,159 L | -158.0wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed Yes | 62c | 115.07$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.27 | 5,186 | 47.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L | +66.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x441a…e9c7backed Yes | 52c | 114$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.86 | 395 | 43.5%172 W · 223 L | -12.7wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 40c | 110$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.1 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9cfb…decbbacked Yes | 78c | 103.04$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.04 | 137 | 46%63 W · 74 L | -3.2wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xebdb…5ac4backed Yes | 56c | 100$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44 | 850 | 49.8%423 W · 427 L | -10.4wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5c0a…a2c3backed Yes | 56c | 100$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44 | 1,280 | 51.2%655 W · 625 L | -33.7wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3f30…f8debacked Yes | 56c | 90$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.5 | 3,830 | 47.1%1,805 W · 2,025 L | +63.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 56c | 84.9$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.36 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe695…538ebacked Yes | 61c | 80$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.89 | 818 | 55%450 W · 368 L | +1.5wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd7c2…e1e0backed Yes | 47c | 77$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.54 | 172 | 51.7%89 W · 83 L | +3.5wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked No | 74c | 71$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.54 | 4,988 | 49.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L | -155.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2e1f…8fdebacked No | 30c | 69.98$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.99 | 982 | 36.7%360 W · 622 L | +37.9wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8d60…a7a5backed Yes | 31c | 65.42$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.25 | 425 | 55.1%234 W · 191 L | +13.4wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfa28…c37ebacked Yes | 48c | 59$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.78 | 3,939 | 35.3%1,392 W · 2,547 L | +35.4wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x764b…6badbacked No | 62c | 54.38$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.48 | 3,755 | 61.1%2,293 W · 1,462 L | -36.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xad9d…e09dbacked Yes | 38c | 53.31$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.98 | 253 | 42.3%107 W · 146 L | +4.4wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbbb7…a11abacked Yes | 33c | 53$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.38 | 1,196 | 57.9%693 W · 503 L | +47.6wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb59a…6ed2backed Yes | 20c | 50$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40 | 44 | 18.2%8 W · 36 L | -1.7wins | -0.04per pick | 22cpaid | -27.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x04b3…1b7ebacked Yes | 41c | 48.78$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.78 | 1,385 | 65.8%911 W · 474 L | +62.8wins | +0.05per pick | 61cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x490e…123abacked Yes | 27c | 48.59$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.47 | 62 | 43.5%27 W · 35 L | +6.8wins | +0.11per pick | 33cpaid | +36.2%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 53c | 48.59$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.71 | 4,142 | 54.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L | -16.6wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Yes | 40c | 48.47$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.2 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xc662…0927backed No | 73c | 47$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.31 | 1,190 | 57.9%689 W · 501 L | -5.0wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x942e…be27backed No | 59c | 42.46$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.05 | 2,010 | 61.5%1,237 W · 773 L | -1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 67c | 42.07$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.25 | 4,547 | 58.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L | -107.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 40c | 41.26$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.76 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xec62…9191backed Yes | 55c | 40.9$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.41 | 1,102 | 40.7%448 W · 654 L | +18.7wins | +0.02per pick | 39cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6f46…77e8backed Yes | 27c | 40.78$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.86 | 126 | 25.4%32 W · 94 L | +9.0wins | +0.07per pick | 18cpaid | +45.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5284…27f5backed No | 57c | 40$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.8 | 182 | 40.1%73 W · 109 L | -16.6wins | -0.09per pick | 49cpaid | -21.6%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x7c3d…52d3backed Yes | 70c | 40$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.09per pick | 66cpaid | -18%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf03b…34fdbacked No | 58c | 40$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.2 | 54 | 53.7%29 W · 25 L | -4.4wins | -0.08per pick | 62cpaid | -15.5%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb87f…f7d4backed Yes | 43c | 40$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.8 | 149 | 57.7%86 W · 63 L | +6.1wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7c72…825ebacked Yes | 69c | 36.2$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.2 | 45 | 68.9%31 W · 14 L | -1.5wins | -0.03per pick | 72cpaid | -5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeb68…e362backed No | 50c | 35.07$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.64 | 2,118 | 59.1%1,251 W · 867 L | +107.9wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd358…cfbdbacked Yes | 34c | 35$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.1 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | +27.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xed30…87b1backed Yes | 60c | 32$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.69 | 185 | 49.7%92 W · 93 L | +5.0wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x38d6…d072backed Yes | 70c | 28$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.5 | 70 | 57.1%40 W · 30 L | -2.8wins | -0.04per pick | 61cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcfff…673dbacked No | 70c | 26$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.26 | 3,057 | 61.6%1,883 W · 1,174 L | -35.2wins | -0.01per pick | 63cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc6e2…06f4backed No | 58c | 25.36$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.71 | 184 | 49.5%91 W · 93 L | -4.6wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa33d…3ef2backed Yes | 40c | 25$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15 | 456 | 75.2%343 W · 113 L | +27.6wins | +0.06per pick | 69cpaid | +13%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4653…fc2bbacked Yes | 79c | 24.06$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.05 | 70 | 61.4%43 W · 27 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | +8.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x17ea…7838backed Yes | 79c | 24$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.04 | 70 | 57.1%40 W · 30 L | +8.1wins | +0.12per pick | 46cpaid | +37.5%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x487d…6813backed Yes | 67c | 22.57$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.39 | 61 | 42.6%26 W · 35 L | +3.4wins | +0.06per pick | 37cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1e8b…b7b8backed Yes | 55c | 21$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.45 | 54 | 42.6%23 W · 31 L | +4.8wins | +0.09per pick | 34cpaid | +22.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9d4e…7c1abacked No | 73c | 20$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.6 | 11 | 72.7%8 W · 3 L | +1.4wins | +0.13per pick | 60cpaid | +25.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0407…bcfdbacked No | 73c | 20$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.6 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | +4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x32d1…71b4backed No | 66c | 20$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.2 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | -2.4wins | -0.20per pick | 70cpaid | -28.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4dbc…9feabacked No | 73c | 20$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.6 | 16 | 43.8%7 W · 9 L | -2.5wins | -0.16per pick | 59cpaid | -24.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3ec4…5da9backed No | 71c | 19.99$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.2 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.71per pick | 71cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4add…6fe5backed Yes | 63c | 19$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.97 | 1,452 | 36.8%534 W · 918 L | +12.3wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 66c | 17.24$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.43 | 4,257 | 65.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xef61…2ee6backed No | 67c | 17$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.32 | 335 | 50.4%169 W · 166 L | -3.6wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5503…1248backed No | 74c | 16$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.84 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -2.2wins | -0.24per pick | 58cpaid | -47.9%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2b4b…c3e6backed Yes | 79c | 12.6$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.6 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -1.6wins | -0.23per pick | 66cpaid | -41.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 20°C on August 19?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 19°C on August 19?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 21°C on August 19?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 22°C on August 19?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.