Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 21°C on August 19?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xf416215ba18b4ed52d5adb1789cf210324c687eb9a591799b79f6cafd41df75f
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $6,669
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $7,432
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $6,669 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 54 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x9506…1c4fbacked No | 79c | 525.69$413 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$112.9 | 815 | 58.5%477 W · 338 L | +12.6wins | +0.02per pick | 57cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 33c | 385.02$127 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$127.06 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe40a…e4a2backed No | 74c | 304.07$225 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78.78 | 1,316 | 56.2%740 W · 576 L | -18.6wins | -0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf16d…b7f9backed No | 53c | 255.32$135 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$120 | 466 | 26%121 W · 345 L | -6.2wins | -0.01per pick | 27cpaid | -27.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6120…f1febacked Yes | 47c | 255.32$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120 | 827 | 42.8%354 W · 473 L | +2.7wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaa93…0bc7backed Yes | 7c | 219.98$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.1 | 3,859 | 23.4%903 W · 2,956 L | +128.4wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | +10%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9418…e9f8backed Yes | 45c | 211.11$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95.28 | 1,108 | 30%332 W · 776 L | -38.1wins | -0.03per pick | 33cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb1fe…cafebacked Yes | 49c | 208.04$103 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102.96 | 204 | 52%106 W · 98 L | +3.9wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked Yes | 21c | 151$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.71 | 4,988 | 49.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L | -155.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed No | 53c | 126.45$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.95 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 44c | 116.44$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.69 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xaf17…5c20backed Yes | 22c | 112$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.64 | 1,787 | 25.7%460 W · 1,327 L | +132.5wins | +0.07per pick | 18cpaid | +50.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xaa51…6199backed No | 72c | 103.88$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.76 | 622 | 75.2%468 W · 154 L | +15.5wins | +0.02per pick | 73cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7956…eba5backed Yes | 45c | 100.75$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 1,048 | 38.1%399 W · 649 L | -3.8wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf73f…ee53backed Yes | 22c | 100$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 2,950 | 33.6%992 W · 1,958 L | +9.9wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | +4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4708…9580backed No | 53c | 94.2$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.27 | 104 | 32.7%34 W · 70 L | -3.6wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -35%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa9b7…f43cbacked Yes | 34c | 90.71$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.49 | 308 | 34.4%106 W · 202 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4248…60abbacked Yes | 48c | 75.37$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.07 | 2,219 | 58.7%1,303 W · 916 L | -11.5wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb3df…463dbacked Yes | 33c | 73.48$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.05 | 94 | 56.4%53 W · 41 L | +7.7wins | +0.08per pick | 48cpaid | +16.8%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x441a…e9c7backed No | 50c | 72.04$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.02 | 395 | 43.5%172 W · 223 L | -12.7wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcb32…79aabacked No | 72c | 68.81$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.94 | 1,187 | 62.2%738 W · 449 L | +27.8wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfc8d…3257backed Yes | 24c | 62.96$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.07 | 200 | 25%50 W · 150 L | +6.6wins | +0.03per pick | 22cpaid | +9.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0729…5f54backed No | 77c | 60.76$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.24 | 671 | 58.6%393 W · 278 L | -8.1wins | -0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf7aa…ddd6backed No | 57c | 60.53$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.01 | 1,274 | 50.9%649 W · 625 L | -35.9wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 51c | 59.23$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.3 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x30fb…7db4backed No | 52c | 54.6$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.2 | 4,117 | 47.6%1,958 W · 2,159 L | -158.0wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc662…0927backed Yes | 43c | 50.63$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.96 | 1,190 | 57.9%689 W · 501 L | -5.0wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1d69…7a63backed No | 51c | 50$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.5 | 1,075 | 54.8%589 W · 486 L | -17.0wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x764b…6badbacked No | 55c | 50$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.7 | 3,755 | 61.1%2,293 W · 1,462 L | -36.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 63c | 48.59$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.19 | 4,142 | 54.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L | -16.6wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9c90…17efbacked No | 68c | 48.33$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.44 | 288 | 47.2%136 W · 152 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe7e9…fb3cbacked No | 72c | 45.6$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.57 | 190 | 60.5%115 W · 75 L | -3.5wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 52c | 45.43$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.99 | 4,547 | 58.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L | -107.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb3eb…b529backed Yes | 29c | 43.43$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.39 | 616 | 29.4%181 W · 435 L | +7.8wins | +0.01per pick | 28cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeaa9…1737backed Yes | 41c | 43$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.63 | 1,126 | 51.2%577 W · 549 L | -21.2wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1ba7…3d88backed Yes | 48c | 40$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.2 | 478 | 66.5%318 W · 160 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 67cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed No | 78c | 37.86$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.25 | 5,186 | 47.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L | +66.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 60c | 35.99$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.34 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x2e1f…8fdebacked No | 35c | 35$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.75 | 982 | 36.7%360 W · 622 L | +37.9wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9b12…c2d5backed No | 70c | 32.03$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.69 | 2,090 | 56.7%1,186 W · 904 L | +60.1wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe040…824fbacked No | 56c | 32$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.13 | 4,267 | 53.4%2,279 W · 1,988 L | +156.0wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xec62…9191backed Yes | 45c | 32$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.4 | 1,102 | 40.7%448 W · 654 L | +18.7wins | +0.02per pick | 39cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1abc…45e7backed No | 65c | 31.39$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.87 | 2,099 | 58.3%1,224 W · 875 L | +83.2wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbf13…b91abacked No | 53c | 30.17$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.03 | 264 | 42.4%112 W · 152 L | +12.8wins | +0.05per pick | 38cpaid | +16.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x95d3…6effbacked No | 55c | 30.01$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.5 | 317 | 48.6%154 W · 163 L | +16.0wins | +0.05per pick | 44cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 40c | 28$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.2 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7df0…0dfebacked No | 55c | 26.56$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.93 | 3,642 | 65.9%2,400 W · 1,242 L | +33.6wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x549c…100abacked Yes | 40c | 25$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 124 | 38.7%48 W · 76 L | +1.4wins | +0.01per pick | 38cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2b59…9db6backed Yes | 59c | 24.37$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.34 | 1,901 | 55.6%1,057 W · 844 L | +7.7wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4e72…ffb9backed No | 71c | 22.23$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.47 | 2,102 | 56.5%1,188 W · 914 L | +61.4wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xed30…87b1backed No | 65c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7 | 185 | 49.7%92 W · 93 L | +5.0wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbbb7…a11abacked No | 53c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.4 | 1,196 | 57.9%693 W · 503 L | +47.6wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 56c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.84 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x09b4…e56dbacked No | 70c | 18.08$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.51 | 720 | 42.2%304 W · 416 L | +26.5wins | +0.04per pick | 39cpaid | +30.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 21°C on August 19?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 19°C on August 19?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 20°C on August 19?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 22°C on August 19?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.