Crypto Milestones · resolved market
Will Ethena dip to $0.20 in November?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x60d113b044dbf3987130bd3c22d3a35e5412c1453f171bd9e55ec3e997353ce2
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Crypto Milestonesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $24,051
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $24,624
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $24,051 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 47 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Crypto Milestones is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Crypto Milestones | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 0c | 3,644$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.98 | 1,844 | 4.4%81 W · 1,763 L | -13.1wins | -0.01per pick | 5cpaid | -42.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc7b8…2c1fbacked No | 79c | 2,040$1,602 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$437.46 | 66 | 42.4%28 W · 38 L | +4.7wins | +0.07per pick | 35cpaid | -13%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa09a…511fbacked Yes | 16c | 1,073$172 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$171.68 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa11f…dc01backed Yes | 16c | 1,047$168 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$167.52 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb911…a649backed Yes | 25c | 613.65$152 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$152 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | +0.6wins | +0.06per pick | 34cpaid | -25%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb564…0a71backed Yes | 34c | 463.26$157 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$156.56 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -33.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5567…aeedbacked Yes | 18c | 399.7$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.58 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | +0.5wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -33.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0a26…1851backed No | 66c | 368.52$243 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$125.3 | 71 | 63.4%45 W · 26 L | +2.7wins | +0.04per pick | 60cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8230…9074backed Yes | 27c | 367$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.42 | 14 | 35.7%5 W · 9 L | +0.5wins | +0.03per pick | 32cpaid | +20.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0a84…4612backed Yes | 27c | 364$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.5 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | +0.3wins | +0.04per pick | 18cpaid | -15.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1d5a…efc1backed Yes | 56c | 300$168 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$168 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.56per pick | 56cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdb6a…15bdbacked Yes | 20c | 267.2$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.44 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6f01…3887backed Yes | 20c | 263.9$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.78 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0894…d819backed Yes | 21c | 237.25$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.29per pick | 29cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x62ad…525abacked Yes | 22c | 235.9$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.9 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.22per pick | 22cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcb97…1832backed Yes | 22c | 228.3$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.23 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.22per pick | 22cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6e9e…0d54backed No | 78c | 228$178 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.16 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.22per pick | 78cpaid | +28.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5536…147dbacked No | 80c | 225$180 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.20per pick | 80cpaid | +25%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8c21…0ef2backed No | 78c | 225$176 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.5 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.22per pick | 78cpaid | +28.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3fb0…be18backed Yes | 22c | 224.4$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.37 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.22per pick | 22cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5c48…5b4abacked Yes | 22c | 224$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.28 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.22per pick | 22cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x41e9…8f9fbacked Yes | 22c | 223.26$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.26 | 20 | 45%9 W · 11 L | +3.9wins | +0.19per pick | 26cpaid | +56.1%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x23c2…f943backed No | 80c | 220$176 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.20per pick | 80cpaid | +25%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6ff9…6b68backed No | 80c | 220$176 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.20per pick | 80cpaid | +25%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf822…485fbacked No | 78c | 220$172 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.4 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.22per pick | 78cpaid | +28.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x746b…4f02backed Yes | 22c | 220$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.4 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.22per pick | 22cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd0ae…73ddbacked Yes | 29c | 219.64$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.44 | 17 | 0%0 W · 17 L | -0.9wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4034…63b0backed Yes | 22c | 218.2$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.22per pick | 22cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7dae…51cfbacked No | 78c | 215$168 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.3 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.22per pick | 78cpaid | +28.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x56fa…8fc4backed Yes | 24c | 211.49$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.22per pick | 55cpaid | -52.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd206…0638backed No | 78c | 210$164 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.2 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.22per pick | 78cpaid | +28.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5f99…78ccbacked No | 78c | 210$164 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.2 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.22per pick | 78cpaid | +28.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xedd3…4ecabacked No | 78c | 210$164 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.2 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.22per pick | 78cpaid | +28.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x041f…ca56backed No | 80c | 205$164 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.20per pick | 80cpaid | +25%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0a76…5448backed No | 78c | 205$160 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.1 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.22per pick | 78cpaid | +28.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4e8b…1ea1backed No | 76c | 200$152 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48 | 18 | 55.6%10 W · 8 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 56cpaid | +11.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc589…c1e4backed Yes | 22c | 195.9$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.1 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.22per pick | 22cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6b8b…54b7backed Yes | 20c | 194.4$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.88 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x58ff…7e02backed Yes | 10c | 191.66$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 45 | 42.2%19 W · 26 L | +4.1wins | +0.09per pick | 33cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5c44…a5d3backed Yes | 26c | 180.37$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.26per pick | 26cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x70c7…723cbacked Yes | 22c | 176.3$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.79 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.22per pick | 22cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x40d9…d498backed No | 79c | 160.97$127 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.98 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.21per pick | 79cpaid | +26.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0670…54bcbacked Yes | 20c | 144.5$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.9 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa314…5ba7backed No | 76c | 121.57$93 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.85 | 75 | 49.3%37 W · 38 L | -5.5wins | -0.07per pick | 57cpaid | -20.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xad53…ef24backed Yes | 25c | 99.78$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.18 | 127 | 22%28 W · 99 L | -19.5wins | -0.15per pick | 37cpaid | -52.8%equal weight | 36-0.13 edge/pick |
| 0xae00…f7b0backed Yes | 41c | 97.97$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -0.6wins | -0.06per pick | 36cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf12d…fa80backed No | 76c | 36$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.64 | 8 | 87.5%7 W · 1 L | +2.9wins | +0.36per pick | 51cpaid | +58%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Crypto Milestones and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Ethena dip to $0.20 in November?this page
- Will Ethena dip to $0.30 in November?Yes won
- Will Ethena reach $0.50 in November?No won
- Will Ethena reach $0.60 in November?No won
- Will Ethena reach $0.70 in November?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.