Crypto Milestones · resolved market
Will Ethena reach $0.50 in November?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x2c87410b116515fe327d4c2ad878037805009464c2e43622cf00f7a04d605f42
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Crypto Milestonesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $41,127
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $39,157
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $41,127 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 29 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Crypto Milestones is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Crypto Milestones | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 1c | 7,475$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.44 | 1,844 | 4.4%81 W · 1,763 L | -13.1wins | -0.01per pick | 5cpaid | -42.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf828…90c4backed Yes | 16c | 2,489$398 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$398.24 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6a4d…6ad3backed Yes | 16c | 2,461$394 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$393.76 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf13b…7de3backed Yes | 16c | 2,328$372 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$372.48 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.36per pick | 15cpaid | +284.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa155…f843backed Yes | 16c | 2,322$372 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$371.52 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.36per pick | 15cpaid | +284.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa5bf…8763backed Yes | 9c | 2,297$205 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$205.02 | 42 | 31%13 W · 29 L | +4.1wins | +0.10per pick | 21cpaid | +55.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc7b8…2c1fbacked Yes | 15c | 1,289$198 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$198.19 | 66 | 42.4%28 W · 38 L | +4.7wins | +0.07per pick | 35cpaid | -13%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xaba9…3fe4backed Yes | 15c | 1,010$155 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$155.08 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf493…f4f6backed Yes | 15c | 700$107 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$107 | 32 | 9.4%3 W · 29 L | -5.0wins | -0.16per pick | 25cpaid | -76.4%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x5567…aeedbacked Yes | 13c | 244.17$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.17 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | +0.5wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -33.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc555…38e7backed Yes | 29c | 240$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70 | 17 | 23.5%4 W · 13 L | -1.9wins | -0.11per pick | 35cpaid | -51.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa3f9…be68backed Yes | 17c | 222.7$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.86 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -37.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2d76…2fddbacked Yes | 17c | 217.3$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.94 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1e5c…58c3backed Yes | 17c | 203.2$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.54 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xab81…1d37backed Yes | 17c | 191.2$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.5 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -37.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x39ae…0b49backed Yes | 17c | 187.8$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.93 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -37.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2020…6c2abacked Yes | 17c | 173.5$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.5 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9a32…4b93backed Yes | 17c | 170.3$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.95 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -37.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2afd…deb4backed Yes | 8c | 156.11$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.93 | 55 | 14.5%8 W · 47 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 15cpaid | +12%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbafa…8dc3backed Yes | 17c | 154$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.18 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x13c0…911dbacked Yes | 13c | 153.85$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.07per pick | 32cpaid | -63.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcd95…8c17backed Yes | 20c | 135$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27 | 17 | 0%0 W · 17 L | -1.8wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9099…8491backed Yes | 14c | 127.28$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.94 | 10 | 90%9 W · 1 L | +2.3wins | +0.23per pick | 67cpaid | +24.6%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1d0d…9b6ebacked Yes | 10c | 110$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 169 | 3.6%6 W · 163 L | -2.9wins | -0.02per pick | 5cpaid | -57.8%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x261a…fad0backed Yes | 19c | 78.95$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa67d…b429backed Yes | 26c | 76.88$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.99 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.26per pick | 26cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7265…e943backed Yes | 17c | 63$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.74 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | +1.0wins | +0.09per pick | 27cpaid | +96.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5153…fb14backed Yes | 40c | 25$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.17per pick | 50cpaid | -46%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2b26…57e9backed No | 70c | 21.43$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.43 | 32 | 75%24 W · 8 L | +2.5wins | +0.08per pick | 67cpaid | +12.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Crypto Milestones and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Ethena reach $0.50 in November?this page
- Will Ethena dip to $0.20 in November?No won
- Will Ethena dip to $0.30 in November?Yes won
- Will Ethena reach $0.60 in November?No won
- Will Ethena reach $0.70 in November?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.