Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 18°C on April 23?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x60d66a89d5c7b82a90f7bc9b013d0dd0c5d8cec4ad3bcbfa5e049cf670d2d765
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $20,050
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $20,407
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $20,050 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 58 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x0832…8681backed No | 26c | 2,078$550 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$550.46 | 346 | 51.2%177 W · 169 L | -6.6wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4e5c…d892backed No | 23c | 483.3$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$109.56 | 570 | 44.9%256 W · 314 L | +36.5wins | +0.06per pick | 39cpaid | +13%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 21c | 403.34$86 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$86.26 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x85bd…7f75backed Yes | 68c | 276.51$188 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$88.51 | 253 | 62.8%159 W · 94 L | +16.0wins | +0.06per pick | 57cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb06a…52f5backed Yes | 41c | 271.83$112 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$159.85 | 5,832 | 36.7%2,138 W · 3,694 L | +211.1wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5028…91c5backed No | 20c | 226.83$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.98 | 886 | 28.9%256 W · 630 L | -22.6wins | -0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -41.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcb72…f5f9backed Yes | 20c | 214.47$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$172.54 | 304 | 28%85 W · 219 L | +14.9wins | +0.05per pick | 23cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc34a…1a73backed Yes | 40c | 188.69$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$113.59 | 186 | 68.8%128 W · 58 L | +27.3wins | +0.15per pick | 54cpaid | +25.1%equal weight | 64+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x6400…331abacked No | 78c | 182.43$143 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$143.02 | 424 | 69.1%293 W · 131 L | +8.4wins | +0.02per pick | 67cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0b87…9414backed No | 32c | 156.25$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 2,001 | 38.4%768 W · 1,233 L | +1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x354d…eb8fbacked Yes | 35c | 155.77$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$101.41 | 701 | 33.5%235 W · 466 L | +13.4wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xed54…4967backed No | 69c | 140.16$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96.66 | 498 | 54.6%272 W · 226 L | +46.4wins | +0.09per pick | 45cpaid | +20.6%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x3c41…6275backed Yes | 38c | 135.97$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$84.17 | 263 | 27.8%73 W · 190 L | +14.9wins | +0.06per pick | 22cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfc1d…9f01backed No | 16c | 134.38$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.64 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa34d…b57fbacked No | 46c | 101.59$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.61 | 999 | 62.8%627 W · 372 L | +37.5wins | +0.04per pick | 59cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x59d4…b745backed Yes | 47c | 100.01$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.59 | 275 | 40%110 W · 165 L | -10.0wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 34c | 99.95$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.64 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe693…309cbacked No | 55c | 90$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.5 | 22 | 63.6%14 W · 8 L | +1.1wins | +0.05per pick | 58cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1361…f12bbacked Yes | 38c | 72.16$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.56 | 1,924 | 33.8%651 W · 1,273 L | +29.2wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | +1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xafc4…daa1backed Yes | 38c | 71$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.14 | 15 | 26.7%4 W · 11 L | +0.9wins | +0.06per pick | 21cpaid | -34.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 48c | 70.68$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.83 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x09a8…47c1backed No | 43c | 68.48$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.44 | 418 | 45.2%189 W · 229 L | +14.7wins | +0.04per pick | 42cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x747a…f334backed No | 67c | 59.59$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.63 | 36 | 61.1%22 W · 14 L | +4.1wins | +0.11per pick | 50cpaid | +33.8%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x293e…9962backed No | 34c | 58.9$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.01 | 157 | 59.2%93 W · 64 L | +12.6wins | +0.08per pick | 51cpaid | +26.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xae2e…40adbacked No | 60c | 58.53$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.26 | 295 | 20.7%61 W · 234 L | +7.8wins | +0.03per pick | 18cpaid | +25.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1e5e…40fbbacked Yes | 44c | 55.99$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.35 | 335 | 61.5%206 W · 129 L | -22.2wins | -0.07per pick | 68cpaid | -13.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x35af…8e95backed No | 71c | 51.99$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.9 | 77 | 62.3%48 W · 29 L | -2.0wins | -0.03per pick | 65cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4eb9…83acbacked No | 65c | 51$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.97 | 31 | 54.8%17 W · 14 L | +5.3wins | +0.17per pick | 38cpaid | +41.7%equal weight | 61+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x4676…b720backed Yes | 69c | 50.43$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.69 | 981 | 60.6%594 W · 387 L | +9.2wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfba3…4e15backed No | 50c | 50$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 278 | 51.8%144 W · 134 L | +4.3wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa6cf…66c3backed No | 65c | 50$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.5 | 93 | 41.9%39 W · 54 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2986…b3a9backed No | 30c | 49.99$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 2,995 | 31.4%940 W · 2,055 L | +41.6wins | +0.01per pick | 30cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdc20…5606backed Yes | 31c | 48.37$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.38 | 28 | 7.1%2 W · 26 L | -1.0wins | -0.04per pick | 11cpaid | -57.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa11e…1b2dbacked No | 63c | 45$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.35 | 65 | 49.2%32 W · 33 L | -5.1wins | -0.08per pick | 57cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5499…cf6dbacked Yes | 43c | 41.92$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.77 | 250 | 37.6%94 W · 156 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | +36.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfe93…8d0ebacked No | 43c | 40.99$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.73 | 270 | 50.4%136 W · 134 L | -13.3wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2869…527dbacked Yes | 46c | 39.99$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.62 | 937 | 34.9%327 W · 610 L | -203.5wins | -0.22per pick | 57cpaid | -43.2%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xc67f…5115backed Yes | 30c | 37.28$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.12 | 108 | 50%54 W · 54 L | -6.0wins | -0.06per pick | 56cpaid | -16.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa3c2…df3dbacked Yes | 69c | 35.42$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.94 | 1,840 | 37%681 W · 1,159 L | -8.2wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed No | 66c | 33.07$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.83 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x95b2…49aabacked No | 63c | 32.11$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.36 | 41 | 46.3%19 W · 22 L | +1.7wins | +0.04per pick | 42cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf528…7e5bbacked No | 70c | 31$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.76 | 1,313 | 76.1%999 W · 314 L | +20.9wins | +0.02per pick | 74cpaid | +2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x77bd…e48fbacked No | 47c | 30.8$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.56 | 209 | 28.7%60 W · 149 L | -45.3wins | -0.22per pick | 50cpaid | -44.4%equal weight | 28-0.19 edge/pick |
| 0xef2e…10c3backed Yes | 49c | 29.42$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15 | 402 | 42.5%171 W · 231 L | -12.4wins | -0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xeaa4…5c82backed No | 52c | 28.54$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.86 | 72 | 63.9%46 W · 26 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 63cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe422…4d64backed No | 45c | 25$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.25 | 2,065 | 43.6%900 W · 1,165 L | -11.3wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2f46…76f5backed Yes | 48c | 24.23$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.72 | 301 | 31.9%96 W · 205 L | +7.0wins | +0.02per pick | 30cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6de9…a8e5backed No | 45c | 23.33$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.5 | 201 | 61.7%124 W · 77 L | -10.1wins | -0.05per pick | 67cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2753…e28abacked No | 74c | 20.95$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.49 | 420 | 61.2%257 W · 163 L | +19.7wins | +0.05per pick | 57cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7248…90d9backed Yes | 76c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.8 | 58 | 65.5%38 W · 20 L | +2.9wins | +0.05per pick | 60cpaid | +8.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6d5b…4f5abacked No | 66c | 19.99$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.24 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.9wins | -0.37per pick | 57cpaid | -68.9%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x50b1…0793backed No | 78c | 19.78$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.42 | 436 | 63.5%277 W · 159 L | +5.2wins | +0.01per pick | 62cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeb17…0cd7backed Yes | 79c | 19.57$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.19 | 30 | 50%15 W · 15 L | -2.9wins | -0.10per pick | 60cpaid | -19.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9ce7…5e55backed Yes | 72c | 17.05$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.82 | 12 | 83.3%10 W · 2 L | +2.6wins | +0.21per pick | 62cpaid | +30.4%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x98d9…2c8cbacked No | 78c | 15.26$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.97 | 576 | 59%340 W · 236 L | -17.2wins | -0.03per pick | 62cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x28f8…b5f7backed No | 77c | 14.79$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.43 | 29 | 65.5%19 W · 10 L | +2.2wins | +0.08per pick | 58cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3164…3c65backed No | 74c | 14.5$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.66 | 444 | 65.3%290 W · 154 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc4dd…8744backed No | 79c | 14.26$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.27 | 13 | 61.5%8 W · 5 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 61cpaid | +9.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Busan be 18°C on April 23?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Busan be 16°C on April 23?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Busan be 17°C on April 23?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Busan be 19°C on April 23?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Busan be 20°C on April 23?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Busan be 21°C on April 23?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Busan be 22°C on April 23?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.