Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 66-67°F on April 10?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x6123f6dda9ee4a906c87940a2e3259eacf197b50417b36d80eec0b586c1ff581
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $13,294
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $15,514
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $13,294 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 42 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x100a…c6cebacked No | 1c | 1,553$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.06 | 255 | 4.3%11 W · 244 L | +8.3wins | +0.03per pick | 1cpaid | +221.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfedf…ee2abacked Yes | 69c | 332.7$230 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$102.46 | 56 | 33.9%19 W · 37 L | -1.7wins | -0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 19c | 284.77$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$230.77 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf8dc…f31fbacked Yes | 46c | 273.18$127 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$146.32 | 4,525 | 26.7%1,206 W · 3,319 L | +62.2wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 22c | 248.68$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.95 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xeab6…d4c6backed No | 32c | 239.94$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.74 | 841 | 24%202 W · 639 L | -35.9wins | -0.04per pick | 28cpaid | -42.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x88e2…d474backed No | 7c | 233.56$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.16 | 166 | 39.2%65 W · 101 L | -6.7wins | -0.04per pick | 43cpaid | -31.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd80a…c714backed Yes | 18c | 231.7$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$189.01 | 1,977 | 18.8%371 W · 1,606 L | +8.0wins | 0.00per pick | 18cpaid | -18.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdec0…3baabacked Yes | 74c | 201.57$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.98 | 22 | 54.5%12 W · 10 L | +1.2wins | +0.06per pick | 49cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc17e…906abacked Yes | 48c | 195.25$93 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$102.31 | 540 | 43.9%237 W · 303 L | +11.2wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0b87…9414backed No | 30c | 166.66$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 2,001 | 38.4%768 W · 1,233 L | +1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed Yes | 19c | 103.85$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$84.5 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6d77…a694backed Yes | 19c | 99.87$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80.59 | 1,160 | 57.3%665 W · 495 L | +20.1wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb06a…52f5backed Yes | 69c | 97.37$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.04 | 5,832 | 36.7%2,138 W · 3,694 L | +211.1wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf7a4…f148backed Yes | 76c | 88.79$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.09 | 1,429 | 34.5%493 W · 936 L | -6.8wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd5ed…8b4bbacked Yes | 21c | 87.08$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.66 | 112 | 23.2%26 W · 86 L | -2.4wins | -0.02per pick | 25cpaid | -18.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 56c | 65.57$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.75 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1361…f12bbacked Yes | 49c | 62.01$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.87 | 1,924 | 33.8%651 W · 1,273 L | +29.2wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | +1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7961…eaa8backed Yes | 58c | 59.28$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.18 | 69 | 73.9%51 W · 18 L | +7.9wins | +0.11per pick | 62cpaid | +16.2%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x7ffa…d06bbacked Yes | 70c | 52.1$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.63 | 244 | 42.6%104 W · 140 L | +7.8wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa3c2…df3dbacked No | 56c | 51.27$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.81 | 1,840 | 37%681 W · 1,159 L | -8.2wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa6cf…66c3backed Yes | 38c | 50$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31 | 93 | 41.9%39 W · 54 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2986…b3a9backed No | 30c | 50$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 2,995 | 31.4%940 W · 2,055 L | +41.6wins | +0.01per pick | 30cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe689…159fbacked Yes | 42c | 49.93$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.96 | 203 | 42.9%87 W · 116 L | +20.8wins | +0.10per pick | 33cpaid | +55.4%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x5245…00c4backed Yes | 45c | 49.74$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.46 | 296 | 40.5%120 W · 176 L | -7.7wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbf2e…c770backed Yes | 66c | 49.29$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.76 | 395 | 41.3%163 W · 232 L | +3.6wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 49c | 48.41$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.59 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x9b05…d7a7backed Yes | 28c | 47$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.62 | 33 | 66.7%22 W · 11 L | +2.3wins | +0.07per pick | 60cpaid | +8.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc1be…6471backed Yes | 42c | 45.33$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.49 | 88 | 61.4%54 W · 34 L | +4.6wins | +0.05per pick | 56cpaid | +9.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x74ea…b265backed Yes | 35c | 40.7$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.46 | 211 | 42.7%90 W · 121 L | +8.9wins | +0.04per pick | 38cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xba84…3d6fbacked No | 72c | 40.51$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.16 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.5wins | -0.75per pick | 75cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0461…fcbcbacked No | 53c | 40$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.2 | 724 | 66.2%479 W · 245 L | +33.6wins | +0.05per pick | 62cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xea5e…a678backed Yes | 69c | 39.73$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.32 | 1,218 | 42%512 W · 706 L | +31.7wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x66a1…3de8backed Yes | 40c | 39.59$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.76 | 685 | 21.5%147 W · 538 L | +12.8wins | +0.02per pick | 20cpaid | +14.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3b4c…17cebacked Yes | 74c | 35.48$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.06 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -27.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4db0…bcd3backed No | 61c | 33.63$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.56 | 19 | 31.6%6 W · 13 L | -3.3wins | -0.18per pick | 49cpaid | -50.8%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x306d…7a38backed Yes | 32c | 31.77$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.6 | 667 | 35.4%236 W · 431 L | +14.2wins | +0.02per pick | 33cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x204b…75f3backed Yes | 69c | 28.08$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.71 | 221 | 71%157 W · 64 L | +14.5wins | +0.07per pick | 65cpaid | +12.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe07e…0e7ebacked Yes | 43c | 27.03$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.46 | 334 | 50.6%169 W · 165 L | +0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6c9b…994dbacked Yes | 65c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7 | 166 | 34.9%58 W · 108 L | -6.1wins | -0.04per pick | 39cpaid | -41.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1685…97abbacked No | 64c | 18.6$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.91 | 167 | 40.1%67 W · 100 L | +1.7wins | +0.01per pick | 39cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcb81…7b82backed No | 77c | 16.56$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.75 | 130 | 53.1%69 W · 61 L | -7.2wins | -0.06per pick | 59cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 66-67°F on April 10?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be 74°F or higher on April 10?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 62-63°F on April 10?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 64-65°F on April 10?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 68-69°F on April 10?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 70-71°F on April 10?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 72-73°F on April 10?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.