San Francisco Dons vs. Oregon State Beavers

https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x6184fc85ea1d9f41c9330a662c4315262abad30967e0326ffc36b9460ce0923e

Rebuilt 1 hour ago.

Winning outcome: Oregon State Beaversof San Francisco Dons, Oregon State Beavers
Resolved: Dec 31, 2025, ESTUS/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in: Ncaa Basketballevery record on this page is that Category’s

Volume Polymarket published: $41,189
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed: $43,745

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $41,189 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 54 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Ncaa Basketball is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this market					This wallet’s whole record in Ncaa Basketball
Wallet	Entry	Position	Result	P/L held	Qualified picks	Win rate	vs expected	Realizable edge	Avg entry	ROI per pick	Tail Score
0xde6d…0926backed San Francisco Dons	25c	7,801$1,918 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,918.02	38	34.2%13 W · 25 L	-1.6wins	-0.04per pick	38cpaid	-38.3%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0x507e…beaebacked Oregon State Beavers	53c	2,705$1,438 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$1,266.54	5,946	49.3%2,932 W · 3,014 L	+163.0wins	+0.03per pick	47cpaid	-0.9%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x1d94…9100backed Oregon State Beavers	32c	2,256$717 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$1,538.83	2,048	32.7%670 W · 1,378 L	-16.2wins	-0.01per pick	34cpaid	-9.1%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe401…7b88backed San Francisco Dons	60c	2,151$1,288 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,287.99	3,905	58.8%2,298 W · 1,607 L	+165.3wins	+0.04per pick	55cpaid	+4.5%equal weight	55+0.04 edge/pick
0x0f8e…3082backed Oregon State Beavers	62c	1,555$972 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$583.62	3,684	42.8%1,576 W · 2,108 L	+32.6wins	+0.01per pick	42cpaid	-5.7%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb7b3…9573backed Oregon State Beavers	37c	1,000$370 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$630.24	64	43.8%28 W · 36 L	-4.5wins	-0.07per pick	51cpaid	-11.4%equal weight	44-0.05 edge/pick
0xb13d…2e90backed Oregon State Beavers	45c	961.11$437 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$523.9	556	57.4%319 W · 237 L	+20.3wins	+0.04per pick	54cpaid	+3.2%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0x204f…5e14backed San Francisco Dons	45c	923.54$419 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$418.93	5,553	47.4%2,634 W · 2,919 L	+26.3wins	0.00per pick	47cpaid	-3.6%equal weight	510.00 edge/pick
0x2005…75eabacked Oregon State Beavers	47c	897.55$424 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$473.46	1,910	49.6%947 W · 963 L	+30.4wins	+0.02per pick	48cpaid	+0.8%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xee61…debfbacked San Francisco Dons	63c	799.52$504 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$503.7	12,422	49.8%6,191 W · 6,231 L	+118.8wins	+0.01per pick	49cpaid	+1.5%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x004e…90f8backed San Francisco Dons	21c	655.03$135 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$135	192	37%71 W · 121 L	+0.1wins	0.00per pick	37cpaid	-7.8%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xe9f5…3e7abacked San Francisco Dons	40c	467$187 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$186.8	327	51.7%169 W · 158 L	+12.7wins	+0.04per pick	48cpaid	+14.9%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0x3a8e…b505backed San Francisco Dons	58c	460.93$268 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$268.09	480	51%245 W · 235 L	-6.8wins	-0.01per pick	52cpaid	-10.3%equal weight	48-0.01 edge/pick
0x59b6…307fbacked San Francisco Dons	71c	422.54$300 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$300	453	51.4%233 W · 220 L	-16.8wins	-0.04per pick	55cpaid	-7%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0xd903…bf9dbacked Oregon State Beavers	76c	395.13$300 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$95.11	231	58.9%136 W · 95 L	+23.5wins	+0.10per pick	49cpaid	+10.7%equal weight	60+0.09 edge/pick
0x2652…2a1dbacked Oregon State Beavers	49c	359.09$176 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$182.83	4,848	52.2%2,532 W · 2,316 L	+139.2wins	+0.03per pick	49cpaid	+1%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x63a9…9a69backed Oregon State Beavers	42c	337$141 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$195.97	13	38.5%5 W · 8 L	-0.1wins	0.00per pick	39cpaid	-19.2%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xa00f…8e56backed San Francisco Dons	58c	317$183 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$183.46	735	49.1%361 W · 374 L	-14.6wins	-0.02per pick	51cpaid	-13.3%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x00c5…0622backed San Francisco Dons	36c	278.61$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$100	1	0%0 W · 1 L	-0.4wins	-0.36per pick	36cpaid	-100%equal weight	48-0.01 edge/pick
0x7e80…f17abacked San Francisco Dons	5c	269.53$13 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$13.48	160	8.1%13 W · 147 L	-3.6wins	-0.02per pick	10cpaid	-42.2%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd218…b5c9backed San Francisco Dons	67c	224.49$149 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$149.31	2,555	41.6%1,062 W · 1,493 L	-15.9wins	-0.01per pick	42cpaid	-20.2%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe60a…6a47backed San Francisco Dons	66c	219.23$144 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$144.16	2,579	47.3%1,221 W · 1,358 L	-42.7wins	-0.02per pick	49cpaid	-6.2%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf702…7cc8backed Oregon State Beavers	68c	207.13$140 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$67.13	175	44%77 W · 98 L	-13.5wins	-0.08per pick	52cpaid	-25.4%equal weight	42-0.07 edge/pick
0x65ea…223fbacked Oregon State Beavers	35c	164$57 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$106.6	82	52.4%43 W · 39 L	+4.8wins	+0.06per pick	47cpaid	+14.4%equal weight	55+0.04 edge/pick
0xf4dc…d394backed Oregon State Beavers	36c	138.99$50 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$88.95	73	53.4%39 W · 34 L	+3.3wins	+0.05per pick	49cpaid	+9.6%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0x70ac…0c7dbacked San Francisco Dons	19c	126.02$24 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$23.85	12	16.7%2 W · 10 L	-1.4wins	-0.12per pick	28cpaid	-51%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0xec6c…23c7backed Oregon State Beavers	43c	124.16$53 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$70.77	383	43.6%167 W · 216 L	-3.7wins	-0.01per pick	45cpaid	-13.2%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x89f3…dfffbacked San Francisco Dons	54c	107.26$58 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$58.41	1,173	25.2%296 W · 877 L	-43.0wins	-0.04per pick	29cpaid	-21.1%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0x10f7…26f0backed Oregon State Beavers	35c	106$37 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$68.9	65	46.2%30 W · 35 L	-2.9wins	-0.04per pick	51cpaid	-10%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0x50fc…ba9abacked Oregon State Beavers	35c	99$35 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$64.35	44	45.5%20 W · 24 L	-1.8wins	-0.04per pick	50cpaid	-1.4%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x8a23…97a7backed Oregon State Beavers	35c	86.54$30 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$56.25	215	35.3%76 W · 139 L	-3.8wins	-0.02per pick	37cpaid	-9.2%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x15ca…0a0dbacked Oregon State Beavers	62c	79.83$49 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$30.34	52	53.8%28 W · 24 L	+2.8wins	+0.05per pick	48cpaid	+0.1%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0x49ec…c4e5backed Oregon State Beavers	36c	77$28 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$49.28	36	36.1%13 W · 23 L	-5.2wins	-0.14per pick	51cpaid	-29.6%equal weight	41-0.09 edge/pick
0x20ae…f107backed San Francisco Dons	56c	71.65$40 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$40	423	27.2%115 W · 308 L	-10.9wins	-0.03per pick	30cpaid	-7.5%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0x97c3…b479backed San Francisco Dons	60c	68.2$41 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$41	128	40.6%52 W · 76 L	-11.4wins	-0.09per pick	50cpaid	-23.3%equal weight	42-0.07 edge/pick
0x051b…09d4backed Oregon State Beavers	45c	62.3$28 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$34.3	200	51.5%103 W · 97 L	-0.4wins	0.00per pick	52cpaid	-2.1%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x6814…a9e7backed San Francisco Dons	64c	51.01$33 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$32.79	3,380	49.5%1,673 W · 1,707 L	+30.4wins	+0.01per pick	49cpaid	-9.4%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb5a9…f72ebacked San Francisco Dons	65c	50$33 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$32.5	29	55.2%16 W · 13 L	+0.4wins	+0.01per pick	54cpaid	+0.9%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9b89…99e2backed San Francisco Dons	48c	48.22$23 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$23.27	213	42.3%90 W · 123 L	-6.8wins	-0.03per pick	45cpaid	-3.1%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x8f6c…ac71backed San Francisco Dons	65c	46$30 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$29.9	38	55.3%21 W · 17 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	55cpaid	-0.3%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x42bb…2138backed San Francisco Dons	65c	46$30 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$29.9	21	57.1%12 W · 9 L	+1.4wins	+0.07per pick	51cpaid	+17.2%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x8d84…6df0backed San Francisco Dons	66c	45.45$30 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$30	536	46.5%249 W · 287 L	-24.3wins	-0.05per pick	51cpaid	-8.8%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0x6b38…4d61backed Oregon State Beavers	42c	41.61$17 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$24.19	150	37.3%56 W · 94 L	-2.4wins	-0.02per pick	39cpaid	-4.2%equal weight	48-0.01 edge/pick
0xc1df…4404backed San Francisco Dons	45c	41.15$19 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$18.66	26	46.2%12 W · 14 L	-1.5wins	-0.06per pick	52cpaid	-19.7%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x3fb9…1591backed San Francisco Dons	48c	37.73$18 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$18.15	31	35.5%11 W · 20 L	-5.6wins	-0.18per pick	53cpaid	-36.3%equal weight	39-0.10 edge/pick
0xc9db…ab38backed San Francisco Dons	65c	35$23 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$22.75	27	51.9%14 W · 13 L	-0.7wins	-0.02per pick	54cpaid	-4.2%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7bf2…6640backed San Francisco Dons	65c	35$23 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$22.75	26	38.5%10 W · 16 L	-3.7wins	-0.14per pick	53cpaid	-26.9%equal weight	42-0.07 edge/pick
0xca65…6746backed San Francisco Dons	65c	34$22 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$22.1	28	57.1%16 W · 12 L	+0.6wins	+0.02per pick	55cpaid	+6.7%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x83d7…f2d1backed San Francisco Dons	64c	34$22 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$21.76	34	64.7%22 W · 12 L	+2.5wins	+0.07per pick	57cpaid	+14.6%equal weight	55+0.04 edge/pick
0xfd17…77fdbacked San Francisco Dons	65c	28$18 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$18.2	31	58.1%18 W · 13 L	+1.4wins	+0.05per pick	53cpaid	+9%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xdc55…9f7cbacked San Francisco Dons	65c	28$18 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$18.2	19	57.9%11 W · 8 L	+0.5wins	+0.03per pick	55cpaid	+3.7%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x063c…d642backed San Francisco Dons	65c	23$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$14.95	29	65.5%19 W · 10 L	+3.4wins	+0.12per pick	54cpaid	+21.5%equal weight	57+0.06 edge/pick
0x8217…4936backed Oregon State Beavers	56c	18.18$10 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$8	190	55.3%105 W · 85 L	+1.3wins	+0.01per pick	55cpaid	-4.4%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd84f…0475backed San Francisco Dons	64c	18$12 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$11.52	42	47.6%20 W · 22 L	-3.2wins	-0.08per pick	55cpaid	-11.1%equal weight	45-0.05 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Ncaa Basketball and say nothing about this market.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

The market traded at least $500.
The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.

San Francisco Dons vs. Oregon State Beavers

What this market resolved to

Who was on this market