Premier League · resolved market
Will AFC Wimbledon vs. Newport County AFC end in a draw?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x618dfef8dcdb29cd56fb5a00714b8567d4427283f27836263721bad73cacdf03
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Premier Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $11,079
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $13,823
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $11,079 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 26 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Premier League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Premier League | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xad46…e6a6backed No | 1c | 3,000$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed No | 64c | 2,615$1,685 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,684.59 | 755 | 42.3%319 W · 436 L | +1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Yes | 35c | 2,144$755 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,389.15 | 6,047 | 45.9%2,776 W · 3,271 L | -21.5wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa9f5…937fbacked No | 5c | 379$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.24 | 412 | 43.4%179 W · 233 L | -1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2a69…d2f7backed No | 63c | 352.6$224 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$223.87 | 953 | 32.5%310 W · 643 L | -8.3wins | -0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -11.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x71f5…4ccebacked No | 11c | 250$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.5 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +1.6wins | +0.23per pick | 34cpaid | +37.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed No | 17c | 236.56$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.35 | 772 | 36.4%281 W · 491 L | -9.8wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -23.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe911…3d4ebacked No | 9c | 233$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.92 | 964 | 45.4%438 W · 526 L | +12.2wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xda77…683fbacked No | 8c | 184.68$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.55 | 200 | 41%82 W · 118 L | -3.6wins | -0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -13%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x976a…e8ecbacked No | 12c | 121.75$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.41 | 115 | 55.7%64 W · 51 L | +13.5wins | +0.12per pick | 44cpaid | +21.1%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x2d67…3667backed Yes | 38c | 106.24$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.87 | 84 | 64.3%54 W · 30 L | +4.2wins | +0.05per pick | 59cpaid | +8.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x50e5…e39fbacked Yes | 37c | 90$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.7 | 284 | 43.7%124 W · 160 L | -10.2wins | -0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7d0c…a3b7backed No | 76c | 76.92$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.46 | 1,074 | 45%483 W · 591 L | -20.4wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb4bf…60f8backed Yes | 38c | 73.01$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.27 | 96 | 63.5%61 W · 35 L | +7.5wins | +0.08per pick | 56cpaid | +11.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0b0a…e482backed No | 54c | 72.5$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.15 | 19 | 47.4%9 W · 10 L | -2.3wins | -0.12per pick | 59cpaid | -19.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe84f…b777backed Yes | 38c | 70.82$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.91 | 84 | 65.5%55 W · 29 L | +6.4wins | +0.08per pick | 58cpaid | +10.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x460c…b5b5backed Yes | 35c | 63.54$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.2 | 63 | 63.5%40 W · 23 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 62cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc291…5d74backed Yes | 46c | 62.46$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.73 | 1,615 | 34.9%564 W · 1,051 L | -28.7wins | -0.02per pick | 37cpaid | -13.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x67af…61eebacked Yes | 33c | 44$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.48 | 143 | 49.7%71 W · 72 L | +1.7wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2e72…c55fbacked Yes | 24c | 43.75$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.25 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | +36.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x22da…2866backed Yes | 38c | 28.16$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.46 | 273 | 56.4%154 W · 119 L | +2.1wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb8c6…7b39backed Yes | 38c | 27.81$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.24 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | -0.7wins | -0.05per pick | 51cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x70b1…73b2backed Yes | 38c | 26.49$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.42 | 114 | 60.5%69 W · 45 L | +7.4wins | +0.06per pick | 54cpaid | +15.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2c46…dac9backed No | 62c | 26.41$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.46 | 726 | 58.7%426 W · 300 L | +48.0wins | +0.07per pick | 52cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x49f0…285fbacked No | 63c | 19.08$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.02 | 19 | 63.2%12 W · 7 L | +1.2wins | +0.06per pick | 57cpaid | +25%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x200f…7a96backed No | 76c | 18$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.68 | 1,589 | 53.3%847 W · 742 L | +39.2wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Premier League and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will AFC Wimbledon vs. Newport County AFC end in a draw?this page
- Will AFC Wimbledon win on 2026-08-08?No won
- Will Newport County AFC win on 2026-08-08?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.