Europa Conference League · resolved market
Hibernian FC vs. FC Malisheva: O/U 3.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x61a33b599de097dae44384243a853c5e66b7b2da022861746f9abd0aaa127cd2
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Europa Conference Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $4,420
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $4,425
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $4,420 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 16 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Europa Conference League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Europa Conference League | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x0346…52a5backed Under | 30c | 1,387$411 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$411.34 | 2,473 | 33.9%839 W · 1,634 L | -95.0wins | -0.04per pick | 38cpaid | -25%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4f29…7a7ebacked Over | 78c | 918.52$719 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$199.71 | 558 | 45%251 W · 307 L | +2.4wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 18c | 710.34$128 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$128.39 | 3,726 | 47%1,750 W · 1,976 L | +20.0wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2a69…d2f7backed Over | 44c | 628.5$276 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$352.97 | 2,333 | 41.7%972 W · 1,361 L | +25.5wins | +0.01per pick | 41cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Under | 55c | 367$203 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$202.9 | 814 | 40.5%330 W · 484 L | -21.9wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Over | 43c | 300$129 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$171 | 1,039 | 50%520 W · 519 L | +26.5wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe9ef…b630backed Under | 12c | 198.3$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.8 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | +1.7wins | +0.16per pick | 21cpaid | +59.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x882c…5d07backed Under | 16c | 118.83$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.43 | 351 | 46.2%162 W · 189 L | -11.2wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5981…3934backed Over | 44c | 109.95$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.57 | 83 | 33.7%28 W · 55 L | -6.8wins | -0.08per pick | 42cpaid | -22.4%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1ba2…d212backed Under | 54c | 92.65$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.13 | 324 | 36.4%118 W · 206 L | -20.4wins | -0.06per pick | 43cpaid | -23.5%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x200f…7a96backed Under | 55c | 71$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.05 | 1,573 | 55.7%876 W · 697 L | +25.2wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x67af…61eebacked Under | 55c | 59.95$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.07 | 275 | 54.9%151 W · 124 L | +7.4wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfb0c…8c72backed Under | 57c | 56.96$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.67 | 655 | 49.8%326 W · 329 L | +13.3wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfcc7…4d38backed Over | 43c | 50.28$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.66 | 134 | 50%67 W · 67 L | +4.6wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2b35…0bfebacked Over | 43c | 47.27$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.94 | 778 | 55%428 W · 350 L | +23.6wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa032…2090backed Under | 57c | 29.77$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.92 | 184 | 49.5%91 W · 93 L | +4.0wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Europa Conference League and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 13 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Hibernian FC vs. FC Malisheva: O/U 3.5this page
- Hibernian FC vs. FC Malisheva: 1st Half O/U 1.5Over won
- Hibernian FC vs. FC Malisheva: Both Teams to ScoreYes won
- Hibernian FC vs. FC Malisheva: Hibernian FC O/U 2.5Over won
- Hibernian FC vs. FC Malisheva: O/U 0.5Over won
- Hibernian FC vs. FC Malisheva: O/U 1.5Over won
- Hibernian FC vs. FC Malisheva: O/U 2.5Over won
- Hibernian FC vs. FC Malisheva: O/U 4.5Over won
- Hibernian FC vs. FC Malisheva: O/U 5.5Under won
- Hibernian FC vs. FC Malisheva: Team to AdvanceHibernian FC won
- Spread: FC Malisheva (-2.5)Hibernian FC won
- Spread: Hibernian FC (-1.5)Hibernian FC won
- Spread: Hibernian FC (-2.5)Hibernian FC won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.