Europa Conference League · resolved market
Hibernian FC vs. FC Malisheva: O/U 4.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x4e2e24e5b9acc4571449a22fc00631ac627f0b777fb01fbd2e67ee8695753a71
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Europa Conference Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $14,994
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $19,490
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $14,994 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 33 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Europa Conference League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Europa Conference League | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x4f29…7a7ebacked Over | 53c | 2,519$1,343 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,175.42 | 558 | 45%251 W · 307 L | +2.4wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4b29…e4b2backed Over | 73c | 1,493$1,090 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$403.17 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | -1.4wins | -0.15per pick | 60cpaid | -32.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe911…3d4ebacked Under | 1c | 1,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 783 | 44.8%351 W · 432 L | +13.5wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x37c1…8de1backed Under | 44c | 802.9$350 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$350 | 155 | 44.5%69 W · 86 L | +6.1wins | +0.04per pick | 41cpaid | +10.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 48c | 787.35$376 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$375.88 | 3,726 | 47%1,750 W · 1,976 L | +20.0wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x882c…5d07backed Under | 49c | 710.65$348 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$348.07 | 351 | 46.2%162 W · 189 L | -11.2wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffd…7821backed Under | 42c | 643.34$270 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$270.2 | 85 | 50.6%43 W · 42 L | -2.7wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Under | 46c | 446.98$205 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$204.58 | 2,990 | 42.5%1,270 W · 1,720 L | +9.4wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2aa1…1ea8backed Under | 63c | 391.98$247 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$246.95 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | -0.7wins | -0.07per pick | 61cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0346…52a5backed Under | 46c | 210.76$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96.47 | 2,473 | 33.9%839 W · 1,634 L | -95.0wins | -0.04per pick | 38cpaid | -25%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1ba2…d212backed Under | 73c | 194.53$142 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$142.01 | 324 | 36.4%118 W · 206 L | -20.4wins | -0.06per pick | 43cpaid | -23.5%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Under | 45c | 186.85$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$83.95 | 1,604 | 38.9%624 W · 980 L | -17.7wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -15.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5323…326abacked Under | 54c | 185.19$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | -0.4wins | -0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -13.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaf5d…df19backed Under | 52c | 144.44$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -1.4wins | -0.20per pick | 48cpaid | -41.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x52d9…fb1abacked Under | 74c | 134.5$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.53 | 1,033 | 46.1%476 W · 557 L | -3.1wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Under | 9c | 128$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.36 | 814 | 40.5%330 W · 484 L | -21.9wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x629d…756cbacked Under | 44c | 122.9$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.59 | 239 | 50.2%120 W · 119 L | -1.7wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x775d…6bebbacked Under | 44c | 117.63$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.71 | 278 | 46.4%129 W · 149 L | -12.6wins | -0.05per pick | 51cpaid | -19%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfdf4…40fabacked Over | 57c | 100$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43 | 52 | 55.8%29 W · 23 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0464…67dabacked Under | 47c | 86.37$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.59 | 363 | 56.5%205 W · 158 L | +17.1wins | +0.05per pick | 52cpaid | +16.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe8e0…7eecbacked Under | 41c | 75$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.5 | 198 | 48%95 W · 103 L | -3.9wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -16.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x200f…7a96backed Over | 25c | 73$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.75 | 1,573 | 55.7%876 W · 697 L | +25.2wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc4fe…601fbacked Over | 48c | 64.95$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.77 | 370 | 46.5%172 W · 198 L | +10.8wins | +0.03per pick | 44cpaid | 0%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfcc7…4d38backed Under | 74c | 53.53$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.61 | 134 | 50%67 W · 67 L | +4.6wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdb83…1e50backed Under | 45c | 44.96$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.23 | 568 | 49.6%282 W · 286 L | +5.5wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9287…0098backed Over | 25c | 41$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.75 | 33 | 39.4%13 W · 20 L | +3.7wins | +0.11per pick | 28cpaid | +44.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x55a3…fd93backed Over | 25c | 40$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | +1.5wins | +0.10per pick | 32cpaid | +25.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x67af…61eebacked Over | 48c | 33$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.16 | 275 | 54.9%151 W · 124 L | +7.4wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2c46…dac9backed Over | 42c | 31.83$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.39 | 377 | 50.9%192 W · 185 L | +5.0wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x84d4…77a9backed Under | 49c | 31.27$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.33 | 296 | 54.1%160 W · 136 L | +8.4wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2d67…3667backed Under | 49c | 29.69$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.55 | 318 | 56%178 W · 140 L | +6.3wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0009…5497backed Under | 48c | 21.41$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.36 | 54 | 44.4%24 W · 30 L | -1.9wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfb0c…8c72backed Under | 74c | 16.61$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.29 | 655 | 49.8%326 W · 329 L | +13.3wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Europa Conference League and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 13 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Hibernian FC vs. FC Malisheva: O/U 4.5this page
- Hibernian FC vs. FC Malisheva: 1st Half O/U 1.5Over won
- Hibernian FC vs. FC Malisheva: Both Teams to ScoreYes won
- Hibernian FC vs. FC Malisheva: Hibernian FC O/U 2.5Over won
- Hibernian FC vs. FC Malisheva: O/U 0.5Over won
- Hibernian FC vs. FC Malisheva: O/U 1.5Over won
- Hibernian FC vs. FC Malisheva: O/U 2.5Over won
- Hibernian FC vs. FC Malisheva: O/U 3.5Over won
- Hibernian FC vs. FC Malisheva: O/U 5.5Under won
- Hibernian FC vs. FC Malisheva: Team to AdvanceHibernian FC won
- Spread: FC Malisheva (-2.5)Hibernian FC won
- Spread: Hibernian FC (-1.5)Hibernian FC won
- Spread: Hibernian FC (-2.5)Hibernian FC won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.