Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 86-87°F on April 16?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x61b9c3a39bfacb63b95e6c93485b1c2d5a37afcc519e7ad824a151a864c5632b
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $7,482
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $7,906
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $7,482 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 47 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x331b…193fbacked No | 75c | 350.34$261 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$89.29 | 900 | 40.7%366 W · 534 L | +112.3wins | +0.12per pick | 28cpaid | +63.8%equal weight | 63+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0xcbbc…b5d0backed Yes | 25c | 300$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75 | 4,496 | 19.6%882 W · 3,614 L | +49.5wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Yes | 18c | 270.44$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.96 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 37c | 269.43$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.58 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0a19…3c95backed Yes | 37c | 241.19$89 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$89.48 | 428 | 57%244 W · 184 L | +8.9wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb06a…52f5backed Yes | 27c | 189.4$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.3 | 5,832 | 36.7%2,138 W · 3,694 L | +211.1wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x09b0…fb66backed No | 68c | 134.19$91 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.94 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 34cpaid | -43.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8c67…bb39backed Yes | 52c | 131.11$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.54 | 21 | 38.1%8 W · 13 L | -0.8wins | -0.04per pick | 42cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc239…6459backed No | 59c | 127.99$76 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.48 | 42 | 31%13 W · 29 L | -3.8wins | -0.09per pick | 40cpaid | -30.1%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 60c | 114.09$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.11 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd251…4d37backed No | 50c | 112.56$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.1 | 1,697 | 42.4%720 W · 977 L | +56.9wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | +11.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x74ea…b265backed Yes | 39c | 99.94$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.6 | 211 | 42.7%90 W · 121 L | +8.9wins | +0.04per pick | 38cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x85c0…e01dbacked Yes | 13c | 98.02$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.68 | 1,032 | 24.3%251 W · 781 L | +40.9wins | +0.04per pick | 20cpaid | +14.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf8dc…f31fbacked Yes | 34c | 82.11$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.19 | 4,525 | 26.7%1,206 W · 3,319 L | +62.2wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed No | 60c | 81.99$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.7 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1361…f12bbacked Yes | 37c | 80$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.6 | 1,924 | 33.8%651 W · 1,273 L | +29.2wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | +1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfa28…c37ebacked Yes | 38c | 74.89$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.51 | 3,939 | 35.3%1,392 W · 2,547 L | +35.4wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 43c | 73.84$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.74 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xce5d…5b70backed Yes | 38c | 71.39$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.41 | 86 | 32.6%28 W · 58 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 32cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8aa2…5a0bbacked Yes | 41c | 62.92$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.63 | 1,420 | 58.7%833 W · 587 L | +69.1wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xaa84…e985backed Yes | 41c | 57.38$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.52 | 407 | 39.3%160 W · 247 L | -11.2wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9ede…ad2cbacked Yes | 27c | 51.88$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.04 | 82 | 29.3%24 W · 58 L | -1.4wins | -0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbb3a…8daabacked No | 54c | 51.62$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.75 | 57 | 56.1%32 W · 25 L | -2.1wins | -0.04per pick | 60cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2a3c…1b6fbacked Yes | 44c | 49.15$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.63 | 92 | 35.9%33 W · 59 L | +2.2wins | +0.02per pick | 34cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc7fd…59aebacked Yes | 33c | 49.13$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 65 | 24.6%16 W · 49 L | -5.0wins | -0.08per pick | 32cpaid | -41.3%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xcd2d…d7f8backed Yes | 46c | 48.83$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.46 | 17 | 58.8%10 W · 7 L | +1.0wins | +0.06per pick | 53cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7b4f…8fbcbacked No | 51c | 47.55$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.3 | 214 | 40.2%86 W · 128 L | +12.6wins | +0.06per pick | 34cpaid | +18.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x906f…371abacked No | 58c | 46.49$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.31 | 2,495 | 69.9%1,744 W · 751 L | +80.3wins | +0.03per pick | 67cpaid | +5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x890d…7522backed No | 61c | 38.4$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.13 | 106 | 52.8%56 W · 50 L | +2.4wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe7fb…5fb7backed No | 65c | 34.94$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.37 | 69 | 36.2%25 W · 44 L | -2.2wins | -0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -23.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7511…582ebacked No | 75c | 34.33$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.58 | 29 | 51.7%15 W · 14 L | +0.7wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +17.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8f34…2f50backed No | 54c | 30$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.8 | 4,120 | 60.8%2,506 W · 1,614 L | +32.7wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x66a1…3de8backed Yes | 38c | 29$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.9 | 685 | 21.5%147 W · 538 L | +12.8wins | +0.02per pick | 20cpaid | +14.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfbdf…04ccbacked Yes | 50c | 27.7$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.85 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.27per pick | 61cpaid | -51%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc24f…81d3backed No | 64c | 26.51$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.57 | 985 | 71%699 W · 286 L | +5.7wins | +0.01per pick | 70cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2869…527dbacked Yes | 39c | 26.44$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.22 | 937 | 34.9%327 W · 610 L | -203.5wins | -0.22per pick | 57cpaid | -43.2%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xa3c2…df3dbacked Yes | 40c | 26.29$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.4 | 1,840 | 37%681 W · 1,159 L | -8.2wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x069e…4636backed No | 71c | 24.93$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.24 | 34 | 47.1%16 W · 18 L | +3.2wins | +0.09per pick | 38cpaid | +21.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5ea1…435ebacked No | 61c | 23.62$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.29 | 37 | 45.9%17 W · 20 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa22f…af41backed No | 60c | 23.19$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.24 | 120 | 57.5%69 W · 51 L | -8.1wins | -0.07per pick | 64cpaid | -11%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2097…8063backed No | 59c | 21.42$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.86 | 96 | 68.8%66 W · 30 L | -1.2wins | -0.01per pick | 70cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xae47…638dbacked No | 62c | 20.69$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.79 | 525 | 71.2%374 W · 151 L | +4.7wins | +0.01per pick | 70cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf2bb…ae21backed Yes | 51c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.2 | 353 | 62.9%222 W · 131 L | +16.9wins | +0.05per pick | 58cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2f93…07b1backed No | 54c | 19.55$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9 | 15 | 33.3%5 W · 10 L | -1.3wins | -0.09per pick | 42cpaid | -27.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8be9…845fbacked No | 56c | 18.79$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.27 | 60 | 63.3%38 W · 22 L | +3.9wins | +0.07per pick | 57cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x625f…5c20backed No | 65c | 18.62$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.56 | 96 | 66.7%64 W · 32 L | -5.7wins | -0.06per pick | 73cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf211…385dbacked No | 66c | 16.72$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.76 | 70 | 40%28 W · 42 L | -3.3wins | -0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -22.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 86-87°F on April 16?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 80-81°F on April 16?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 82-83°F on April 16?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 84-85°F on April 16?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 88-89°F on April 16?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 90-91°F on April 16?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.