Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 84-85°F on April 16?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xd942af78363ec6f21b43c2bd74ff145aada08564ad0baa79ef5e988c2bd1816f
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $11,445
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $12,004
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $11,445 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 65 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 39c | 410.81$159 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$159.28 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd251…4d37backed Yes | 36c | 396.97$141 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$255.81 | 1,697 | 42.4%720 W · 977 L | +56.9wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | +11.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x213e…5e0fbacked Yes | 65c | 344.86$223 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$122.23 | 657 | 49.8%327 W · 330 L | -8.4wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 37c | 287.06$107 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$180.38 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8aa2…5a0bbacked No | 52c | 187.66$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98.16 | 1,420 | 58.7%833 W · 587 L | +69.1wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8c67…bb39backed Yes | 50c | 181.82$91 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$90.98 | 21 | 38.1%8 W · 13 L | -0.8wins | -0.04per pick | 42cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb06a…52f5backed Yes | 57c | 179.19$102 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76.92 | 5,832 | 36.7%2,138 W · 3,694 L | +211.1wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf8dc…f31fbacked Yes | 48c | 169.58$81 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$88.56 | 4,525 | 26.7%1,206 W · 3,319 L | +62.2wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcf37…993fbacked No | 25c | 166.45$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.57 | 656 | 25.8%169 W · 487 L | -13.2wins | -0.02per pick | 28cpaid | -35.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed Yes | 34c | 137.18$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$90.71 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xce5d…5b70backed Yes | 54c | 115.56$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.59 | 86 | 32.6%28 W · 58 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 32cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 33c | 107.02$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71.68 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x890d…7522backed Yes | 38c | 104.66$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.2 | 106 | 52.8%56 W · 50 L | +2.4wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x309c…09b5backed No | 30c | 99.99$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 288 | 39.9%115 W · 173 L | -13.1wins | -0.05per pick | 44cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x93b3…dc40backed No | 14c | 95.36$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.35 | 42 | 45.2%19 W · 23 L | +2.0wins | +0.05per pick | 40cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x906f…371abacked No | 65c | 86.96$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.43 | 2,495 | 69.9%1,744 W · 751 L | +80.3wins | +0.03per pick | 67cpaid | +5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1361…f12bbacked Yes | 30c | 80$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56 | 1,924 | 33.8%651 W · 1,273 L | +29.2wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | +1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3c2…df3dbacked Yes | 43c | 79.52$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.56 | 1,840 | 37%681 W · 1,159 L | -8.2wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa26f…1071backed Yes | 65c | 75.26$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.41 | 376 | 44.9%169 W · 207 L | +4.7wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 34c | 75$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.5 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 46c | 67.42$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.69 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x8f56…a97bbacked Yes | 48c | 66.39$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.22 | 58 | 34.5%20 W · 38 L | -4.4wins | -0.08per pick | 42cpaid | -20.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x74ea…b265backed Yes | 39c | 63.97$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.79 | 211 | 42.7%90 W · 121 L | +8.9wins | +0.04per pick | 38cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7bc1…ea87backed No | 63c | 59.78$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.67 | 28 | 46.4%13 W · 15 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x072f…86b1backed No | 70c | 54.07$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.1 | 111 | 51.4%57 W · 54 L | -8.0wins | -0.07per pick | 59cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2986…b3a9backed No | 30c | 50$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 2,995 | 31.4%940 W · 2,055 L | +41.6wins | +0.01per pick | 30cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2a3c…1b6fbacked Yes | 34c | 49.38$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.59 | 92 | 35.9%33 W · 59 L | +2.2wins | +0.02per pick | 34cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbe99…9ca7backed Yes | 36c | 47.04$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.91 | 669 | 26.2%175 W · 494 L | -1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 26cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd04c…c640backed No | 64c | 46.45$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.73 | 233 | 49.8%116 W · 117 L | -15.7wins | -0.07per pick | 57cpaid | -27%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2490…11a3backed No | 64c | 45.81$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.19 | 70 | 61.4%43 W · 27 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 63cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5da1…a003backed Yes | 32c | 44.73$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.42 | 171 | 38.6%66 W · 105 L | +4.0wins | +0.02per pick | 36cpaid | +7.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7e3a…55c4backed No | 62c | 43.39$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.81 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.18per pick | 43cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbff7…554fbacked No | 51c | 39.54$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.08 | 1,026 | 60.8%624 W · 402 L | +11.0wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf2cf…464bbacked Yes | 34c | 37.84$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.02 | 1,115 | 63.4%707 W · 408 L | +29.7wins | +0.03per pick | 61cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe07e…0e7ebacked No | 66c | 37.5$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.65 | 334 | 50.6%169 W · 165 L | +0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed No | 30c | 37.36$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.04 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xaa84…e985backed No | 66c | 35.74$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.52 | 407 | 39.3%160 W · 247 L | -11.2wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1230…8e43backed No | 68c | 35.7$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.19 | 151 | 55.6%84 W · 67 L | -1.8wins | -0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc24f…81d3backed No | 68c | 35.42$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.16 | 985 | 71%699 W · 286 L | +5.7wins | +0.01per pick | 70cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5b13…6e6abacked Yes | 36c | 34.9$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.48 | 31 | 38.7%12 W · 19 L | +2.1wins | +0.07per pick | 32cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0f15…0ce5backed No | 48c | 34.29$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.58 | 20 | 50%10 W · 10 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xae68…064abacked No | 65c | 33.96$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.08 | 2,555 | 63.8%1,631 W · 924 L | +38.4wins | +0.02per pick | 62cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1685…97abbacked No | 57c | 33.24$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.79 | 167 | 40.1%67 W · 100 L | +1.7wins | +0.01per pick | 39cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb34d…e1bdbacked No | 57c | 32$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.31 | 81 | 64.2%52 W · 29 L | +4.1wins | +0.05per pick | 59cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5c38…f194backed No | 34c | 32$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.74 | 2,517 | 47.2%1,188 W · 1,329 L | +52.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0633…d517backed No | 61c | 31.51$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.22 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.8wins | -0.20per pick | 45cpaid | -41.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7d9c…1450backed No | 77c | 29.5$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.72 | 142 | 51.4%73 W · 69 L | -21.9wins | -0.15per pick | 67cpaid | -29.8%equal weight | 35-0.13 edge/pick |
| 0xae47…638dbacked No | 67c | 27.8$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.55 | 525 | 71.2%374 W · 151 L | +4.7wins | +0.01per pick | 70cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3646…ba5abacked Yes | 46c | 25.25$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.66 | 407 | 41.3%168 W · 239 L | +32.5wins | +0.08per pick | 33cpaid | +21.9%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x01a6…59b0backed No | 66c | 24.64$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.26 | 1,679 | 61.7%1,036 W · 643 L | +6.3wins | 0.00per pick | 61cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc4f9…8d24backed No | 47c | 23.83$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.1 | 477 | 38.8%185 W · 292 L | +18.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0a1e…9095backed No | 64c | 22.61$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.46 | 173 | 76.3%132 W · 41 L | +11.7wins | +0.07per pick | 70cpaid | +8.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc52a…e37abacked No | 70c | 22.31$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.61 | 182 | 72%131 W · 51 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 73cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xef2e…10c3backed No | 67c | 21.27$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.25 | 402 | 42.5%171 W · 231 L | -12.4wins | -0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb345…23d5backed No | 52c | 21$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.92 | 16 | 62.5%10 W · 6 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 63cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8208…a737backed No | 65c | 19.17$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.51 | 226 | 75.7%171 W · 55 L | +9.0wins | +0.04per pick | 72cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x625f…5c20backed No | 66c | 18.32$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.08 | 96 | 66.7%64 W · 32 L | -5.7wins | -0.06per pick | 73cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2097…8063backed No | 64c | 18.17$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.63 | 96 | 68.8%66 W · 30 L | -1.2wins | -0.01per pick | 70cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd7cf…7825backed No | 69c | 17.17$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.85 | 289 | 54.3%157 W · 132 L | -8.1wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc6a9…2227backed No | 68c | 17.08$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.62 | 71 | 73.2%52 W · 19 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 74cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x83d1…685abacked No | 72c | 16.95$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.28 | 21 | 61.9%13 W · 8 L | -2.2wins | -0.10per pick | 72cpaid | -17%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9770…d57dbacked No | 68c | 16.47$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.27 | 486 | 72%350 W · 136 L | +9.4wins | +0.02per pick | 70cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x871d…a2e9backed No | 66c | 15.34$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.19 | 10 | 70%7 W · 3 L | +0.3wins | +0.03per pick | 67cpaid | +10.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb4f6…eadabacked No | 69c | 14.57$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.1 | 165 | 75.8%125 W · 40 L | +5.4wins | +0.03per pick | 72cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0f18…5b28backed No | 69c | 14.57$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.1 | 265 | 66.4%176 W · 89 L | +13.0wins | +0.05per pick | 62cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 84-85°F on April 16?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 80-81°F on April 16?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 82-83°F on April 16?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 86-87°F on April 16?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 88-89°F on April 16?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 90-91°F on April 16?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.