Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 17°C on June 12?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x61c876e97bad04fe380099df407591eb4c426679123c542f7866885e6fa1f02b
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $16,242
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $16,812
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $16,242 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 52 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xd06f…6719backed Yes | 8c | 1,474$112 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,361.78 | 920 | 28.7%264 W · 656 L | +29.5wins | +0.03per pick | 25cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x78ed…ab3abacked Yes | 5c | 1,156$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,100.94 | 402 | 26.9%108 W · 294 L | -5.5wins | -0.01per pick | 28cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5d6f…0e20backed Yes | 5c | 634.95$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$603.2 | 914 | 44.7%409 W · 505 L | +16.7wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | +4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed Yes | 17c | 277.11$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$230.32 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x41f6…828ebacked Yes | 12c | 267.37$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$235.51 | 451 | 30.8%139 W · 312 L | +33.3wins | +0.07per pick | 23cpaid | +9.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 39c | 252.38$99 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$152.93 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xeb68…e362backed Yes | 57c | 238.33$137 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$101.34 | 2,118 | 59.1%1,251 W · 867 L | +107.9wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3653…ef74backed Yes | 44c | 236$104 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$131.91 | 2,124 | 57.4%1,220 W · 904 L | +69.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked Yes | 7c | 207.7$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$192.83 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 78c | 204.5$159 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$158.62 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaa93…0bc7backed Yes | 6c | 199$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$187.2 | 3,859 | 23.4%903 W · 2,956 L | +128.4wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | +10%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked No | 10c | 189.26$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.48 | 4,347 | 29.7%1,293 W · 3,054 L | +19.8wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1abc…45e7backed Yes | 26c | 166.18$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$123.76 | 2,099 | 58.3%1,224 W · 875 L | +83.2wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 14c | 163.88$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$140.71 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdcb9…1879backed Yes | 65c | 160$105 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.38 | 43 | 93%40 W · 3 L | +14.6wins | +0.34per pick | 59cpaid | +59.4%equal weight | 74+0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed Yes | 21c | 142.81$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$112.71 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked No | 73c | 141.03$103 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$103.24 | 3,474 | 33.9%1,177 W · 2,297 L | -175.6wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x764b…6badbacked No | 75c | 139.97$105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$105.42 | 3,755 | 61.1%2,293 W · 1,462 L | -36.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed No | 61c | 137.89$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$83.89 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 44c | 137$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.6 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4e72…ffb9backed No | 18c | 136.46$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.68 | 2,102 | 56.5%1,188 W · 914 L | +61.4wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5470…0af7backed No | 75c | 134.07$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.97 | 328 | 72%236 W · 92 L | -2.0wins | -0.01per pick | 73cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8b5d…57d3backed Yes | 26c | 106.12$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78.71 | 743 | 38.2%284 W · 459 L | +17.8wins | +0.02per pick | 36cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1f85…7b02backed Yes | 46c | 105.51$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.64 | 2,068 | 55.9%1,156 W · 912 L | +44.2wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x54a0…4134backed Yes | 30c | 98.74$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.74 | 148 | 23%34 W · 114 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 23cpaid | -26%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2e9d…e9f4backed Yes | 72c | 89.89$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.34 | 33 | 90.9%30 W · 3 L | +10.4wins | +0.32per pick | 59cpaid | +71.6%equal weight | 70+0.18 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed Yes | 68c | 82.95$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.64 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7211…6734backed Yes | 22c | 81$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.18 | 47 | 44.7%21 W · 26 L | -1.3wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -16.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 20c | 78.86$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.88 | 2,823 | 11.2%316 W · 2,507 L | +17.7wins | +0.01per pick | 11cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x16c7…22cdbacked Yes | 19c | 76.43$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.57 | 2,075 | 58.9%1,223 W · 852 L | +102.1wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfd8e…aea4backed No | 78c | 70$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.6 | 2,268 | 79.5%1,803 W · 465 L | +98.4wins | +0.04per pick | 75cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe8b9…3afcbacked Yes | 20c | 68.75$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.15 | 204 | 38.7%79 W · 125 L | -6.9wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x37e9…ab9fbacked Yes | 20c | 60$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.27 | 245 | 42.9%105 W · 140 L | +5.9wins | +0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x234c…90dbbacked Yes | 17c | 58.65$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.65 | 581 | 38.9%226 W · 355 L | +10.9wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7df0…3b5dbacked Yes | 23c | 53.89$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.67 | 137 | 38.7%53 W · 84 L | +13.3wins | +0.10per pick | 29cpaid | +32.5%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xd6e2…7d4fbacked Yes | 22c | 50$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.15 | 485 | 23.7%115 W · 370 L | -18.3wins | -0.04per pick | 27cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xaf93…5d2abacked No | 68c | 49.99$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.99 | 89 | 62.9%56 W · 33 L | -2.9wins | -0.03per pick | 66cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x82e7…f552backed Yes | 31c | 49.59$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.02 | 354 | 41%145 W · 209 L | -19.3wins | -0.05per pick | 46cpaid | -22.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe59d…b97bbacked Yes | 32c | 45.45$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.91 | 524 | 46.2%242 W · 282 L | +2.9wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe91b…8833backed Yes | 34c | 44.08$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.08 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +1.2wins | +0.30per pick | 45cpaid | +63.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4174…18fabacked No | 62c | 35.43$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.79 | 1,079 | 61.2%660 W · 419 L | -5.7wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x170b…4737backed No | 51c | 30$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.25 | 809 | 57.6%466 W · 343 L | -19.4wins | -0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x63fd…0047backed No | 70c | 29$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.4 | 11 | 63.6%7 W · 4 L | -1.0wins | -0.09per pick | 73cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed No | 71c | 23.14$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.39 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xadd7…8622backed No | 76c | 22.91$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.45 | 177 | 66.7%118 W · 59 L | -0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 67cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0a0c…a853backed No | 70c | 21.52$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 2,249 | 34.2%769 W · 1,480 L | +11.6wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x945a…a48cbacked No | 78c | 20.62$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.05 | 926 | 2.5%23 W · 903 L | -379.9wins | -0.41per pick | 44cpaid | -90.2%equal weight | 6-0.40 edge/pick |
| 0x8f5d…3384backed No | 73c | 20$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.6 | 282 | 70.2%198 W · 84 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 70cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdc4d…50b1backed No | 69c | 17.49$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.07 | 129 | 72.1%93 W · 36 L | +3.5wins | +0.03per pick | 69cpaid | +4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd1a6…1507backed No | 70c | 16.41$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.51 | 2,626 | 54%1,418 W · 1,208 L | -56.4wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdedd…17e1backed No | 73c | 15$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.95 | 2,432 | 60.4%1,470 W · 962 L | +30.2wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x570c…91c5backed No | 71c | 15$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.7 | 711 | 59.2%421 W · 290 L | -9.5wins | -0.01per pick | 61cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Munich be 17°C on June 12?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Munich be 13°C on June 12?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Munich be 14°C on June 12?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Munich be 15°C on June 12?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Munich be 16°C on June 12?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Munich be 18°C or higher on June 12?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.